March 2015 was hot

Photo of bird in a gum tree

Blue-faced honeyeater in a White Box tree

March had 5 hot days over 35°: more than January (2) or February (3), but less than December (7) or November (10!). On the 20th the temperature reached 40.0°, making it the hottest March day of the century, 10.2° above normal. It came in a warm spell, with a weekly mean temperature 3.6° above normal. Some days had extremely low humidity, with afternoon values below 10%. The morning dew point on the 28th, minus 4.2°, was the lowest March value.
There were five rain days, with the highest reading 22.0 mm on the 12th.

Weather log for March 2015

Comparing March months

The average daily maximum temperature, at 31.8°, was the hottest of any March in this short record. It was almost the same as in each of the months of this summer, but not as high as that of last November (33.9°). The daily mean temperature (23.6°) was also the highest for March, just beating the 23.4° of March 2000. Night temperatures were normal, making the daily temperature range wider than normal. The mean early morning dew point of 8.3° was a record low value.
The total rainfall of 35.8 mm, while well below the average of 53 mm, is quite normal. It is in the 46th percentile: nearly half of all March totals were lower. Among rainfall totals for more than one month, there is little change. Again, the only serious shortage is in the 24-month total, which is now in the 5th percentile.

Climate for March 2015


Data. Rainfall data up to 26/3/15 is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash  Street, Manilla.

Spring 2014 dry and hotter

Weather log for spring 2014

Warm weather developed in early October, followed by a cool spell with one rain day of 26.4 mm. After that came three hot spells. There were showers and storms in the district, but little more rain fell at Manilla.
This spring was slightly hotter than spring 2013 and spring 2009, but not as hot as spring 2002. The air was not as extremely arid (dew point 3.6°) as in last spring (dew point 2.3°), and skies were a little more cloudy.
The total rainfall of 69.8 mm was in the 8th percentile: the 10th lowest spring rainfall. (Spring 2002 had been equal 5th lowest at 66 mm, and spring 1957 the lowest at 23 mm.) Rain fell on 11 days: more than in spring of 2002 (9 days), but fewer than in 2013 (13).

Climate for spring 2014


Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperature, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

Still hot and dry in November 2014

Silky oak trees in full bloom

November Silky Oaks

Although the month began near normal, with two rain days, the weather became hot and dry again. Saturday the 22nd reached 41.4°, to be the second hottest November day on this 15-year record.
There were two heat waves, with the average weekly temperature above normal by 6.1° on the 12th and by 7.0° on Sunday the 23rd. (November of 2009 had a worse heat wave, being above normal by 9.5°, and reaching 31.3°: the hottest week in any month.)
Most nights this month were warm, with low dew points. By contrast, many days were cloudy.

 Weather log November 2014

Comparing November months

On average, the month was not quite as hot as November 2009, the hottest this century. The air was again very dry, with an early morning dew point of 7.1°, a little higher than the lowest value (5.7°) recorded for November last year.
Following only three years after the wettest November on the 130-year record (242.9 mm), the total rainfall of only 24 mm was in the 15th percentile. That is, such low November rainfalls happen about one year in seven. However, the time since a lower November rainfall (15 mm in November 1990) is thirteen years: the longest gap ever.
For the third month in a row, little changed in rainfall totals for periods of more than one month. There is no longer a serious shortage in the 6-month total (now in the 10th percentile) but there are now serious shortages in the totals for 5 months (9th percentile), 9 months (8th percentile), 15 months (6th percentile), 18 months (6th percentile), and 30 months (9th percentile). There is one severe shortage: the total for 12 months (393 mm) is in the 4th percentile.

Climate fro November 2014


Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash  Street, Manilla.

October 2014 hot and dry

Blooms of Melia azedarach

Fragrant white cedar blooms

The month began with a warm spell, which was followed by a cool spell about the 15th. It ended with a long hot spell, 4.8 degrees above normal, including the hottest October day this century (38.1°) on the 26th. As usual, there were no frosts.

Of three rain days (usually seven), only the 14th had much rain: 26.4 mm, with heavy showers.
Half the mornings had no cloud at all, and nine days had very wide temperature ranges, greater than 20°.

Weather log October 2014

 Comparing October months

This was the hottest October month at Manilla in this 16-year record. Maximum, mean and minimum temperatures were all highest values, but the maximum was no higher than in October 2007. The subsoil temperature returned to a value below normal.
As indicators of low moisture, the daily temperature range was very high and cloudiness and dew point were very low, as in the last two October months. Even less cloud had been seen in 2002 and 2004.
Recently, lower rainfall occurred in October 2002 (15.0 mm), 2012 (12.6 mm), and 2013 (15.0 mm). However, this month’s total of 27.0 mm is well below the October average of 58 mm, in the 21st percentile. Since last month, little has changed in rainfall totals for periods of more than one month. There is still a serious shortage in the 6-month total (8th percentile) but not now in the 9-month total (10th percentile). The 15-month total has advanced to severe (4th percentile), while the 18-month total has retreated to serious (5th percentile). A serious shortage has also appeared in the 30-month total (8th percentile).

Climate October 2014  


Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash  Street, Manilla.

September 2014 cool and dry

Acacia decora hedge

A hedge of western golden wattle

The daily weather log

Two 5-day cool spells began on the 2nd and the 17th. Days and nights were both three or four degrees cooler than normal. At the same time, the air was very dry: a new lowest September dew point of minus 8.1° came on the 19th.
At other times, temperatures were near normal. There were four frosts (normally three). There were four rain days, which is normal.
The first thirty-degree day since mid-winter came on the 30th. At Manilla, it often comes near the spring equinox (September 22nd). In the 21st century, the first thirty-degree day came as early as August 23rd in 2009 and as late as November 9th in 2010.

Weather log September 2014.

 Comparing September months

Last September had been the warmest in this century. While not cold like September 2004, this month was half a degree cooler than normal. Like September in 2003, 2007, and 2012, it was both cool and dry. By contrast, the cool Septembers of 2010 and 2011 were wet, affected by La Nina.
Cloudiness and daily temperature range were near normal, but the mean dew point (1.4°) was not much higher than the extreme low value (0.6°) set last year.
The total rainfall of 18.8 mm is in the 26th percentile, well below the September average of 41 mm. Totals for periods of more than one month now have serious shortages for six months (7th percentile), nine months (7th percentile), and fifteen months (5th percentile), and a severe shortage for eighteen months (4th percentile).

The current drought report (6/10/2014) of the Bureau of Meteorology shows some serious and severe rainfall deficiencies in the area. Ten-month deficiencies extend west to Manilla from the Northern Tablelands, and there are 24-month rainfall deficiencies near Manilla and widespread around Walgett, 300 km to the north-west.

Climate September 2014.  


Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash  Street, Manilla.

Winter 2014 normal

Berries on a melia tree

Chinaberries in winter

This winter, there were no very warm or very cold spells. There was one sunny spell with a wide daily temperature range in early August, followed by a week with a narrow temperature range.
There were 38 frosts. While this is below the 16-year winter average of 44, it is near the average for the last seven winters. From 2001 to 2006 the winter average was higher: 47 frosts.
Rain fell on 15 days (normal), with a highest reading of 26.6 mm, which is also normal in winter.Weather log for winter 2014

Seasonal means and totals were all not far from normal except for the dew point. The dew point of 0.7 degrees was more than two degrees low, showing extremely dry air, as in winter 2012. The daily minimum temperature was almost a degree high, reducing the temperature range and raising the mean temperature as well.

The winter rainfall total of 106 mm is just below the average (125 mm) and in the 40th percentile.

Climate for winter 2014


Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperature, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

August 2014 normal but with dry air

The daily weather log

Purple flowers

Early-blooming Hardenbergia

The weekly temperature was normal throughout, but the first half of the month had sunny warm days, cold nights and very dry air. The night of the 3rd (-4.0°) was the coldest August night this century, and the early morning of the 12th had the lowest August dew point (-8.7°). Two brief overcast and rainy spells began on the 16th and 26th, yielding 54.4 mm in five rain days. The reading of 26.6 mm on the 17th was one of the highest for August in recent years.
The number of frosts (12) was a little below normal (15).

Weather log August 2014

 Comparing August months

While August 2008 had been the coolest, and August 2009 the warmest in the 21st century, nearly all averages this month were near normal. As exceptions, the daily maximum temperature was slightly low and the dew point (as in the two previous August months) was very low. Few mornings had dew on the grass.
The total rainfall of 54.4 mm is in the 75th percentile, well above the August average (40 mm). This rain also raised the rainfall totals for periods of more than one month, so that only the 18-month total of 691 mm now remains as a serious shortage (9th percentile).

Climate August 2014  


Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash  Street, Manilla.