3-year trends to June 2020

June: again warm and dry

3-year climate trends at Manilla

June raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes), having been negative for three months, returned to positive.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): returned from normal to positive.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): returned from normal to positive.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left) returned from normal to negative (dry).
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): returned from high (cloudy) to near normal.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): remained normal.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right) returned from narrow to near normal.

 Fully smoothed data values (red) 

Fully-smoothed data for December 2019 shows that only the daily minimum temperature was increasing. Other temperatures became cooler, and all the moisture indicators (rainfall, cloud, dew point, and daily temperature range) moved downward, showing decreasing drought.

[Note.
Due to illness, 45 days were missed for some Manilla values, mainly in April 2020. No values were noted for cloud or soil temperature; daily maximum and minimum air temperatures were estimated by regression on values from Tamworth Airport Automatic Weather Service.]


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

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3-year trends to May 2020

May, like March and April, continued cool

May raw anomaly data (orange)

Current raw anomaly values for May appeared very little changed from those of March and April. However, as noted below, many values are estimates only.

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes), which had been very high until January, remained near -1.5°.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): stayed at normal.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): stayed at normal.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left) stayed near normal.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): remained high.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): remained normal.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right) stayed low, near -1.5°.

 Fully smoothed data values (red) 

Fully-smoothed data is now available for the spring season (SON) of 2019. Taking the season as a whole, smoothed daily maximum temperature anomaly peaked (at the 21st-century record value of +2.21°) in October, while daily minimum temperature rose, and subsoil temperature fell. A steady movement away from extreme drought affected rainfall, cloudiness, dew point, and daily temperature range (lower).

[Note.
Due to illness, 45 days were missed for some Manilla values, from 23/3/20 to 8/5/20. No values were noted for cloud or soil temperature; daily maximum and minimum air temperatures were estimated by regression on values from Tamworth Airport Automatic Weather Service.]


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

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3-year trends to April 2020

April, like March, continued cool

April raw anomaly data (orange)

Current raw anomaly values for April appeared very little changed from those of March. However, as noted below, many values are estimates only.

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes), which had been very high until January, remained near -1.5°.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): stayed just below normal.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): stayed near normal.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left) stayed near normal.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): fell from very high to high.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): remained normal.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right) stayed near -1.5°.

 Fully smoothed data values (red) 

The fully-smoothed daily maximum temperature anomaly for October 2019 again broke the 21st century record, reaching a value of 2.21° above normal. The daily minimum anomaly also rose, but the subsoil anomaly fell. Despite the high and increasing air temperatures, smoothed moisture anomalies for October 2019 did not move further towards drought.

[Note.
Due to illness, 45 days were missed for some Manilla values for the whole of April 2020. No values were noted for cloud or soil temperature; daily maximum and minimum air temperatures were estimated by regression on values from Tamworth Airport Automatic Weather Service.]


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

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3-year trends to March 2020

March continued cool

March raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes), which had been very high until January, remained below -1.5°.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): fell to just below normal.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): was still near normal.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left) fell from plus 100 mm/month to normal.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): remained high.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): returned to normal.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right) returned from -3.0° to -1.5°.

 Fully smoothed data values (red) 

Most smoothed anomaly values for September 2019 moved a little further towards drought. Smoothed daily maximum temperature anomaly reached a new 21st century record of +2.07° above normal in September, with a higher record to be expected in October or later.

[Note.
Due to illness, 45 days were missed for some Manilla values, beginning from 23/3/20. No values were noted for cloud or soil temperature; daily maximum and minimum air temperatures were estimated by regression on values from Tamworth Airport Automatic Weather Service.]


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

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3-year trends to February 2020

February suddenly cool and wet

3-year climate trends to Feb 2020

February raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes) suddenly fell by 5° to -2°.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): fell from extremely high to normal.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): still near normal.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left) suddenly rose by 130 mm/month to plus 100 mm/month.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): rose from normal to +32%.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): remained rather high (humid).
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right) reached -3°.

 Fully smoothed data values (red) 

Smoothed anomaly values now include the winter season (JJA) of 2019. From the rather static values of the autumn, nearly all smoothed values for winter moved steadily in the direction towards drought that seems to have prevailed through spring.
There were two exceptions. Daily minimum temperature anomaly steadily fell. Subsoil temperature anomaly fell from a peak value in June.

The August 2019 daily maximum temperature anomaly of +1.83° just exceeded the previous record value.


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

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