3-year trends to July 2017

Fine with a wide daily temperature range

3-year climate trends to July 2017

July raw anomaly data (orange)

In July 2017 the largest anomaly was the very wide daily temperature range (middle right graph). This was linked to the daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left graph) falling suddenly very low.
All moisture indicators pointed to aridity (upwards), and the anomalies of both daily maximum temperature and subsoil temperature were high.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

The latest available fully-smoothed data point, January 2017, showed continued warming in the anomalies of maximum, minimum and subsoil temperatures. These were coming to a peak: the maximum and minimum perhaps in February, but subsoil not for several months.
Moisture anomaly variables were near a peak of aridity. Dew point had peaked (low) in November, cloudiness (low) and daily temperature range (high) in January, with rainfall (low) likely in February.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

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3-year trends to June 2017

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
A 13-month “Mackellar cycle”

3-year climate trends to June 2017

June raw anomaly data (orange)

In June 2017 the daily maximum temperature was normal. Moisture variables were low on the graphs, showing rather high moisture. Both daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature were high. For each variable, the raw value was close to the smoothed value of June 2016, just twelve months earlier.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

The latest available fully-smoothed data point, December 2016, showed warming and drying. Only the dew point anomaly had just passed a “dry” peak. Smoothed subsoil temperature anomaly, which had reached a record low value in November, began to rise, like both of the air temperature anomalies.

The Mackellar cycle

Manilla’s climate variables often move in the cycle of “droughts and flooding rains” from Dorothea Mackellar’s poem “My Country”.*

In that cycle, temperature and moisture move together: hot with dry, cold with wet. On my graphs, hot is to the right. The top four graphs have dry at the top. (I count daily temperature range anomaly as a moisture indicator: high values show dryness.)

The “Mackellar cycle” drives the anomaly values up and down the blue trend lines that skew from cold-and-wet at the lower left to hot-and-dry at the upper right. The path is seldom straight, as any lead or lag of moisture will curve it into an ellipse.

Ellipses on the graphs show the cycle has been strong for two years since the winter of 2015. Its period has been very short: only twelve or thirteen months. Daily maximum air temperature anomaly reached a peak in February of both 2016 and 2017 (hot in late summer-autumn), and reached a trough in August-September 2016 (cold in late winter-spring).

On the top four graphs the cycle advances around an ellipse clockwise. A peak of dryness (up) comes several months before the related peak of daily maximum temperature anomaly (right). Similarly, wetness (down) comes before low temperature (left). I have posted already about the way this cycle skewed the seasons in 2016.

The two graphs at the bottom contain only temperatures. Circles on those graphs show that both the daily minimum temperature anomaly and the subsoil temperature anomaly have been lagging the daily maximum temperature anomaly by several months during these last two years (and not before).


In a post to a “weatherzone” forum, I have annotated (in green) the graph for Dew Point Anomaly versus Daily Max Temp Anomaly. It is the one that shows most clearly the elliptical trace caused by the cycles. That forum thread: “Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO, SAM etc.)” has almost no reports of climate cycles observed in Australia.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.


*By arrangement with the Licensor, The Dorothea Mackellar Estate, c/- Curtis Brown (Aust) Pty Ltd.

3-year trends to May 2017

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Record cold subsoil November 2016”3-year climate trends to May 2017

May raw anomaly data (orange)

While not far from normal, May 2017 was warm and humid (“Interglacial”), in contrast to April, which had been cool and arid (“Glacial”).The daily temperature range remained normal as both maximum and minimum temperature anomalies rose. Subsoil temperature rose above normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

The most recent fully-smoothed data point, for November 2016, completes data for the spring season. Following a winter that had been cool and moist, spring showed rapid warming and drying. The November dew point seems to have reached a minimum: one not nearly as low (arid) as in the previous two years.
The smoothed anomaly of daily minimum temperature, which had hit a record high value in May 2016, approached a minimum value that was near normal in October, and began to rise again.
Smoothed subsoil temperature anomaly reached a new record low value of -1.16° in November. It beat a record that was set in March 2008, a few months after the global temperature minimum of October 2007.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to April 2017

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Cold-Arid ‘Glacial'”

Climate trends to April 2017

April raw anomaly data (orange)

In terms of anomalies, April 2017 was even cooler than March, but much more arid. Anomalies of both daily maximum and daily minimum temperature fell by more than three degrees from February values, (They plot near the margins of the lower left graph.)
On most of the graphs, raw anomaly values for April plot towards the top left corner. Rather than moving along the top-right-to-bottom-left axis of “Droughts and flooding rains”, they combine low temperature and aridity as happened in ice ages.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

The most recent fully-smoothed data is for October 2016. Following a winter that was cool and moist, October shows a climate becoming steadily warmer and drier.
The smoothed anomaly of daily minimum temperature, which had hit a record high value in May 2016, approached a minimum value that was near normal.
Subsoil temperature anomaly was still falling rapidly, and was certain to reach a new record low smoothed value in November.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to March 2017

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Very rainy and cloudy”

3-year trends to March 2017

March raw anomaly data (orange)

March 2017 was dramatically cooler and more moist than the extremely hot and dry February. March days were cooler than normal and both rainfall and cloud were very high. Dew point and daily temperature range moved to the moist side of normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

The most recent fully-smoothed data is for September 2016. Following a winter that was cool and moist, September days remained cool but the climate became drier.
The smoothed anomaly of daily minimum temperature, which had hit a record high value in May 2016, approached normal. Subsoil temperature fell rapidly to below normal.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to February 2017

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Extreme heat with little rain”

3-year trends to February 2017.

February raw anomaly data (orange)

In February 2017 days became extremely hot and rainfall very low. The subsoil temperature rose from low to normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Fully-smoothed values are now available for the winter months (June, July, and August) of 2016. That winter, as daily maximum temperature fell through normal values, a maximum in moisture was shown by maxima in rainfall, cloudiness, and dew point, and a minimum in daily temperature range. None of the smoothed values was extreme; in fact, the dew point remained on the dry side of normal.
Not only daily maximum temperature anomaly fell during the summer. Both the daily minimum temperature anomaly and the subsoil temperature anomaly also fell. The smoothed daily minimum temperature anomaly had just reached a record high value in May, and was still above normal as the summer ended.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to January 2017

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“January 2017 very hot”

3-year trends to January 2017

January raw anomaly data (orange)

In January 2017 both days and nights became even hotter. While rainfall was low, dew point was high.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

At the time of the latest fully-smoothed anomalies, in July 2016, most variables were still moving towards towards cool and moist.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.