November 2018 began hot

A King Parrot feeding in a Hopbush

King Parrot in Hop Bush

The month began hot, with the weekly temperature more than six degrees above normal. On the 6th, the maximum reached 39.4° after a warm overnight low of 22.1°. However, rain brought a maximum of only 21.5° on the 8th. In the rest of the month temperatures were near normal. Just one morning (the 24th) had an exceptionally low dew point that was 14° below normal.
There were eight rain days, with the highest reading 17.2 mm, on the 22nd.

Weather log November 2018

Comparing November months

Although the month began so hot, the average temperature (22.7°) was only 1° above normal, and not nearly as high as in November 2014 (25.4°) or November 2009 (26.0°).
Despite the continuing drought, the only indicator showing low moisture was the early morning dew point (7.3°). There was quite a lot of cloud (43%) and a rather narrow daily temperature range (14.4°).
The rainfall total of 50.2 mm (estimated) is at the 36th percentile for November, somewhat below the average (67 mm).
I have reported the drought in another post.

Climate in November months


Data. A Bureau of Meteorology automatic rain gauge operates in the museum yard. From 17 March 2017, 9 am daily readings are published as Manilla Museum, Station 55312.  These reports use that rainfall data when it is available.  The record was again defective in November 2018. No 9 am readings were recorded. I have substituted my non-standard gauge readings for all days.
All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to November 2018

Not So Moist

3-year trends to November 2018

November raw anomaly data (orange)

In November 2018, the top four graphs show that raw values of moisture anomalies moved up away from the moist values of October, but not as far as earlier drought values.
For temperature anomalies, daily maximum and subsoil rose again, while, daily minimum fell from its extremely high value

 Fully smoothed data (red)

At this time, Manilla was entering an extreme drought. Each of the smoothed climate anomalies shown on these graphs contributed to the drought to some degree, and with more or less lag.

By May 2018, the last date for which data can be fully smoothed (as described below), most variables had not yet peaked in their contribution. Several more months of data will reveal the complete cycle into and out of drought.
The anomaly of daily maximum temperature (x-axis, all graphs) had already peaked in March 2018. (In the 2002 drought daily maximum temperature had peaked after the peak of minimum rainfall, not before.)
In May 2018 the rainfall anomaly was still becoming more negative, to a record low value of minus 28.3 mm . June and July rainfall anomalies seemed likely to be similar after smoothing.
Cloudiness was decreasing towards a minimum (perhaps in August 2018) without becoming much less cloudy than normal.
Dew point anomaly was still decreasing, and seemed likely to reach a record low value about August.
The anomaly of daily temperature range had been at a (high) level characteristic of drought since the winter of 2017. It had changed little since, and seemed likely to peak in June 2018 without approaching the record value of July 2002.
The anomaly of daily minimum temperature has a cryptic relation to drought. In this case, the value peaked sharply in February 2018 before falling rapidly. It may have reached a minimum about August 2018.
The anomaly of subsoil temperature was rising rapidly in May 2018, and seemed likely to peak about July, lagging four months behind the daily maximum temperature anomaly.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to November 2017

Dry with cold nights

3-year trends to November 2017

November raw anomaly data (orange)

November 2017 reverted to the anomalies of August and September: low moisture (top four graphs) and cold nights (bottom left), with continuing cold subsoil (bottom right). Day temperature (x-axes)had cooled to normal since September.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Anomaly data for autumn 2017 (MAM) are now fully-smoothed, plotted in red. That season was near the centre for the last three years, but day temperatures fell from high towards normal (seen best on the top right graph). Meanwhile, moisture measures disagreed somewhat. Rainfall rose towards normal, cloudiness decreased towards normal, dew point fell through low values, and daily temperature range was static near normal.
Daily minimum temperature fell towards normal, and subsoil temperature rose to normal.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

November 2016 was arid

While there was some rain, measures of moisture this month were at or near their lowest November values for this century.

Photo of a yellow dragon lizard

Eastern Bearded Dragon

There were five rain days early in the month, the highest reading being 15.0 mm on the 10th. Some early days were overcast, but skies were sunny after the 15th.
Temperatures rose and fell, but few days or nights were especially hot or cold. The early morning of the 6th went as low as 5.4° , which is 7.8° below normal. Curiously, the month had a record number of cool nights: 12 nights were cooler than 10°, when there are usually only about 5.
Weekly average temperatures, which had been very low in October, were nearer to normal through this month.

Weather log November 2016

Comparing November months

Both the mean maximum temperature (30.2°) and the mean average temperature (20.9°) were near normal, but the mean minimum temperature (11.7°) was very low. On this record, only 1999 had colder November nights (at 11.6°!). This extreme value brought a very wide mean daily temperature range of 18.5°, also a record.
The subsoil was at its coolest recorded November value: 19.5°.
A very wide daily temperature range is one of the measures of moisture showing this month to be arid. The early morning dew point of 5.6° was the lowest November value on this record, and the cloudiness (30%) was low. The monthly rainfall total of 21.9 mm, while not really low (22nd percentile), was the lowest November total in the 26 years since 1990, which had only 15 mm.

Climate for November 2016


Data. Rainfall figures are usually from the automatic rain gauge at Manilla, published on the internet by the Bureau of Meteorology as Station 55031. However, the gauge ceased recording on the 8th of October, and later readings are from my non-standard gauge. All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to November 2016

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“November 2016 cold nights warm days”

3-year trends to November 2016

 

November raw anomaly data (orange)

In November 2016 the daily maximum temperature anomaly rose sharply to a high value. Moisture variables also moved high on the graphs: Temperature range became very high, rainfall low, dew point low, and cloud below normal. Daily minimum air temperature and subsoil temperature (bottom graphs) remained extremely low.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

The autumn months (MAM) of 2016 are now fully smoothed. Daily maximum temperature moved down into the normal range. All moisture values increased, but only the rainfall and daily temperature range were in the normal range of values: skies were more cloudy than normal, but the dew point was below normal.
Daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature rose slightly during the autumn season. However, while the subsoil temperature was normal, the daily minimum temperature anomaly reached a new record high for a smoothed value in May 2016: +1.34°, beating the value of +1.32° reached in December 2009. This variable may peak in June 2016.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

November 2015 had warm days and nights

Photo of seeding clematis

“Old Man’s Beard”

By the last week of October, the weather had cooled down to normal. In November, this continued until the 15th, with rain falling on eight of the days. The highest rainfall reading was 30.0 mm on the 5th.
After that, the weather was fine. Both days and nights were warm, but no day got to 40°. The weekly average temperature reached about four degrees above normal, as it had done early in October.

Weather log November 2015

 Comparing November months

This was a warm November, by day and by night. However, November 2014 had been hotter, and November 2009 very much hotter. The average daily maximum temperature in November 2009 (34.3°) was nearly 3° higher than in this month (31.5°).
Moisture indicators for this month were close to normal, although there was not much cloud. The dew point is no longer very low, as in the last three Novembers.
The rainfall of 73.8 mm was above average, in the 63rd percentile. The climate graph still includes the phenomenally high rainfall of November 2011: 242.9 mm, the highest November rainfall since the record began in 1883. (The next highest was 226 mm in November 1961.)
There are now no serious shortages in rainfall totals for ANY number of months. For the last 30 years, Manilla has enjoyed rainfalls close to normal. The 30-year total of 19,449 mm to this date is within 100 mm from the median 30-year total of 19,360 mm. In all that time, the most extreme major rainfall events were the 2002 winter-spring drought, and the 2011-2012 summer deluge.

Climate for November 2015


Data. All data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla. Rainfall data up to 26/3/15 is from Manilla Post Office, Station 055031.

3-year trends to November 2015

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“November 2015: warm days and nights”

Trends to November 2015

November raw anomaly data (orange)

While November daily maximum anomalies were not as warm as in October, daily minimum anomalies were warmer (on the lower left graph). Apart from these, nearly all other climatic anomalies for November were near normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

The latest fully smoothed data (May 2015) completes the autumn months (MAM) of 2015. In that season, no variables were changing much. Daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, subsoil temperature, and monthly rainfall were all near normal. Skies were rather cloudy, daily temperature range rather narrow and dew point (as is now usual) rather low. It seemed certain that the winter season would see a trend reversal: minimum values in the anomalies of daily maximum temperature and daily temperature range, and maximum values in the anomalies of daily minimum temperature, subsoil temperature, monthly rainfall, cloudiness, and dew point.

The three-year pattern

In these three years, a repeating annual cycle is best seen in the centre-right graph, which relates daily temperature range to daily maximum temperature. In May of each year the climate was relatively cool and equable (or maritime), while in October of each year it was relatively warm and extreme (or continental).


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.