Wet Autumn 2017

Sunset photo.

Manilla Sunset

Autumn this year had normal temperatures, in stark contrast to very high temperatures both in the summer and in the autumn of last year. The decline to winter was not smooth, however, but went by steps. For three weeks in each month there was no cooling then, after some rain, there was a sudden cooling through three, four, or five degrees.
Rain fell frequently except for two gaps of a fortnight each, the first coming in mid-April. The second ended with 32.8 mm of rain registered on May the 20th. There were 26 rain days, which is twice usual number, and more than in any autumn in the new century.

Graphical log for autumn 2017

There was plenty of moisture. Only the early morning dew point (8.1°) was low, by half a degree. The daily temperature range was a narrow 14.5°, and the cloudiness a high 41%.
The total rainfall of 192.8 mm was at the 80th percentile, far above the autumn average of 134 mm. There has not been a wetter autumn since 1990 (203 mm). A little earlier there was a cluster of wetter autumns: 1977 (307 mm), 1979 (203 mm), 1982 (238 mm), 1983 (314 mm: 4th wettest), and 1988 (231 mm). Autumn 1894 was the very wettest, with 388 mm.

Climate for autumn 2017


Data. A Bureau of Meteorology automatic rain gauge operates in the museum yard. From 17 March 2017, 9 am daily readings are published as Manilla Museum, Station 55312.  These reports use that rainfall data when it is available. All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to May 2017

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Record cold subsoil November 2016”3-year climate trends to May 2017

May raw anomaly data (orange)

While not far from normal, May 2017 was warm and humid (“Interglacial”), in contrast to April, which had been cool and arid (“Glacial”).The daily temperature range remained normal as both maximum and minimum temperature anomalies rose. Subsoil temperature rose above normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

The most recent fully-smoothed data point, for November 2016, completes data for the spring season. Following a winter that had been cool and moist, spring showed rapid warming and drying. The November dew point seems to have reached a minimum: one not nearly as low (arid) as in the previous two years.
The smoothed anomaly of daily minimum temperature, which had hit a record high value in May 2016, approached a minimum value that was near normal in October, and began to rise again.
Smoothed subsoil temperature anomaly reached a new record low value of -1.16° in November. It beat a record that was set in March 2008, a few months after the global temperature minimum of October 2007.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to April 2017

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Cold-Arid ‘Glacial'”

Climate trends to April 2017

April raw anomaly data (orange)

In terms of anomalies, April 2017 was even cooler than March, but much more arid. Anomalies of both daily maximum and daily minimum temperature fell by more than three degrees from February values, (They plot near the margins of the lower left graph.)
On most of the graphs, raw anomaly values for April plot towards the top left corner. Rather than moving along the top-right-to-bottom-left axis of “Droughts and flooding rains”, they combine low temperature and aridity as happened in ice ages.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

The most recent fully-smoothed data is for October 2016. Following a winter that was cool and moist, October shows a climate becoming steadily warmer and drier.
The smoothed anomaly of daily minimum temperature, which had hit a record high value in May 2016, approached a minimum value that was near normal.
Subsoil temperature anomaly was still falling rapidly, and was certain to reach a new record low smoothed value in November.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to March 2017

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Very rainy and cloudy”

3-year trends to March 2017

March raw anomaly data (orange)

March 2017 was dramatically cooler and more moist than the extremely hot and dry February. March days were cooler than normal and both rainfall and cloud were very high. Dew point and daily temperature range moved to the moist side of normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

The most recent fully-smoothed data is for September 2016. Following a winter that was cool and moist, September days remained cool but the climate became drier.
The smoothed anomaly of daily minimum temperature, which had hit a record high value in May 2016, approached normal. Subsoil temperature fell rapidly to below normal.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to February 2017

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Extreme heat with little rain”

3-year trends to February 2017.

February raw anomaly data (orange)

In February 2017 days became extremely hot and rainfall very low. The subsoil temperature rose from low to normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Fully-smoothed values are now available for the winter months (June, July, and August) of 2016. That winter, as daily maximum temperature fell through normal values, a maximum in moisture was shown by maxima in rainfall, cloudiness, and dew point, and a minimum in daily temperature range. None of the smoothed values was extreme; in fact, the dew point remained on the dry side of normal.
Not only daily maximum temperature anomaly fell during the summer. Both the daily minimum temperature anomaly and the subsoil temperature anomaly also fell. The smoothed daily minimum temperature anomaly had just reached a record high value in May, and was still above normal as the summer ended.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to January 2017

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“January 2017 very hot”

3-year trends to January 2017

January raw anomaly data (orange)

In January 2017 both days and nights became even hotter. While rainfall was low, dew point was high.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

At the time of the latest fully-smoothed anomalies, in July 2016, most variables were still moving towards towards cool and moist.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.