Warm Wet May 2017

Photo of blossoms on a gum tree

Mugga Ironbark Blossoms

The weather was normal for the first half of the month, bringing a mild first frost on the 11th, close to the normal date for it. Then the weather became warmer and wetter. Rain totalling 32.8 mm was recorded on the 20th, while the minimum temperature of 14.0° that morning was 8.6° above normal. The weekly average temperature rose to 3.8° above normal, before falling below normal as the rain eased towards the end of the month. The last two mornings were frosty.
In all, there were five rain days (over 0.2 mm) when there are usually three.

Weather log for May 2017

Comparing May months

Like May last year, this month was about one degree warmer than normal, unlike May of 2007, which was half a degree warmer again. The dew point (4.7°) was a little low, the daily temperature range (15.3°) normal, the cloudiness (32%) and the rainfall rather high.
The total rainfall of 55.6 mm was at the 70th percentile, well above the May average of 41 mm. There are no shortages of rainfall for groups of months to this date.

Climate for May 2017


Data. A Bureau of Meteorology automatic rain gauge operates in the museum yard. From 17 March 2017, 9 am daily readings are published as Manilla Museum, Station 55312.  These reports use that rainfall data when it is available. All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

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3-year trends to September 2016

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“September 2016 extreme cold and rain”

Trends to September 2016

September raw anomaly data (orange)

September 2016 was extremely wet and had extremely cold days. Axes on the graph had to be extended to anomaly values of minus 80 mm for rainfall and minus four degrees for daily maximum temperature. In sympathy, cloudiness and dew point were extremely high and daily temperature range was extremely low.
On the first graph, partially-smoothed rainfall and temperature values had moved consistently in the same direction since March.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

The latest fully-smoothed data point is March 2016.
Rainfall, temperature range anomaly and daily maximum temperature had been static for three months. The latter had been rather high, the others normal. Cloudiness, dew point and temperature range had begun to move down the graph, while daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature had begun to move up.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

Wet August 2016 had two cold days

Photo of knife-leaf wattle blooms

Knife-leaf Wattle

Six days with at least eight millimetres of rain made for a very wet August.
On the average, the temperature was normal until the fourth week, which was cool. However, there were two remarkably cold days. The 3rd, at 10.6°, was the second coldest August day and the 22nd, at 11.6°, the fifth coldest. Most nights were cool, around 1°, but several were much warmer, generally with the rain. Most days were sunny, and eighteen of the mornings were frosty, about three more than usual.

Weather log for August 2016

Comparing August months

On average, the days were cold: as cold as in August 2001, but not as cold as in 2008 or 2010. The average night-time temperature, however, was normal. The dew point, while not high, was higher than in the previous four August months.
The monthly rainfall total of 80.2 mm was twice the average (40 mm), and in the 89th percentile. No rainfall total for any number of months is now below the 19th percentile. That is the 42-month total of 1949 mm, which is a mere 313 mm lower than the median 42-month value. Both Greenhatch Creek and Rushes Creek have flowed in recent weeks.

Climate for August 2016


Data. Rainfall figures for this month are from the automatic rain gauge at Manilla, published on the internet by the Bureau of Meteorology as Station 55031. All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to August 2016

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“August 2016 cool and wet”

Trends to August 2016

August raw anomaly data (orange)

August 2016 was marked by low mean daily maximum temperature and high total rainfall. On the first graph the data point is in the cold wet “flooding rains” corner. However, the other five variables are close to normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Fully-smoothed data is now available for the summer of 2015-16. Most variables became static in that season, but cloudiness increased, dew point fell, and subsoil temperature rose.
Most variables were close to normal: rainfall, cloudiness, daily temperature range and subsoil temperature. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures were rather high, while dew point was low. [Low dew point anomalies near the line (y = -x – 3) rather than (y = -x) may be due to an instrument error, since corrected.]


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to March 2013

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Now cool and wet”Trends to March 2013.

While raw values of temperature anomalies were not as low as in February, March was further towards cool, moist conditions than December or January, or any months since July.

Fully-smoothed data points (red) for September 2012 continued to move towards drought. The dew point anomaly reached a seventh successive new record low: -3.37 degrees.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Very Wet July 2012

The daily weather logWeather log July 2012.

As in June, most weather features in July were normal, except for very warm nights with the heavy rain in the second week. Sixteen mornings were frosty, one down to minus three degrees. There were several early fogs in the valley.
Of seven rain readings, most were heavy. But the 29.6 mm value included three days.

 Comparing July monthsClimate July 2012.

Other than rainfall, there is only one variable that is not on the July average: the subsoil temperature at 750 mm is again extraordinarily warm, at 16.9°, 3.2° above normal.
The rainfall total of 91.4 mm is in the 94th percentile. Only eight July months have ever been wetter. However, July 1984, at 171 mm, was nearly twice as wet. The 12-month total to the end of July (1020 mm) is extreme. In the last 50 years, only three 12-month totals have been higher: September and October 1998 and February 1984.


Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

 

April 2012 cloudy and wet

The daily weather logWeather log April 2012.

Most days had normal temperatures, but several were cool and overcast. Cold nights came during sunny spells, the coldest, on the 11th, being nine degrees below normal, but not a frost. Rain totalling 58.2 mm fell on seven rain days, mainly late in the month, with a maximum reading of 14.2 mm on the 24th.

 Comparing April monthsClimate April 2012.

All the mean temperatures were near normal, except that subsoil temperature was the highest for April on this record: 2.1 degrees above normal.

There were more cloudy days than recorded in earlier Aprils.
The rainfall total of 58.2 mm is well above the April average of 39.3 mm: it is in the 80th percentile. The total for March and April taken together (73.6 mm) is exactly on the average. As in March, totals for periods from five months to twenty-four months are still near record high values, and no totals up to the thirty-year total are below normal.


Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.