Seasons were strange in 2016

In the year 2016, the seasonal climate cycles at Manilla, NSW were abnormal. Heat and cold, moisture and dryness did not come at the usual times.

Temperature and rainfall graphs

Mean monthly temperature

 

Graphs of monthly temperatures, normal and 2016The first graph shows the mean temperatures for each calendar month, both in a normal year (red) and in the year 2016 (blue). In 2016. earlier months, such as April, were warmer, and later months, such as October, were cooler. The difference (anomaly) is plotted below. Anomaly values in this year rise and fall rather steadily in a single cycle that lags months behind the normal summer-winter cycle. The amplitude of this anomaly cycle in 2016 is 5.3 degrees, which is nearly one third of the normal summer to winter amplitude of 16.4 degrees.

 

Monthly total rainfall

Graphs of monthly rainfall totals, normal and 2016In the same format, the second graph shows the rainfall totals for each calendar month, both in a normal year (red) and in the year 2016 (blue). The mid-year months of June, August, and September, usually dry, were very wet in 2016. The anomaly graph adds to this that rainfall was very low in February, March and April, and again in November and December. Rainfall anomaly does not show such a clear cycle as temperature does, but the effect is bigger. The difference in anomaly between September (+80 mm) and November (-40 mm) is 120 mm, while normally the difference between the wettest month (January) and the driest month (April) is only 48 mm.

Climate anomaly graphs and trends for 2016

The other two graphs add more climate anomaly variables and show the trends through the year 2016.
[See Notes below for an explanation.]

Monthly heat anomalies for 2016

Heat anomalies and trends

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February Climate Anomalies Log

Heat indicators log for February

This post is the twelfth in a set for the 12 calendar months that began with March. Graphs are sixteen-year logs of the monthly mean anomaly values of nine climate variables for Manilla, NSW, with fitted trend lines. I have explained the method in notes at the foot of the page.

Raw anomaly values for February

Extreme values of February anomalies were as follows:

Daily Maximum Temperature Anomalies (3) -4.2 deg: February 2008; -3.3 deg: February 2012; -3.3 deg: February 2013;
Daily Mean Temperature Anomalies (1) -3.3 deg: February 2008;
Rainfall Anomalies (1) +120 mm: February 2012;
Dew Point Anomalies (2) -4.6 deg: February 2014; -4.6 deg: February 2015.

Trend lines for February

Heat Indicators

All heat indicator quartic trends began slightly low and ended slightly low. They had a low peak about 2004, and a trough later. The trough was deepest and earliest for daily maximum temperature (2011), followed by daily mean temperature in 2012, daily minimum temperature in 2014, and subsoil temperature in 2015 or later.

Moisture indicators log for February

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January Climate Anomalies Log

Heat indicators log for January

This post is the eleventh in a set for the 12 calendar months that began with March. Graphs are sixteen-year logs of the monthly mean anomaly values of nine climate variables for Manilla, NSW, with fitted trend lines. I have explained the method in notes at the foot of the page.

Raw anomaly values for January

Extreme values of January anomalies were as follows:

Daily Maximum Temperature Anomalies (1) -3.7 deg: January 2012;
Rainfall Anomalies (5) -70 mm: January 2002; -75 mm: January 2003; +80 mm: January 2004; +94 mm: January 2006; -85 mm: January 2014;
Dew Point Anomalies (2) +3.1 deg: January 2006; -7.4 deg: January 2014.

Trend lines for January

Heat Indicators

All heat indicator quartic trends began low and ended slightly high, and had a low peak in 2003, -05, or -06, and a shallow trough about 2012.

Moisture indicators log for January

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December Climate Anomalies Log

Heat indicators log for December

This post is the tenth in a set for the 12 calendar months that began with March. Graphs are sixteen-year logs of the monthly mean anomaly values of nine climate variables for Manilla, NSW, with fitted trend lines. I have explained the method in notes at the foot of the page.

Raw anomaly values for December

Extreme values of December anomalies were as follows:

Daily Maximum Temperature Anomalies (2) -3.6 deg:
December 2010; -4.7 deg: December 2011;
Rainfall Anomalies (1) +80 mm: December 2004;
Minus (Temperature Range Anomaly) (1) +3.7 deg: December
2010;
Dew Point Anomalies (1) -4.4 deg: December 2013.

Trend lines for December

Heat Indicators

All heat indicator quartic trends began low and ended high, and had a peak in 2003 or 2004 and a trough in 2010. The range from peak to trough was greatest for maximum anomalies and least for minimum and subsoil anomalies.

Moisture indicators log for December

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November Climate Anomalies Log

Heat indicators log for November

This post is the ninth in a set for the 12 calendar months that began with March. Graphs are sixteen-year logs of the monthly mean anomaly values of nine climate variables for Manilla, NSW, with fitted trend lines. I have explained the method in notes at the foot of the page.

Raw anomaly values for November

Extreme values of November anomalies were as follows:

Daily Maximum Temperature Anomalies (4) +3.6 deg: November 2002; +5.5 deg: November 2009; +3.0 deg: November 2012; +5.0 deg: November 2014;
Daily Mean Temperature Anomalies (2) +4.6 deg: November 2009; +4.0 deg: November 2014;
Daily Minimum Temperature Anomalies (1) +3.8 deg: November 2009;
Rainfall Anomalies (4) +65 mm: November 2000; +66 mm: November 2001; +65 mm: November 2008: +176 mm!: November 2011;
Dew Point Anomalies (2) -5.4 deg: November 2013; -4.1 deg: November 2014;
Moisture Index (1) +3.3 deg: November 2011.

Trend lines for November

Heat Indicators

All heat indicator quartic trends began low and ended high. The trends for daily maximum and for subsoil had a peak in 2003 or 2004 and a trough in 2008 or 2010. The trend for daily mean was constant from 2004 to 2008, while the trend for daily minimum persistently rose, at a reducing rate.

Moisture indicators log for November

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October Climate Anomalies Log

Heat Indicators log for October months

This post is the eighth in a set for the 12 calendar months that began with March. Graphs are sixteen-year logs of the monthly mean anomaly values of nine climate variables for Manilla, NSW, with fitted trend lines. I have explained the method in notes at the foot of the page.

This series of posts gets more than its share of views. This is strange, as they contain little information. Comparing graphs for adjacent months shows widely different values and trends. In due course, I will compare all twelve months with each other. Perhaps that will yield interesting results, or perhaps not.

Raw anomaly values for October

Extreme values of October anomalies in this period were all in the “Moisture Indicators” group:

Cloudy days % anomalies (2) +31%: October 2010, 2011;
Dew Point Anomalies (5) +3.9°: October 1999, -3.9°: October 2002, -6.6°: October 2012, -7.8°: October 2013, -5.9°: October 2014.
Moisture Index (2) -3.1°: October 2012, -3.2°: October 2013.

Trend lines for October

Heat Indicators

The trend lines of daily maximum, mean and minimum temperature anomalies all had an early trough in 2001, a peak near 2006, and a trough near 2011. The daily minimum trend had the longer period and the larger amplitude. The subsoil temperature trend peaked early, in 2001, and had a very broad trough around 2009.

Moisture Indicators log for October months

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September Climate Anomalies Log

Heat Indicators log for September months

This post is the seventh in a set for the 12 calendar months that began with March. Graphs are sixteen-year logs of the monthly mean anomaly values of nine climate variables for Manilla, NSW, with fitted trend lines. I have explained the method in notes at the foot of the page.

Raw anomaly values for September

Extreme values of September anomalies in this period were all in the “Moisture Indicators” group:

Temperature range anomaly (minus) +3.6 deg: September 2010;
Cloudy days % anomaly +33%: September 2010;
Dew Point Anomalies (4) -3.8 deg: September 2011, -4.7 deg: September 2012, -4.9 deg: September 2013, -4.1 deg: September 2014.

Trend lines for September

Heat Indicators

The trend of daily maximum temperature anomalies was concave, with a minimum at 2007. The trend of mean temperature anomalies was similar, but less concave. The trend of minimum temperature anomaly was almost straight, but had a weak maximum in 2008 and ended low. The subsoil temperature anomaly trend was parallel to that of the daily maximum, but higher.

Moisture Indicators log for September months

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