Category Archives: 3-year climate trends

3-year trends to August 2020

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

August narrow temperature range

3-year climate anomaly trends to August 2020

August raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes), was just below normal.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): was just above normal.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): was above normal.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left) was normal.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right) was more cloudy than normal.
Dew point anomaly (middle left) was normal.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right) was extremely narrow (humid).

 Fully smoothed data values (red) 

Fully-smoothed data for the summer (DJF) of 2019-20 shows that the daily maximum temperature anomaly continued to fall from the record value of October 2019. The daily minimum and subsoil values were static.
All the moisture indicators (rainfall, cloud, dew point, and daily temperature range) continued to move downward, showing decreasing drought.
The partially-smoothed anomaly values through the autumn and winter were near normal. They were not nearly moist enough nor cool enough to relieve the on-going drought that had peaked with high temperature and low moisture anomalies in 1918-19.

Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

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3-year trends to July 2020

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

July: warm and humid

3-year climate trends to July 2020 at Manilla

July raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes), remained near +1 deg.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): rose very high (+2.5 deg).
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): remained very high.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left) just below normal.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): near normal.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): just above normal.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right) low (humid).

 Fully smoothed data values (red) 

Fully-smoothed data for January 2020 shows that the daily maximum temperature anomaly continued to fall from the record value of October 2019. The daily minimum and subsoil values were static.
All the moisture indicators (rainfall, cloud, dew point, and daily temperature range) continued to move downward, showing decreasing drought.

Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

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3-year trends to June 2020

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

June: again warm and dry

3-year climate trends at Manilla

June raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes), having been negative for three months, returned to positive.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): returned from normal to positive.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): returned from normal to positive.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left) returned from normal to negative (dry).
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): returned from high (cloudy) to near normal.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): remained normal.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right) returned from narrow to near normal.

 Fully smoothed data values (red) 

Fully-smoothed data for December 2019 shows that only the daily minimum temperature was increasing. Other temperatures became cooler, and all the moisture indicators (rainfall, cloud, dew point, and daily temperature range) moved downward, showing decreasing drought.

[Note.
Due to illness, 45 days were missed for some Manilla values, mainly in April 2020. No values were noted for cloud or soil temperature; daily maximum and minimum air temperatures were estimated by regression on values from Tamworth Airport Automatic Weather Service.]

Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

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3-year trends to May 2020

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

May, like March and April, continued cool

May raw anomaly data (orange)

Current raw anomaly values for May appeared very little changed from those of March and April. However, as noted below, many values are estimates only.

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes), which had been very high until January, remained near -1.5°.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): stayed at normal.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): stayed at normal.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left) stayed near normal.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): remained high.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): remained normal.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right) stayed low, near -1.5°.

 Fully smoothed data values (red) 

Fully-smoothed data is now available for the spring season (SON) of 2019. Taking the season as a whole, smoothed daily maximum temperature anomaly peaked (at the 21st-century record value of +2.21°) in October, while daily minimum temperature rose, and subsoil temperature fell. A steady movement away from extreme drought affected rainfall, cloudiness, dew point, and daily temperature range (lower).

[Note.
Due to illness, 45 days were missed for some Manilla values, from 23/3/20 to 8/5/20. No values were noted for cloud or soil temperature; daily maximum and minimum air temperatures were estimated by regression on values from Tamworth Airport Automatic Weather Service.]

Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

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3-year trends to April 2020

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

April, like March, continued cool

April raw anomaly data (orange)

Current raw anomaly values for April appeared very little changed from those of March. However, as noted below, many values are estimates only.

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes), which had been very high until January, remained near -1.5°.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): stayed just below normal.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): stayed near normal.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left) stayed near normal.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): fell from very high to high.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): remained normal.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right) stayed near -1.5°.

 Fully smoothed data values (red) 

The fully-smoothed daily maximum temperature anomaly for October 2019 again broke the 21st century record, reaching a value of 2.21° above normal. The daily minimum anomaly also rose, but the subsoil anomaly fell. Despite the high and increasing air temperatures, smoothed moisture anomalies for October 2019 did not move further towards drought.

[Note.
Due to illness, 45 days were missed for some Manilla values for the whole of April 2020. No values were noted for cloud or soil temperature; daily maximum and minimum air temperatures were estimated by regression on values from Tamworth Airport Automatic Weather Service.]

Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

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