July 2019 had the warmest days

Ruby Saltbush Enchylaena tomentosa

Drought-proof Ruby Saltbush

Only the middle week of July was not warmer than normal. Nearly all days and nights were above average for this coldest time of the year, but none was exceptional. No night minimum was as warm as ten degrees. There were 15 frosts (normally 17), but, as happened in July 2009 and 2010, there were no severe frosts reading below minus two degrees in the screen.
Rain was recorded on the 8th and 9th, estimated as 5.0 mm and 5.5 mm.

Weather log July 2019

Comparing July months

The last three July months saw maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures steadily rising, with the temperature range (17 deg) staying high. That was not true earlier in the decade: from 2008 to 2012 temperatures were steady and the daily temperature range (14 deg) was low, with cool days and warm nights. It was the case again in July 2015 and 2016, as shown here.
Indicators of moisture were again low, but not as low as in July 2018, with its record low dewpoint and cloudiness. The (estimated) rainfall total of 10.5 mm is at the 14th percentile for July.

Climate at July 2019

Drought

I have reported separately on the on-going drought that continues to break low-rainfall records at durations of 15-months and longer.


Data. A Bureau of Meteorology automatic rain gauge operates in the museum yard. From 17 March 2017, 9 am daily readings are published as Manilla Museum, Station 55312.  These reports use that rainfall data when it is available.  Since no 9 am readings have been recorded since August 2018, I have substituted my non-standard gauge readings for all days.
All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to July 2019

Record dry and warm (as smoothed)

3-year climate trends to July 2019

July raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes): above the maximum for smoothed values.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): just above the upper limit of normal values.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): very high.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left): very low.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): normal.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): low, like the other recent values.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right): very high.

 Latest fully smoothed data (red), January 2019

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature was a new record positive value of +1.79 deg, beating +1.62 deg set in March and December 2018.
Daily minimum temperature set a new record of +2.18 deg, beating +1.98 deg set the previous month.
Subsoil was normal due to phase lag.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall smoothed anomaly was a new 136-year record value of minus 31.75 mm per month, breaking the record of minus 30.8 mm set the previous month.
Cloudiness was normal.
Dew point was low.
Daily temperature range was normal.


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

Smoothing Continue reading

Drought worse in July.

At Manilla, most rainfall totals just got lower.
Rainfall status June and July 2019

Graph of Rainfall Shortages

This graph shows all the present rainfall shortages at Manilla, short term and long term, as percentile values. The latest values, as at the end of July, are shown by a thick black line with large circles. Those from one month earlier are shown by a thinner line with small diamonds. [The method is described in “Further Explanation” below.]

Results for July

Rainfall totals for months to July 2019 are the lowest ever registered here for six of the twenty-five chosen rainfall durations: 15-, 18-, 24-, 30-, 72- and 84-months.
Only three of the chosen durations do not have serious rainfall shortages below the 10th percentile: 1-month, 3-months and 360-months. Even those three values are far below normal, at the 12th, 14th, and 14th percentiles.

Weatherzone forum closed

I posted a provisional version of this graph to catch the final deadline for posting to the weatherzone forum. My first post was nearly 16 years ago.
That forum is now closed to postings and will close completely in November. It closed due to lack of public interest in climate and weather in Australia.


Further Explanation

The following notes explain aspects of this work under these listed headings:

Data analysis

Cumulative rainfall totals
Percentile values
Severity of rainfall shortages

Limitations of this analysis

Monthly rainfalls form a single population
Observations are not retrospective
The rain gauge failed

Data analysis

Continue reading

June 2019 still warm and dry

Road in Manilla

The Bendemeer road

The second week was 3.2° warmer than normal, the third week cool, and the fourth warm again. There were 12 frosts (normally 13), with that on the 22nd reading minus 4.3° in the screen. It was one of only 20 readings below minus 4.0° this century.
The wettest of the four rain days registered only 2.3 mm.

Weather log June 2019

Comparing June months

The mean temperature for June has changed little in recent years. It has slowly fallen from 11.5° in 2013 to 10.8°. That is higher by 0.5° than the 10.3° that was normal in the first decade of this century. This month’s mean daily maximum (18.3°) and mean daily minimum (3.3°) were also just 0.5° above normal.
This June was a little more moist than last June in its higher dew point and narrower daily temperature range but less moist in cloudiness and rainfall. The low total rainfall of 4.8 mm (est.) is at the 8th percentile, the 12th driest June on record.
Climate for June 2019

Drought

The on-going unprecedented drought is reported in another post.


Data. A Bureau of Meteorology automatic rain gauge operates in the museum yard. From 17 March 2017, 9 am daily readings are published as Manilla Museum, Station 55312.  These reports use that rainfall data when it is available.  Since no 9 am readings have been recorded since August 2018, I have substituted my non-standard gauge readings for all days.
All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to June 2019

June warm and dry

3-yeqr climate trends to June 2019

June raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes): near the upper limit of normal values.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): near the upper limit of normal values.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): very high.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left): very low.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): normal.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): low, like the other recent values.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right): normal.

 Latest fully smoothed data (red), December 2018

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature equaled the record positive value of +1.62° set in March 2018.
Daily minimum temperature set a new record of +1.98°, beating +1.65° set the previous month.
Subsoil was normal due to phase lag.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall smoothed anomaly was a new 136-year record value of -30.8 mm per month, breaking the record of -29.7 mm set the previous month.
Cloudiness was normal.
Dew point was low.
Daily temperature range was normal.


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

Smoothing

Smoothing uses Gaussian functions.
For fully smoothed data the function has a Standard Deviation of 2.5 months, it spans 13 monthly data points, and has a half-width of 6 months, which suppresses cycles shorter than 12 months. For partly smoothed data, the span of the function is reduced to 11 months, 9 months and so on.
Continue reading

June breaks more drought records

Rainfall status May-June 2019

Graph of Rainfall Shortages

This graph shows all the present rainfall shortages at Manilla, short term and long term, as percentile values. The latest values, as at the end of June, are shown by a thick black line with large circles. Those from one month earlier are shown by a thinner line with small diamonds. [The method is described in “Further Explanation” below.]

Changes from May to June

The June rainfall of only 4.8 mm took Manilla’s rainfall status curve back to where it was in April.
Five records for low rainfall totals have been broken yet again: the totals for 15-, 18-, 24-, 30-and 72-months. The 84-month total at June (3660 mm) is also extremely low, but ranks second-driest to April 2019.
The record for a 15-month dry spell, which had stood at 404 mm since 1912, has been broken four times in this drought, and now stands at 367 mm. That is down by 37 mm, or nearly 10% below the 1912 figure. The 24-month record had stood at 766 mm since 1966 when it was broken this April, May, and June. It now stands 73 mm lower, at 693 mm.


Further Explanation

The following notes explain aspects of this work under these listed headings:

Data analysis

Cumulative rainfall totals
Percentile values
Severity of rainfall shortages

Limitations of this analysis

Monthly rainfalls form a single population
Observations are not retrospective
The rain gauge failed

Data analysis

Continue reading

May 2019 had the warmest nights

Keepit Dam boom, May 2019

The month began warm, with the night of the 2nd being, at 18.0°, the warmest May night of the new century. There was a second warm spell nearly four degrees above normal about the 20th.
The first frost (by my reading) came on the 12th of May this year, and on the 15th of May last year. The middle date of first frost is May 13th.
There were three rain days (usually four) but nearly all the rain (61 mm) was recorded on the 4th.

Weather log May 2019

Comparing May months

The mean temperature this month (14.6°) was high, but not as high as in May 2007 (15.1°). However, the mean daily minimum temperature (8.1°) was the warmest for May in the new century: above normal by 2.3°.
A rather narrow daily temperature range (13.1°) and high percentage of cloudy days (45%) showed moisture above normal.
The (estimated) rainfall total of 61.8 mm was very high, in the 75th percentile. Because no rain at all had fallen in April, the total for the two months together reached only to the 26th percentile.

Climate for May 2019

Drought

The on-going unprecedented drought is reported in another post.


Data. A Bureau of Meteorology automatic rain gauge operates in the museum yard. From 17 March 2017, 9 am daily readings are published as Manilla Museum, Station 55312.  These reports use that rainfall data when it is available.  Since no 9 am readings have been recorded since August 2018, I have substituted my non-standard gauge readings for all days.
All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.