Tag Archives: normal

3-year trends to March 2018

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Hot and rather dry

3-year trends to March 2018.

March raw anomaly data (orange)

March 2018 was more like January than February. Day and night temperature anomalies were high. Moisture anomalies retreated somewhat from very low values. Subsoil temperature moved back from low to normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

In the latest fully-smoothed data, for September 2017, temperatures, which had been static, began to increase. On the other had, moisture anomalies, which had been moving up the graphs towards drought, became static.

Earlier, the month of February 2017 marked a sharp reversal of trend in climate anomalies. Daily maximum temperature anomaly peaked. Most anomalies (not rainfall) retraced in March and April the values of January and December. The curvature of the trace (relative to daily maximum temperature anomaly) kept the same sense after April 2107 as before December 2016. For subsoil temperature anomaly, the trend reversal came four months later, in June 2017.

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to February 2018

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Warm

3-year trends to February 2018

February raw anomaly data (orange)

February 2018, unlike January, had days that were not very hot and nights with normal temperature. Rainfall rose to a normal value. Continuing low moisture was shown only by a very low dew point and a wide daily temperature range.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Data for winter (JJA) 2017

These latest of the fully-smoothed data points showed that last winter was near-normal and changing little in most respects. Both dew point and temperature range were moving up their graphs towards aridity. Daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature were cooling.

Main patterns of fully-smoothed data

In this period, the only major departure from normal climate was the cool moist winter (JJA) of 2016. Loops in the top four graphs show that more moisture preceded lower temperature. Minima in daily minimum temperature and in subsoil temperature came several months later, at the end of spring.

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

June 2017 not as wet as in 2016

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by
Close-up Australian magpie

Thieving Magpie

The month began cool, but became warm in the second half. The only unusual daily temperature was the early morning reading of 12.0° on the 29th, 10.0° above normal. There were ten frosts, when there are normally thirteen. On several mornings there was fog in the valley.
Seven days (normally six) registered rain over 0.2 mm. Significant falls came around the 12th and the 29th. On the 29th, the reading was 23.4 mm, but the rain extended over more than one day, totalling 39 mm. It was neither steady nor heavy, but unusually persistent. At Tamworth, rain fell in 27 hours out of 30.

Weather log for June 2017

Comparing June months

June of 2016 had been the wettest and most cloudy of the new century, with warm nights and cold days to match. This June, while moist, was close to normal. It was very like June 2015 and June 2014.
The month’s total rainfall of 62.8 mm was at the 75th percentile, well above the June average of 44 mm. There are no shortages of rainfall for groups of months to this date.

Climate for June months

Data. A Bureau of Meteorology automatic rain gauge operates in the museum yard. From 17 March 2017, 9 am daily readings are published as Manilla Museum, Station 55312.  These reports use that rainfall data when it is available. Since that gauge records “0.2 mm” on many rainless days, I cannot call those days rain days if the monthly count of rain days is not to show a sudden jump to record-breaking numbers.

All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

Summer 2015-16 cool then warm

Posted in Manilla NSW, Season Weather by
Photo of San Pedro cactus blooming

San Pedro cactus blooms

Taken as a whole, this summer was nearer to normal than last summer. Several numbers were close to average: daily maximum temperature, daily mean temperature, daily minimum temperature, and daily temperature range. The mean early morning dew point was rather low, while the cloudiness and total rainfall were a little high.
There were two very hot days over 40° (the usual number) and 29 hot days over 35° (just 6 more than usual).

Weather log for summer 2015-16A very cool spell came in early December, between other cool spells in late November and late December. Then, from mid-February through to early autumn, the weather was very warm. With this warmth came dry air, a wide daily temperature range, and sunny skies.
The total rainfall of 253.6 mm was above the summer average of 227 mm. After 20 rain days (the usual number), rainfall ceased on the 4th of February. Had it continued, the total might have reached a very wet 350 mm.

Climate log for summer 2015-16.

All data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla. Rainfall data up to 26/3/15 is from Manilla Post Office, Station 055031.

September 2015 cold and dry

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by
Photo of native clematis

Native clematis

Few days or nights in September were warmer than normal. The 23rd was a very cold day (17.1°) and the 24th had a very cold morning (-0.1°). The weekly temperature was near normal in the third week, but it had been cool in the first. It was cold (4.7 below normal) in the fourth week, and was rising through normal at the month’s end.
As is usual in September, most days were fine, and they were much warmer than the nights. The afternoon humidity was low (24%), but not nearly as low as in 2013 (15%).
Rain fell on only four days, with the highest reading 8.6 mm on the 4th.

Weather log for September 2015

 Comparing September months

In a dramatic change from August, both days and nights were very cold, as they were in September 2004.
The aridity was not quite as bad as in 2013, when the dew point was lower and there was less cloud.
Such cold, dry conditions are not those of an El Niño event (hot and dry) or of a La Niña event (cold and wet). If more extreme, they would be those of a glacial period.
The rainfall of 15.9 mm was well below average, in the 22nd percentile. There are still no serious shortages in rainfall totals for small numbers of months. A severe shortage (4th percentile) has appeared in the 30 month total (1186 mm). There are still deep ponds in Greenhatch Creek.

Climate for September 2015

Data. All data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla. Rainfall data up to 26/3/15 is from Manilla Post Office, Station 055031.