3-year trends to June 2020

June: again warm and dry

3-year climate trends at Manilla

June raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes), having been negative for three months, returned to positive.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): returned from normal to positive.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): returned from normal to positive.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left) returned from normal to negative (dry).
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): returned from high (cloudy) to near normal.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): remained normal.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right) returned from narrow to near normal.

 Fully smoothed data values (red) 

Fully-smoothed data for December 2019 shows that only the daily minimum temperature was increasing. Other temperatures became cooler, and all the moisture indicators (rainfall, cloud, dew point, and daily temperature range) moved downward, showing decreasing drought.

[Note.
Due to illness, 45 days were missed for some Manilla values, mainly in April 2020. No values were noted for cloud or soil temperature; daily maximum and minimum air temperatures were estimated by regression on values from Tamworth Airport Automatic Weather Service.]


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

Smoothing Continue reading

November 2019: one warm week

Bushfire smoke

Manilla View 18-11-2019

One week, beginning on the 20th, was 5.4° warmer than normal. The night of the 22nd did not get cooler than 24.0°, making it the 5th warmest November night in this century. (One night in November 2009 had been 27.8°, the warmest night of any month.) In other weeks of this month, temperatures were normal.
Most days were dry and sunny. However, days early and late in the month were cloudy, with high dew points and narrow daily temperature ranges. Six of these days had rain, with the highest reading 16.4 mm on the 4th.
Smoke from coastal bushfires reduced visibility from the 17th to the 29th. On the 18th, visibility was only one kilometre, as shown in the photo.

November 2019 weather log

Comparing November months

Although this month was warm. other November months have been warmer: in 2002, 2009, 2012, and 2014. All of these had especially warm days. While days this month averaged 31.8°, days in November 2009 averaged 34.3°. The coolest recent November was in 2017.
This was a dry month but, by various measures, not as dry as in 2002, 2009, 2014 or 2016. The rainfall total of 40.2 mm is in the 27th percentile.

November climate

Drought

I will report separately on the on-going drought that continues to break low-rainfall records at durations of 15-months and longer.


Data. A Bureau of Meteorology automatic rain gauge operates in the museum yard. From 17 March 2017, 9 am daily readings are published as Manilla Museum, Station 55312.  These reports use that rainfall data when it is available. Recording resumed on 20 July 2019.
My estimates of early morning dew point have drifted anomalously low. From August 2019, I use data from the Tamworth Airport published graphs.
All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

June 2019 still warm and dry

Road in Manilla

The Bendemeer road

The second week was 3.2° warmer than normal, the third week cool, and the fourth warm again. There were 12 frosts (normally 13), with that on the 22nd reading minus 4.3° in the screen. It was one of only 20 readings below minus 4.0° this century.
The wettest of the four rain days registered only 2.3 mm.

Weather log June 2019

Comparing June months

The mean temperature for June has changed little in recent years. It has slowly fallen from 11.5° in 2013 to 10.8°. That is higher by 0.5° than the 10.3° that was normal in the first decade of this century. This month’s mean daily maximum (18.3°) and mean daily minimum (3.3°) were also just 0.5° above normal.
This June was a little more moist than last June in its higher dew point and narrower daily temperature range but less moist in cloudiness and rainfall. The low total rainfall of 4.8 mm (est.) is at the 8th percentile, the 12th driest June on record.
Climate for June 2019

Drought

The on-going unprecedented drought is reported in another post.


Data. A Bureau of Meteorology automatic rain gauge operates in the museum yard. From 17 March 2017, 9 am daily readings are published as Manilla Museum, Station 55312.  These reports use that rainfall data when it is available.  Since no 9 am readings have been recorded since August 2018, I have substituted my non-standard gauge readings for all days.
All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

May 2019 had the warmest nights

Keepit Dam boom, May 2019

The month began warm, with the night of the 2nd being, at 18.0°, the warmest May night of the new century. There was a second warm spell nearly four degrees above normal about the 20th.
The first frost (by my reading) came on the 12th of May this year, and on the 15th of May last year. The middle date of first frost is May 13th.
There were three rain days (usually four) but nearly all the rain (61 mm) was recorded on the 4th.

Weather log May 2019

Comparing May months

The mean temperature this month (14.6°) was high, but not as high as in May 2007 (15.1°). However, the mean daily minimum temperature (8.1°) was the warmest for May in the new century: above normal by 2.3°.
A rather narrow daily temperature range (13.1°) and high percentage of cloudy days (45%) showed moisture above normal.
The (estimated) rainfall total of 61.8 mm was very high, in the 75th percentile. Because no rain at all had fallen in April, the total for the two months together reached only to the 26th percentile.

Climate for May 2019

Drought

The on-going unprecedented drought is reported in another post.


Data. A Bureau of Meteorology automatic rain gauge operates in the museum yard. From 17 March 2017, 9 am daily readings are published as Manilla Museum, Station 55312.  These reports use that rainfall data when it is available.  Since no 9 am readings have been recorded since August 2018, I have substituted my non-standard gauge readings for all days.
All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

No Rain Days in April 2019

Split Rock Reservoir 4-5-19

A warm spell in the third week was 4.2° above normal. There were 29 days over 25°, many more than usual. Anzac Day (25th) was sunny, calm and warm. It reached 28.2°, which was four degrees above average for that day, but not up to the 28.7° of Anzac Day 2002.
There were no rain days (usually four) and the dew point on the 28th reached a record low April value of minus 3.2°. There were no frosts.

Weather log for April 2019

Comparing April months

This month was warm (average 19.8°), but not as warm as April 2018, 2016 or 2005. The mean daily maximum of 27.8° was well below that of April 2005 (29.5°).
There was no rain, as in April 1912, 1925, 1942 and 1971. Dry air was shown by early morning readings of low dew point (5.8°) and very low relative humidity (67%). However, normal moisture was shown by 30% cloudy days and a daily temperature range of 15.9°.

The last seven April months

Drought

The on-going unprecedented drought is reported in another post.


Data. A Bureau of Meteorology automatic rain gauge operates in the museum yard. From 17 March 2017, 9 am daily readings are published as Manilla Museum, Station 55312.  These reports use that rainfall data when it is available.  Since no 9 am readings have been recorded since August, I have substituted my non-standard gauge readings for all days.
All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.