3-year trends to May 2018

Warm and Very Dry

3-year trends to May 2018

May raw anomaly data (orange)

The raw maximum temperature anomaly for May 2018 was rather high, as was that of the subsoil. The anomaly of daily minimum temperature was low. Very low moisture was shown by the rainfall, daily temperature range, and dew point anomalies, but cloudiness was normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Fully-smoothed data are now available for the spring months (SON) of 2017. In that season, all three temperatures were within their normal range. Both air temperatures were rising, but subsoil temperature was falling.
Rainfall was moving up the graph to less than normal (i.e. arid). The other three moisture measures were moving down their graphs towards humidity: cloudiness more than normal (i.e. humid), dew point still less than normal (i.e. arid), and daily temperature range still wider than normal (i.e. arid).


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to April 2018

Hot and sunny

3-year trends to April 2018

April raw anomaly data (orange)

Raw temperature anomaly values for April 2018 were very high for daily maxima, daily minima and subsoil. Rather low moisture was shown by the rainfall and daily temperature range anomalies, while cloudiness was very low (sunny days), but dew point was near normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

In the latest fully-smoothed data, for October 2017, while rainfall anomaly continued to move up its graph towards dryness, the other three moisture anomalies (cloudy days, dew point, and daily temperature range) had just begun to move down towards wetness.
For temperatures, both daily maximum anomaly and daily minimum anomaly were rising rapidly. Subsoil temperature anomaly continued the rapid fall from its peak value (normal) in June 2017.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to March 2018

Hot and rather dry

3-year trends to March 2018.

March raw anomaly data (orange)

March 2018 was more like January than February. Day and night temperature anomalies were high. Moisture anomalies retreated somewhat from very low values. Subsoil temperature moved back from low to normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

In the latest fully-smoothed data, for September 2017, temperatures, which had been static, began to increase. On the other had, moisture anomalies, which had been moving up the graphs towards drought, became static.

Earlier, the month of February 2017 marked a sharp reversal of trend in climate anomalies. Daily maximum temperature anomaly peaked. Most anomalies (not rainfall) retraced in March and April the values of January and December. The curvature of the trace (relative to daily maximum temperature anomaly) kept the same sense after April 2107 as before December 2016. For subsoil temperature anomaly, the trend reversal came four months later, in June 2017.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to February 2018

Warm

3-year trends to February 2018

February raw anomaly data (orange)

February 2018, unlike January, had days that were not very hot and nights with normal temperature. Rainfall rose to a normal value. Continuing low moisture was shown only by a very low dew point and a wide daily temperature range.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Data for winter (JJA) 2017

These latest of the fully-smoothed data points showed that last winter was near-normal and changing little in most respects. Both dew point and temperature range were moving up their graphs towards aridity. Daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature were cooling.

Main patterns of fully-smoothed data

In this period, the only major departure from normal climate was the cool moist winter (JJA) of 2016. Loops in the top four graphs show that more moisture preceded lower temperature. Minima in daily minimum temperature and in subsoil temperature came several months later, at the end of spring.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to January 2018

Hot and dry

3-year trends to January 2018

January raw anomaly data (orange)

January 2018, like December, had hot days and hot nights, but had even lower rainfall.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

The latest fully-smoothed data point is for July 2017.
Most variables were normal and static at that time. Dew point was low and falling, while daily temperature range was rather high and rising.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to December 2017

Hot days and nights

3-year trends to December 2017

December raw anomaly data (orange)

December 2017 had hot days and hot nights, but the subsoil remained cold. Rainfall was low, while other measures of moisture were near normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

The latest fully-smoothed data point is for June 2017. By that time, all variables were within the normal range except for dew point. Even dew point was in the centre of the range of low values that has become “normal” since 2010. Three variables were static: daily maximum temperature, subsoil temperature, and rainfall. Cloudiness, dew point, and daily temperature range. were moving towards aridity. Daily minimum temperature was falling.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to November 2017

Dry with cold nights

3-year trends to November 2017

November raw anomaly data (orange)

November 2017 reverted to the anomalies of August and September: low moisture (top four graphs) and cold nights (bottom left), with continuing cold subsoil (bottom right). Day temperature (x-axes)had cooled to normal since September.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Anomaly data for autumn 2017 (MAM) are now fully-smoothed, plotted in red. That season was near the centre for the last three years, but day temperatures fell from high towards normal (seen best on the top right graph). Meanwhile, moisture measures disagreed somewhat. Rainfall rose towards normal, cloudiness decreased towards normal, dew point fell through low values, and daily temperature range was static near normal.
Daily minimum temperature fell towards normal, and subsoil temperature rose to normal.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.