3-year trends to March 2019

March warm

3-year trends to March 2019

March raw anomaly data (orange)

In March 2019, the raw anomaly for daily maximum temperature was near the upper limit for normal. Daily minimum and subsoil temperatures were high. Rainfall and other moisture measures were near normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Fully smoothed data to September 2018 (except daily minimum temperature anomaly) showed a movement away from drought. More recent data, only partially smoothed, suggest that temperatures and rainfall later returned towards drought.


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

Smoothing

Smoothing uses Gaussian functions.
For fully smoothed data the function has a Standard Deviation of 2.5 months, it spans 13 monthly data points, and has a half-width of 6 months, which suppresses cycles shorter than 12 months. For partly smoothed data, the span of the function is reduced to 11 months, 9 months and so on.
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3-year trends to February 2019

February arid

3-year trends to February 2019

February raw anomaly data (orange)

By February 2019, temperatures had returned from very high to normal. Rainfall remained very low, and dew point also became very low.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Fully smoothed data to August 2018 showed that several trends for the spring were typical of drought:

Maximum temperature anomaly was steadily falling from the record high in March.
Minimum temperature anomaly was a little high and steady.
Subsoil temperature anomaly was falling towards normal from a low peak in June.
Rainfall anomaly was near the record low (smoothed) and steady.
Cloudiness anomaly was near zero.
Dew point anomaly was near the record low (smoothed) and steady.
Temperature range anomaly peaked rather high in July, then fell.

More recent data, only partially smoothed, suggest that temperatures and rainfall have since returned towards drought.


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

Smoothing

Smoothing uses Gaussian functions.
For fully smoothed data the function has a Standard Deviation of 2.5 months, it spans 13 monthly data points, and has a half-width of 6 months, which suppresses cycles shorter than 12 months. For partly smoothed data, the span of the function is reduced to 11 months, 9 months and so on.

Fully smoothed data points are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange.

Limiting values

Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to January 2019

January very hot

3-year trends to January 2019

January raw anomaly data (orange)

In January 2019, the daily maximum temperature (x-axes, all graphs) and daily minimum temperature (lower left graph) were extremely high, while the subsoil had warmed to normal. Rainfall was very low, while cloudiness, dew point and daily temperature range were near normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

By July 2018, the last date for which data can be fully smoothed (as described below), variables had already peaked, or were about to peak, in their contribution to an extreme drought.

More recent data, only partially smoothed, suggests that temperatures and rainfall have since returned towards drought.


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

Smoothing

Smoothing uses Gaussian functions.
For fully smoothed data the function has a Standard Deviation of 2.5 months, it spans 13 monthly data points, and has a half-width of 6 months, which suppresses cycles shorter than 12 months. For partly smoothed data, the span of the function is reduced to 11 months, 9 months and so on.

Fully smoothed data points are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange.

Limiting values

Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

2018 hottest and driest

In the nineteen years 2000 to 2018, this last year was the hottest and the driest.

Climate logs 19 years

Climate records kept at 3 Monash Street, Manilla from April 1999 yield these eight graphs of climate variables. The graphs on the left (red) show heat and those on the right (blue) show moisture.
These graphs show the figures for calendar years. They do not show hot summers or cold winters. In particular, each summer spans two calendar years.
In general, the temperatures in this 19-year record rose, with a pause between 2004 and 2012. Moisture peaked about 2010.

Day Temperatures

Daily max temp, 19 years

Day temperatures are shown by the mean maximum temperature in the thermometer screen. The year 2018, at 27.13°, had the hottest days by far. Four other years with hot days were widely spread: 2002, 2009, 2014, and 2017. The coldest days were in 2008 (24.57°) and 2010 (24.60°), followed by 2001 and 2011.

Average Temperatures

Daily Mean Temp, 19 years.

This graph shows warmth in general, as is done in the study of global warming. For each day, the daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures are averaged. Then these values are averaged for each year. The year 2018 was the warmest (19.11°), but 2017 was only fourth, beaten by 2014 and 2009. The coolest year in this century was 2008 (17.19°), followed by 2001, 2011, and 2012.

Night temperatures

Daily min temp, 19 years

Night temperatures are shown by the mean minimum temperature in the thermometer screen. The year 2018 , at 11.09°, had only the fourth warmest nights. The warmest were in 2014, at 11.34°, followed by 2010 and 2009. Years with nights cooler than 10° on average were 2012, 2008, 2006 and 2001.

Subsoil temperatures

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3-year trends to December 2018

December hot and dry

3-year trends to December 2018

December raw anomaly data (orange)

In December 2018, the top two graphs show that rainfall was low and skies sunny.
The daily maximum temperature (x-axes, all graphs) and daily minimum temperature (lower left graph) were extremely high, but the subsoil was cool. Dew point and daily temperature range were near normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Climate anomaly data when smoothed in this way do not show changes from month to month, but only those cycles that last for a year or more. The smoothed data identify the month when a peak occurs in a cycle .

By June 2018, the last date for which data can be fully smoothed (as described below), some variables had already peaked in their contribution to the current extreme drought.

The anomaly of daily maximum temperature (x-axis, all graphs) had peaked in March 2018. Two months later, in May 2018, the rainfall anomaly peaked (negative) to a 21st-century record low value of minus 28.3 mm. (In the 2002 drought daily maximum temperature had not peaked until after the peak of minimum rainfall.)
By June, cloudiness was decreasing towards a minimum (perhaps in August 2018) without becoming much less cloudy than normal. Dew point anomaly was still decreasing, and seemed likely to reach a record low value about August.
The anomaly of daily temperature range had been at a (high) level characteristic of drought since the previous winter (2017). It had changed little, and peaked in May 2018 without getting near the record high value of July 2002.
The anomaly of daily minimum temperature has a cryptic relation to drought. In this case, the value peaked sharply in February 2018 before falling rapidly. It may have reached a minimum about August 2018.
The anomaly of subsoil temperature was high in June 2018, and seemed likely to peak about July, lagging four months behind the daily maximum temperature anomaly.


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

Smoothing

Smoothing uses Gaussian functions.
For fully smoothed data the function has a Standard Deviation of 2.5 months, it spans 13 monthly data points, and has a half-width of 6 months, which suppresses cycles shorter than 12 months. For partly smoothed data, the span of the function is reduced to 11 months, 9 months and so on.

Fully smoothed data points are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange.

Limiting values

Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to November 2018

Not So Moist

3-year trends to November 2018

November raw anomaly data (orange)

In November 2018, the top four graphs show that raw values of moisture anomalies moved up away from the moist values of October, but not as far as earlier drought values.
For temperature anomalies, daily maximum and subsoil rose again, while, daily minimum fell from its extremely high value

 Fully smoothed data (red)

At this time, Manilla was entering an extreme drought. Each of the smoothed climate anomalies shown on these graphs contributed to the drought to some degree, and with more or less lag.

By May 2018, the last date for which data can be fully smoothed (as described below), most variables had not yet peaked in their contribution. Several more months of data will reveal the complete cycle into and out of drought.
The anomaly of daily maximum temperature (x-axis, all graphs) had already peaked in March 2018. (In the 2002 drought daily maximum temperature had peaked after the peak of minimum rainfall, not before.)
In May 2018 the rainfall anomaly was still becoming more negative, to a record low value of minus 28.3 mm . June and July rainfall anomalies seemed likely to be similar after smoothing.
Cloudiness was decreasing towards a minimum (perhaps in August 2018) without becoming much less cloudy than normal.
Dew point anomaly was still decreasing, and seemed likely to reach a record low value about August.
The anomaly of daily temperature range had been at a (high) level characteristic of drought since the winter of 2017. It had changed little since, and seemed likely to peak in June 2018 without approaching the record value of July 2002.
The anomaly of daily minimum temperature has a cryptic relation to drought. In this case, the value peaked sharply in February 2018 before falling rapidly. It may have reached a minimum about August 2018.
The anomaly of subsoil temperature was rising rapidly in May 2018, and seemed likely to peak about July, lagging four months behind the daily maximum temperature anomaly.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to October 2018

Moist

3-year trends to October 2018

October raw anomaly data (orange)

In October 2018, raw values of three anomalies moved low on the graphs, showing more moisture . They were: cloudy days percent, dew point, and (narrow) daily temperature range. Rainfall increased from very low back to normal.
For temperatures, daily maximum fell to normal, daily minimum rose extremely high, and subsoil temperature fell very low.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Fully smoothed data for April 2018 did not break the previous month’s record for daily maximum temperature anomaly (x-axis), as I had thought it would.
The April smoothed rainfall anomaly of minus 27.8 mm (top left graph) beat the 21st-century record minus value of 27.1 mm set in July 2002.
In April 2018, the trend for decreasing rainfall with increasing daily maximum temperature (top left graph), which had had lasted eight months, altered as temperature began to fall.. At that date, the three other moisture anomaly variables were moving rapidly up the graphs towards drought.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly was falling from a recent maximum in February. Subsoil temperature anomaly continued its sustained rapid rise.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.