3-year trends to January 2020

January much more humid

3-year climate trends to Jan 2020

January raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes) high, but not now extreme: now only three degrees above 21st century normal.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): extremely high, twice as high as the record smoothed value
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): still near normal.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left): no longer extremely low.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): back to normal.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): suddenly rather high (humid).
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right): suddenly narrow, due to cloud.

 Fully smoothed data values (red) 

Smoothed anomaly values now include July of 2019. From the rather static values of the autumn, nearly all smoothed values for June began to move in the direction towards drought that seems to have persisted through spring.
There were two exceptions. Daily minimum temperature anomaly continued to fall. Subsoil temperature anomaly reached a peak value in June.


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

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3-year trends to December 2019

December dry and very hot

3-year trends of climate anomalies

December raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes) extremely high: now five degrees above 21st century normal and three degrees above the record for smoothed values.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): very high, just above the record smoothed value.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): still near normal.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left): extremely low.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): extremely low.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): still rather low.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right): very high.

 Fully smoothed data values (red) 

Smoothed anomaly values now include June of 2019. From the rather static values of the spring, nearly all smoothed values for June began to move in the direction towards drought that seems to have prevailed since then.
There were two exceptions. Daily minimum temperature anomaly continued to fall very rapidly. Subsoil temperature anomaly approached a peak value.

Detail of rainfall vs. max temp

Rainfall and temperature anomaly trendsThe relation of smoothed rainfall anomaly to smoothed daily maximum temperature anomaly (top left graph) is important, but the graph is hard to read. I have drawn a part at a larger scale here.
The value for September 2017 is the first to show the current drought by falling on the hot-dry side of the normal range (aqua). Values became successively warmer and drier until March 2018 (max temp) and May 2018 (min rain). Values (especially temperature) then cycled away from drought until August-September 2018, and back to record-breaking drought in January 2019.
After January 2019, there was a retreat from drought until May 2019, when anomaly values were like those of 17 months earlier, in January 2018 (red square).
June 2019 began a renewed cycle towards drought, seemingly confirmed by later data.


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

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3-year trends to November 2019

November just like October

3-year trends to November 2019

November raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes): now three degrees above normal.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): remains high.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): still near normal.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left): still very low.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): still normal.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): still rather low.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right): has risen back to high.

 Latest fully smoothed data (red) includes autumn 2019

Smoothed anomaly values are now available for the autumn (MAM) of 2019. Generally they show a steady retreat from the extreme (smoothed) anomaly values of January. Rainfall anomaly rose, while daily maximum temperature anomaly fell. Daily minimum temperature anomaly fell rapidly, and subsoil temperature anomaly rose rapidly. Cloudiness and dew point changed little. Temperature range anomaly, which had decreased slowly to January, began to increase again.


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

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3-year trends to October 2019

October hot days and nights

3-year trends to October 2019

October raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes): one degree above the maximum for smoothed values.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): has jumped from very low to very high.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): back to normal again.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left): extremely low.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): normal.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): now not very low.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right): has fallen from extremely high to near normal.

 Latest fully smoothed data (red), for April 2019

The latest smoothed anomaly values (April 2019) all show a further retreat from the extreme drought values of the summer of 2018-19.

Rainfall and temperature trajectory Sep2016 toFeb 2019The situation is little different from two months ago, as I discussed with an enlarged graph of temperature and rainfall anomalies in the post “Hot and dry records in January 2019”.


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

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3-year trends to September 2019

September extreme and arid

3-year climate trends to September 2019

September raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes): near the maximum for smoothed values.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): has rapidly fallen very low.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): near normal again.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left): extremely low.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): normal.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): now very low (arid).
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right): extremely high.

 Latest fully smoothed data (red), for March 2019

Latest smoothed anomaly values (March 2019) all show a retreat from the extreme drought values of the summer of 2018-19.


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

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3-year trends to August 2019

Summer record hot-dry (as smoothed)

3-year climate trends to August 2019

August raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes): near the maximum for smoothed values.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): near normal.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): very high.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left): very low.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): normal.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): low, like the other recent values.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right): very high.

 Latest fully smoothed data (red), summer 2018-19

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly peaked at a record +1.79° in January.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly held the record vaue of +2.16° through January and February.
Subsoil rose rapidly from normal.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall smoothed anomaly peaked negative in January at the record value of minus 31.75 mm per month.
Cloudiness was normal.
Dew point was low.
Daily temperature range was normal.


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

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3-year trends to July 2019

Record dry and warm (as smoothed)

3-year climate trends to July 2019

July raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes): above the maximum for smoothed values.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): just above the upper limit of normal values.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): very high.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left): very low.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): normal.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): low, like the other recent values.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right): very high.

 Latest fully smoothed data (red), January 2019

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature was a new record positive value of +1.79 deg, beating +1.62 deg set in March and December 2018.
Daily minimum temperature set a new record of +2.18 deg, beating +1.98 deg set the previous month.
Subsoil was normal due to phase lag.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall smoothed anomaly was a new 136-year record value of minus 31.75 mm per month, breaking the record of minus 30.8 mm set the previous month.
Cloudiness was normal.
Dew point was low.
Daily temperature range was normal.


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

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