3-year trends to May 2017

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Record cold subsoil November 2016”3-year climate trends to May 2017

May raw anomaly data (orange)

While not far from normal, May 2017 was warm and humid (“Interglacial”), in contrast to April, which had been cool and arid (“Glacial”).The daily temperature range remained normal as both maximum and minimum temperature anomalies rose. Subsoil temperature rose above normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

The most recent fully-smoothed data point, for November 2016, completes data for the spring season. Following a winter that had been cool and moist, spring showed rapid warming and drying. The November dew point seems to have reached a minimum: one not nearly as low (arid) as in the previous two years.
The smoothed anomaly of daily minimum temperature, which had hit a record high value in May 2016, approached a minimum value that was near normal in October, and began to rise again.
Smoothed subsoil temperature anomaly reached a new record low value of -1.16° in November. It beat a record that was set in March 2008, a few months after the global temperature minimum of October 2007.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to April 2017

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Cold-Arid ‘Glacial'”

Climate trends to April 2017

April raw anomaly data (orange)

In terms of anomalies, April 2017 was even cooler than March, but much more arid. Anomalies of both daily maximum and daily minimum temperature fell by more than three degrees from February values, (They plot near the margins of the lower left graph.)
On most of the graphs, raw anomaly values for April plot towards the top left corner. Rather than moving along the top-right-to-bottom-left axis of “Droughts and flooding rains”, they combine low temperature and aridity as happened in ice ages.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

The most recent fully-smoothed data is for October 2016. Following a winter that was cool and moist, October shows a climate becoming steadily warmer and drier.
The smoothed anomaly of daily minimum temperature, which had hit a record high value in May 2016, approached a minimum value that was near normal.
Subsoil temperature anomaly was still falling rapidly, and was certain to reach a new record low smoothed value in November.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to March 2017

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Very rainy and cloudy”

3-year trends to March 2017

March raw anomaly data (orange)

March 2017 was dramatically cooler and more moist than the extremely hot and dry February. March days were cooler than normal and both rainfall and cloud were very high. Dew point and daily temperature range moved to the moist side of normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

The most recent fully-smoothed data is for September 2016. Following a winter that was cool and moist, September days remained cool but the climate became drier.
The smoothed anomaly of daily minimum temperature, which had hit a record high value in May 2016, approached normal. Subsoil temperature fell rapidly to below normal.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to February 2017

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Extreme heat with little rain”

3-year trends to February 2017.

February raw anomaly data (orange)

In February 2017 days became extremely hot and rainfall very low. The subsoil temperature rose from low to normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Fully-smoothed values are now available for the winter months (June, July, and August) of 2016. That winter, as daily maximum temperature fell through normal values, a maximum in moisture was shown by maxima in rainfall, cloudiness, and dew point, and a minimum in daily temperature range. None of the smoothed values was extreme; in fact, the dew point remained on the dry side of normal.
Not only daily maximum temperature anomaly fell during the summer. Both the daily minimum temperature anomaly and the subsoil temperature anomaly also fell. The smoothed daily minimum temperature anomaly had just reached a record high value in May, and was still above normal as the summer ended.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to January 2017

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“January 2017 very hot”

3-year trends to January 2017

January raw anomaly data (orange)

In January 2017 both days and nights became even hotter. While rainfall was low, dew point was high.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

At the time of the latest fully-smoothed anomalies, in July 2016, most variables were still moving towards towards cool and moist.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to December 2016

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“December 2016 hot with cold subsoil”

3-year trends to December 2016

December raw anomaly data (orange)

In December 2016 both days and nights became hot, but the subsoil remained cold. Other variables were near normal. During the last six months all partially-smoothed anomaly values moved around the edges of the graphs.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

At the time of the latest fully-smoothed anomalies, in June 2016, most variables were moving rapidly towards cool and moist.
Daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature, however, fell slightly from a peak in May. The subsoil temperature was normal, but the daily minimum temperature anomaly had reached a new record high for a smoothed value in May 2016: +1.34 degrees.

Subsoil temperature

The observed changes in subsoil temperature are a mystery. Generally, they are like those of daily maximum temperature, but with leads or lags as shown by curved arrows on the bottom right graph. They relate well to daily minimum temperature, as shown by the similar patterns on the bottom two graphs. This month, however, the raw anomaly of subsoil temperature is very low, while those of maximum and minimum air temperature are very high.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to November 2016

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“November 2016 cold nights warm days”

3-year trends to November 2016

 

November raw anomaly data (orange)

In November 2016 the daily maximum temperature anomaly rose sharply to a high value. Moisture variables also moved high on the graphs: Temperature range became very high, rainfall low, dew point low, and cloud below normal. Daily minimum air temperature and subsoil temperature (bottom graphs) remained extremely low.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

The autumn months (MAM) of 2016 are now fully smoothed. Daily maximum temperature moved down into the normal range. All moisture values increased, but only the rainfall and daily temperature range were in the normal range of values: skies were more cloudy than normal, but the dew point was below normal.
Daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature rose slightly during the autumn season. However, while the subsoil temperature was normal, the daily minimum temperature anomaly reached a new record high for a smoothed value in May 2016: +1.34°, beating the value of +1.32° reached in December 2009. This variable may peak in June 2016.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.