Tag Archives: warm

3-year trends to July 2020

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

July: warm and humid

3-year climate trends to July 2020 at Manilla

July raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes), remained near +1 deg.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): rose very high (+2.5 deg).
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): remained very high.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left) just below normal.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): near normal.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): just above normal.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right) low (humid).

 Fully smoothed data values (red) 

Fully-smoothed data for January 2020 shows that the daily maximum temperature anomaly continued to fall from the record value of October 2019. The daily minimum and subsoil values were static.
All the moisture indicators (rainfall, cloud, dew point, and daily temperature range) continued to move downward, showing decreasing drought.

Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

Smoothing Continue reading →

July 2020: warm and humid

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by

Weather log for July 2020

Repeating the pattern of June, the second week of July was 3° above normal. Again, one night (11th) was remarkably high above normal (9.8°). The final week was also warm.
There were 14 frosts (normally 17), but the number of cloudless days (5) was equal lowest for July.
Seven days registered rain above 0.2 mm, the highest being 10.4 mm on the 27th.

Manilla weather log July 2020

Comparing July months

The mean monthly temperature of 11.1° was the same as last year: only 0.3° lower than the warmest July (11.4° in 2013). However, days were rather cool (18.0°), while nights (4.3°) were the 2nd warmest for July. The resulting daily temperature range of 13.7° was narrower than normal. That suggests humidity, agreeing with a high dew point (3.2°) and cloudiness (39%).
The rainfall total of 31.3 mm, being at the 44th percentile, is still well below the July average (41 mm). However, no July rainfall has been much higher at Manilla in eight years (91.4 mm in 2012).

Manilla climate July 2020

Drought

I will report separately on the on-going drought, that still breaks low-rainfall records.

Data. A Bureau of Meteorology automatic rain gauge operates in the museum yard. From 17 March 2017, 9 am daily readings are published as Manilla Museum, Station 55312.  These reports use that rainfall data when it is available. Recording resumed on 20 July 2019. The gauge failed again during February (25/02/2020 ), but was repaired on 11/3/20.
My estimates of early morning dew point have drifted anomalously low. From August 2019, I use data from the Tamworth Airport published graphs.
All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to June 2020

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

June: again warm and dry

3-year climate trends at Manilla

June raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes), having been negative for three months, returned to positive.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): returned from normal to positive.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): returned from normal to positive.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left) returned from normal to negative (dry).
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): returned from high (cloudy) to near normal.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): remained normal.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right) returned from narrow to near normal.

 Fully smoothed data values (red) 

Fully-smoothed data for December 2019 shows that only the daily minimum temperature was increasing. Other temperatures became cooler, and all the moisture indicators (rainfall, cloud, dew point, and daily temperature range) moved downward, showing decreasing drought.

[Note.
Due to illness, 45 days were missed for some Manilla values, mainly in April 2020. No values were noted for cloud or soil temperature; daily maximum and minimum air temperatures were estimated by regression on values from Tamworth Airport Automatic Weather Service.]

Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

Smoothing Continue reading →

November 2019: one warm week

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by
Bushfire smoke

Manilla View 18-11-2019

One week, beginning on the 20th, was 5.4° warmer than normal. The night of the 22nd did not get cooler than 24.0°, making it the 5th warmest November night in this century. (One night in November 2009 had been 27.8°, the warmest night of any month.) In other weeks of this month, temperatures were normal.
Most days were dry and sunny. However, days early and late in the month were cloudy, with high dew points and narrow daily temperature ranges. Six of these days had rain, with the highest reading 16.4 mm on the 4th.
Smoke from coastal bushfires reduced visibility from the 17th to the 29th. On the 18th, visibility was only one kilometre, as shown in the photo.

November 2019 weather log

Comparing November months

Although this month was warm. other November months have been warmer: in 2002, 2009, 2012, and 2014. All of these had especially warm days. While days this month averaged 31.8°, days in November 2009 averaged 34.3°. The coolest recent November was in 2017.
This was a dry month but, by various measures, not as dry as in 2002, 2009, 2014 or 2016. The rainfall total of 40.2 mm is in the 27th percentile.

November climate

Drought

I will report separately on the on-going drought that continues to break low-rainfall records at durations of 15-months and longer.

Data. A Bureau of Meteorology automatic rain gauge operates in the museum yard. From 17 March 2017, 9 am daily readings are published as Manilla Museum, Station 55312.  These reports use that rainfall data when it is available. Recording resumed on 20 July 2019.
My estimates of early morning dew point have drifted anomalously low. From August 2019, I use data from the Tamworth Airport published graphs.
All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

June 2019 still warm and dry

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by
Road in Manilla

The Bendemeer road

The second week was 3.2° warmer than normal, the third week cool, and the fourth warm again. There were 12 frosts (normally 13), with that on the 22nd reading minus 4.3° in the screen. It was one of only 20 readings below minus 4.0° this century.
The wettest of the four rain days registered only 2.3 mm.

Weather log June 2019

Comparing June months

The mean temperature for June has changed little in recent years. It has slowly fallen from 11.5° in 2013 to 10.8°. That is higher by 0.5° than the 10.3° that was normal in the first decade of this century. This month’s mean daily maximum (18.3°) and mean daily minimum (3.3°) were also just 0.5° above normal.
This June was a little more moist than last June in its higher dew point and narrower daily temperature range but less moist in cloudiness and rainfall. The low total rainfall of 4.8 mm (est.) is at the 8th percentile, the 12th driest June on record.
Climate for June 2019

Drought

The on-going unprecedented drought is reported in another post.

Data. A Bureau of Meteorology automatic rain gauge operates in the museum yard. From 17 March 2017, 9 am daily readings are published as Manilla Museum, Station 55312.  These reports use that rainfall data when it is available.  Since no 9 am readings have been recorded since August 2018, I have substituted my non-standard gauge readings for all days.
All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.