Tag Archives: november

November 2019: one warm week

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by
Bushfire smoke

Manilla View 18-11-2019

One week, beginning on the 20th, was 5.4° warmer than normal. The night of the 22nd did not get cooler than 24.0°, making it the 5th warmest November night in this century. (One night in November 2009 had been 27.8°, the warmest night of any month.) In other weeks of this month, temperatures were normal.
Most days were dry and sunny. However, days early and late in the month were cloudy, with high dew points and narrow daily temperature ranges. Six of these days had rain, with the highest reading 16.4 mm on the 4th.
Smoke from coastal bushfires reduced visibility from the 17th to the 29th. On the 18th, visibility was only one kilometre, as shown in the photo.

November 2019 weather log

Comparing November months

Although this month was warm. other November months have been warmer: in 2002, 2009, 2012, and 2014. All of these had especially warm days. While days this month averaged 31.8°, days in November 2009 averaged 34.3°. The coolest recent November was in 2017.
This was a dry month but, by various measures, not as dry as in 2002, 2009, 2014 or 2016. The rainfall total of 40.2 mm is in the 27th percentile.

November climate

Drought

I will report separately on the on-going drought that continues to break low-rainfall records at durations of 15-months and longer.

Data. A Bureau of Meteorology automatic rain gauge operates in the museum yard. From 17 March 2017, 9 am daily readings are published as Manilla Museum, Station 55312.  These reports use that rainfall data when it is available. Recording resumed on 20 July 2019.
My estimates of early morning dew point have drifted anomalously low. From August 2019, I use data from the Tamworth Airport published graphs.
All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to November 2019

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

November just like October

3-year trends to November 2019

November raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes): now three degrees above normal.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): remains high.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): still near normal.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left): still very low.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): still normal.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): still rather low.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right): has risen back to high.

 Latest fully smoothed data (red) includes autumn 2019

Smoothed anomaly values are now available for the autumn (MAM) of 2019. Generally they show a steady retreat from the extreme (smoothed) anomaly values of January. Rainfall anomaly rose, while daily maximum temperature anomaly fell. Daily minimum temperature anomaly fell rapidly, and subsoil temperature anomaly rose rapidly. Cloudiness and dew point changed little. Temperature range anomaly, which had decreased slowly to January, began to increase again.

Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

Smoothing Continue reading →

November 2018 began hot

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by
A King Parrot feeding in a Hopbush

King Parrot in Hop Bush

The month began hot, with the weekly temperature more than six degrees above normal. On the 6th, the maximum reached 39.4° after a warm overnight low of 22.1°. However, rain brought a maximum of only 21.5° on the 8th. In the rest of the month temperatures were near normal. Just one morning (the 24th) had an exceptionally low dew point that was 14° below normal.
There were eight rain days, with the highest reading 17.2 mm, on the 22nd.

Weather log November 2018

Comparing November months

Although the month began so hot, the average temperature (22.7°) was only 1° above normal, and not nearly as high as in November 2014 (25.4°) or November 2009 (26.0°).
Despite the continuing drought, the only indicator showing low moisture was the early morning dew point (7.3°). There was quite a lot of cloud (43%) and a rather narrow daily temperature range (14.4°).
The rainfall total of 50.2 mm (estimated) is at the 36th percentile for November, somewhat below the average (67 mm).
I have reported the drought in another post.

Climate in November months

Data. A Bureau of Meteorology automatic rain gauge operates in the museum yard. From 17 March 2017, 9 am daily readings are published as Manilla Museum, Station 55312.  These reports use that rainfall data when it is available.  The record was again defective in November 2018. No 9 am readings were recorded. I have substituted my non-standard gauge readings for all days.
All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to November 2018

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Not So Moist

3-year trends to November 2018

November raw anomaly data (orange)

In November 2018, the top four graphs show that raw values of moisture anomalies moved up away from the moist values of October, but not as far as earlier drought values.
For temperature anomalies, daily maximum and subsoil rose again, while, daily minimum fell from its extremely high value

 Fully smoothed data (red)

At this time, Manilla was entering an extreme drought. Each of the smoothed climate anomalies shown on these graphs contributed to the drought to some degree, and with more or less lag.

By May 2018, the last date for which data can be fully smoothed (as described below), most variables had not yet peaked in their contribution. Several more months of data will reveal the complete cycle into and out of drought.
The anomaly of daily maximum temperature (x-axis, all graphs) had already peaked in March 2018. (In the 2002 drought daily maximum temperature had peaked after the peak of minimum rainfall, not before.)
In May 2018 the rainfall anomaly was still becoming more negative, to a record low value of minus 28.3 mm . June and July rainfall anomalies seemed likely to be similar after smoothing.
Cloudiness was decreasing towards a minimum (perhaps in August 2018) without becoming much less cloudy than normal.
Dew point anomaly was still decreasing, and seemed likely to reach a record low value about August.
The anomaly of daily temperature range had been at a (high) level characteristic of drought since the winter of 2017. It had changed little since, and seemed likely to peak in June 2018 without approaching the record value of July 2002.
The anomaly of daily minimum temperature has a cryptic relation to drought. In this case, the value peaked sharply in February 2018 before falling rapidly. It may have reached a minimum about August 2018.
The anomaly of subsoil temperature was rising rapidly in May 2018, and seemed likely to peak about July, lagging four months behind the daily maximum temperature anomaly.

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to November 2017

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Dry with cold nights

3-year trends to November 2017

November raw anomaly data (orange)

November 2017 reverted to the anomalies of August and September: low moisture (top four graphs) and cold nights (bottom left), with continuing cold subsoil (bottom right). Day temperature (x-axes)had cooled to normal since September.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Anomaly data for autumn 2017 (MAM) are now fully-smoothed, plotted in red. That season was near the centre for the last three years, but day temperatures fell from high towards normal (seen best on the top right graph). Meanwhile, moisture measures disagreed somewhat. Rainfall rose towards normal, cloudiness decreased towards normal, dew point fell through low values, and daily temperature range was static near normal.
Daily minimum temperature fell towards normal, and subsoil temperature rose to normal.

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.