3-year trends to August 2019

Summer record hot-dry (as smoothed)

3-year climate trends to August 2019

August raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes): near the maximum for smoothed values.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): near normal.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): very high.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left): very low.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): normal.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): low, like the other recent values.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right): very high.

 Latest fully smoothed data (red), summer 2018-19

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly peaked at a record +1.79° in January.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly held the record vaue of +2.16° through January and February.
Subsoil rose rapidly from normal.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall smoothed anomaly peaked negative in January at the record value of minus 31.75 mm per month.
Cloudiness was normal.
Dew point was low.
Daily temperature range was normal.


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

Smoothing Continue reading

Hot and dry records in January 2019

In January 2019, the smoothed anomaly value of monthly rainfall reached a record low (-31.8 mm/month), and that of monthly mean maximum temperature a record high (+1.79°).

Rainfall and temperature trajectory Sep2016 toFeb 2019

[This graph is extracted from a forthcoming post in the series “3-year trends…”. ]

This graph shows temperature and rainfall anomalies, not raw data. It shows how far the actual values differ from normal. The 30 data points from September 2016 to February 2019 (coloured red) are smoothed to show only cycles longer than one year.

The earliest data point, September 2016, had temperature and rainfall just beyond the normal range on the cool and wet side (lower left). Since that date, all the smoothed data points have fallen close to the sloping Mackellar trend line (blue) from cool-wet to hot-dry. (See the note below: Mackellar trend line.)
In the 4 months up to January 2017, warming and drying was rapid, passing completely through the “normal” range. Next, some cooling and wetting occurred to May 2017, then warming and drying resumed to a full drought in March 2018. Through the year 2018, drought prevailed, with a rainfall anomaly always below -25 mm. The temperature anomaly fell to only +1 deg by August, but rose again while rainfall fell. Records for low rainfall and high temperature were broken repeatedly.
January 2019 had the lowest smoothed monthly rainfall anomaly of the 21st century (-31.8 mm/month), and the highest monthly mean maximum temperature (+1.79°).
The following month, February 2019, had a slightly decreased temperature anomaly, and an increased rainfall anomaly. Later data points with less smoothing applied suggest that the smoothed record values of January may stand for some time.


Note.

Mackellar trend line

The insight of Dorothea Mackellar that this is a land “of droughts and flooding rains” *
is expressed in these graphs by a blue trend line passing through the “Normal” point in the centre (aqua) and extending both to “Droughts” with high temperature and low rainfall at the top right and to “Flooding Rains” with low temperature and high rainfall at the bottom left. Smoothed data points for anomalies of mean monthly daily maximum temperature and monthly rainfall totals generally lie close to the sloping blue line in such graphs for all of the last 20 years. (Search “3-year climate trends”, this one, for example).

Notice that record high and low values of smoothed anomalies of rainfall and daily maximum temperature (dates marked in blue) lie close the this blue line, supporting the estimate.
Empirically, one degree of increase in temperature anomaly matches 20 mm of decrease in monthly rainfall anomaly: the Mackellar Constant for Manilla is -20mm/month/degree.

* By arrangement with the Licensor, The Dorothea Mackellar Estate, c/- Curtis Brown (Aust) Pty Ltd.

3-year trends to July 2019

Record dry and warm (as smoothed)

3-year climate trends to July 2019

July raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes): above the maximum for smoothed values.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): just above the upper limit of normal values.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): very high.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left): very low.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): normal.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): low, like the other recent values.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right): very high.

 Latest fully smoothed data (red), January 2019

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature was a new record positive value of +1.79 deg, beating +1.62 deg set in March and December 2018.
Daily minimum temperature set a new record of +2.18 deg, beating +1.98 deg set the previous month.
Subsoil was normal due to phase lag.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall smoothed anomaly was a new 136-year record value of minus 31.75 mm per month, breaking the record of minus 30.8 mm set the previous month.
Cloudiness was normal.
Dew point was low.
Daily temperature range was normal.


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

Smoothing Continue reading

3-year trends to June 2019

June warm and dry

3-yeqr climate trends to June 2019

June raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes): near the upper limit of normal values.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): near the upper limit of normal values.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): very high.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left): very low.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): normal.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): low, like the other recent values.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right): normal.

 Latest fully smoothed data (red), December 2018

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature equaled the record positive value of +1.62° set in March 2018.
Daily minimum temperature set a new record of +1.98°, beating +1.65° set the previous month.
Subsoil was normal due to phase lag.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall smoothed anomaly was a new 136-year record value of -30.8 mm per month, breaking the record of -29.7 mm set the previous month.
Cloudiness was normal.
Dew point was low.
Daily temperature range was normal.


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

Smoothing

Smoothing uses Gaussian functions.
For fully smoothed data the function has a Standard Deviation of 2.5 months, it spans 13 monthly data points, and has a half-width of 6 months, which suppresses cycles shorter than 12 months. For partly smoothed data, the span of the function is reduced to 11 months, 9 months and so on.
Continue reading

3-year trends to May 2019

May days not warm

3-year trends to May 2019

May raw anomaly data (orange)

In May 2019, the anomaly of daily maximum temperature returned to zero after years of positive values. Both daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature anomalies were very high. Moisture anomalies, reflecting the high rainfall value (+21 mm), were low on the graphs (away from drought), but dew point was not as far down as “normal”.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Fully-smoothed data now include the spring season ending November 2018.
Both daily maximum and daily minimum temperature anomalies were very high and rising. The minimum was rising faster and broke the record of +1.65°. Subsoil temperature anomaly, due to a phase lag, was normal and still slowly falling.
Moisture indicators in this spring were inconsistent. Rainfall anomaly decreased slowly to a new (20th century) record of minus 29.7 mm. The dew point anomaly was also low, but rapidly increasing. Both the cloudiness and the daily temperature range were normal.


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

Smoothing

Smoothing uses Gaussian functions.
For fully smoothed data the function has a Standard Deviation of 2.5 months, it spans 13 monthly data points, and has a half-width of 6 months, which suppresses cycles shorter than 12 months. For partly smoothed data, the span of the function is reduced to 11 months, 9 months and so on.
Continue reading

3-year trends to April 2019

April no rain

3-year trends to April 2019

April raw anomaly data (orange)

In April 2019, a rainfall total of zero made the raw anomaly for rainfall minus 40 mm. Rainfall, and the other moisture indicators (cloudiness, dew point, and daily temperature range) were much further up the graphs towards drought than they had been in March.
Daily maximum, minimum and subsoil temperatures were high, near the high-side limits of (smoothed) normal temperature.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Fully smoothed data to October 2018 show rainfall just short of the record negative anomaly set in May 2018, and both maximum and minimum temperatures near record positive anomalies. However, cloudiness, dew point, and daily temperature range continued a movement (down) away from drought.


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

Smoothing

Smoothing uses Gaussian functions.
For fully smoothed data the function has a Standard Deviation of 2.5 months, it spans 13 monthly data points, and has a half-width of 6 months, which suppresses cycles shorter than 12 months. For partly smoothed data, the span of the function is reduced to 11 months, 9 months and so on.
Continue reading

3-year trends to March 2019

March warm

3-year trends to March 2019

March raw anomaly data (orange)

In March 2019, the raw anomaly for daily maximum temperature was near the upper limit for normal. Daily minimum and subsoil temperatures were high. Rainfall and other moisture measures were near normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Fully smoothed data to September 2018 (except daily minimum temperature anomaly) showed a movement away from drought. More recent data, only partially smoothed, suggest that temperatures and rainfall later returned towards drought.


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

Smoothing

Smoothing uses Gaussian functions.
For fully smoothed data the function has a Standard Deviation of 2.5 months, it spans 13 monthly data points, and has a half-width of 6 months, which suppresses cycles shorter than 12 months. For partly smoothed data, the span of the function is reduced to 11 months, 9 months and so on.
Continue reading