3-year trends to February 2017

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Extreme heat with little rain”

3-year trends to February 2017.

February raw anomaly data (orange)

In February 2017 days became extremely hot and rainfall very low. The subsoil temperature rose from low to normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Fully-smoothed values are now available for the winter months (June, July, and August) of 2016. That winter, as daily maximum temperature fell through normal values, a maximum in moisture was shown by maxima in rainfall, cloudiness, and dew point, and a minimum in daily temperature range. None of the smoothed values was extreme; in fact, the dew point remained on the dry side of normal.
Not only daily maximum temperature anomaly fell during the summer. Both the daily minimum temperature anomaly and the subsoil temperature anomaly also fell. The smoothed daily minimum temperature anomaly had just reached a record high value in May, and was still above normal as the summer ended.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to January 2017

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“January 2017 very hot”

3-year trends to January 2017

January raw anomaly data (orange)

In January 2017 both days and nights became even hotter. While rainfall was low, dew point was high.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

At the time of the latest fully-smoothed anomalies, in July 2016, most variables were still moving towards towards cool and moist.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to December 2016

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“December 2016 hot with cold subsoil”

3-year trends to December 2016

December raw anomaly data (orange)

In December 2016 both days and nights became hot, but the subsoil remained cold. Other variables were near normal. During the last six months all partially-smoothed anomaly values moved around the edges of the graphs.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

At the time of the latest fully-smoothed anomalies, in June 2016, most variables were moving rapidly towards cool and moist.
Daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature, however, fell slightly from a peak in May. The subsoil temperature was normal, but the daily minimum temperature anomaly had reached a new record high for a smoothed value in May 2016: +1.34 degrees.

Subsoil temperature

The observed changes in subsoil temperature are a mystery. Generally, they are like those of daily maximum temperature, but with leads or lags as shown by curved arrows on the bottom right graph. They relate well to daily minimum temperature, as shown by the similar patterns on the bottom two graphs. This month, however, the raw anomaly of subsoil temperature is very low, while those of maximum and minimum air temperature are very high.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to November 2016

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“November 2016 cold nights warm days”

3-year trends to November 2016

 

November raw anomaly data (orange)

In November 2016 the daily maximum temperature anomaly rose sharply to a high value. Moisture variables also moved high on the graphs: Temperature range became very high, rainfall low, dew point low, and cloud below normal. Daily minimum air temperature and subsoil temperature (bottom graphs) remained extremely low.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

The autumn months (MAM) of 2016 are now fully smoothed. Daily maximum temperature moved down into the normal range. All moisture values increased, but only the rainfall and daily temperature range were in the normal range of values: skies were more cloudy than normal, but the dew point was below normal.
Daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature rose slightly during the autumn season. However, while the subsoil temperature was normal, the daily minimum temperature anomaly reached a new record high for a smoothed value in May 2016: +1.34°, beating the value of +1.32° reached in December 2009. This variable may peak in June 2016.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to October 2016

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“October 2016 still cold”

Trends to October 2016

October raw anomaly data (orange)

In October 2016 daily maximum air temperature continued extremely low. Now daily minimum air temperature and subsoil temperature (bottom graphs) also became extremely low. Most other variables returned to near normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

The latest fully-smoothed data point is April 2016.
By then, most anomalies were moving definitely towards cool and moist. However, daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature were rising.
In April 2016, the smoothed anomaly of daily minimum temperature was extremely high. It was approaching the 18-year record value of +1.32°, set in December 2009.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to September 2016

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“September 2016 extreme cold and rain”

Trends to September 2016

September raw anomaly data (orange)

September 2016 was extremely wet and had extremely cold days. Axes on the graph had to be extended to anomaly values of minus 80 mm for rainfall and minus four degrees for daily maximum temperature. In sympathy, cloudiness and dew point were extremely high and daily temperature range was extremely low.
On the first graph, partially-smoothed rainfall and temperature values had moved consistently in the same direction since March.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

The latest fully-smoothed data point is March 2016.
Rainfall, temperature range anomaly and daily maximum temperature had been static for three months. The latter had been rather high, the others normal. Cloudiness, dew point and temperature range had begun to move down the graph, while daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature had begun to move up.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

Climate trends for thermal soaring

For pilots who soar at Lake Keepit or Mount Borah: relevant summer climate data for Manilla, NSW, since 1999.

Graph of some summer climate variables 1999 to 2015.

Variables relevant to thermal soaring

From my data I have selected three variables that are relevant to success in soaring flight using thermals. I have chosen to use values for summer: a total or average for the three months of December, January and February.
The variables are:

  • The number of hot days, when the maximum temperature was over 33°C;
  • The number of sunny days, when the cloud amount seen at 9 am was less than two octas;
  • The average daily temperature range in degrees celsius.

Changing values of the variables

The graph shows that each variable fluctuated wildly, with each summer very different from the last. These variables often moved in the same sense.
Two summers had high values of all three variables: 2006-07 and 2013-14. Two summers had low values of all three variables: 2007-08 and 2011-12. I would expect that longer and faster thermal soaring flights would have been achieved in the summers with high values, compared to those with low values.

Trends

I have fitted linear trend lines, and displayed their equations within the graph.
All three trend lines slope down. This suggests that summer thermal soaring conditions have been getting worse.
I have cited the values of “R-squared”, the Coefficient of Determination. All three R-squared values are abysmally low. Even the best is below 20%, which can be taken to mean that more than 80% of the variation has nothing to do with the trend line shown.
You could say that the trends are nonsense, but we are dealing with Climate Change here!

The future

In the spirit of Mark Twain, we can extend the trend lines forward to where they come to zero:

  • There will be no hot days above 33° by the summer of 2118;
  • There will be no sunny mornings with less than 2 octas of cloud by 2073;
  • Days will be no warmer than nights by 2423.

That last date seems too remote to worry about. However, the daily temperature range will be unacceptable when it gets down to 11°. That is the current summer value for Lasham, England, after all. According to the trend, the daily temperature range will be worse than at Lasham by 2117. That is the same year that the very last 33° day is expected.

Global Warming

You may be surprised that the linear trend lines fitted to this data set slope downwards. It seems to contradict Global Warming. Continue reading