3-year trends to April 2020

April, like March, continued cool

April raw anomaly data (orange)

Current raw anomaly values for April appeared very little changed from those of March. However, as noted below, many values are estimates only.


Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes), which had been very high until January, remained near -1.5°.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): stayed just below normal.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): stayed near normal.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left) stayed near normal.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): fell from very high to high.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): remained normal.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right) stayed near -1.5°.

 Fully smoothed data values (red) 

The fully-smoothed daily maximum temperature anomaly for October 2019 again broke the 21st century record, reaching a value of 2.21° above normal. The daily minimum anomaly also rose, but the subsoil anomaly fell. Despite the high and increasing air temperatures, smoothed moisture anomalies for October 2019 did not move further towards drought.

Due to illness, 45 days were missed for some Manilla values for the whole of April 2020. No values were noted for cloud or soil temperature; daily maximum and minimum air temperatures were estimated by regression on values from Tamworth Airport Automatic Weather Service.]


January data points are marked by squares.


Smoothing uses Gaussian functions.
For fully smoothed data the function has a Standard Deviation of 2.5 months, it spans 13 monthly data points, and has a half-width of 6 months, which suppresses cycles shorter than 12 months. For partly smoothed data, the span of the function is reduced to 11 months, 9 months and so on.

Fully smoothed data points are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange.

Limiting values

Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

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