3-year trends to June 2020

June: again warm and dry

3-year climate trends at Manilla

June raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes), having been negative for three months, returned to positive.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): returned from normal to positive.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): returned from normal to positive.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left) returned from normal to negative (dry).
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): returned from high (cloudy) to near normal.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): remained normal.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right) returned from narrow to near normal.

 Fully smoothed data values (red) 

Fully-smoothed data for December 2019 shows that only the daily minimum temperature was increasing. Other temperatures became cooler, and all the moisture indicators (rainfall, cloud, dew point, and daily temperature range) moved downward, showing decreasing drought.

[Note.
Due to illness, 45 days were missed for some Manilla values, mainly in April 2020. No values were noted for cloud or soil temperature; daily maximum and minimum air temperatures were estimated by regression on values from Tamworth Airport Automatic Weather Service.]


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

Smoothing

Smoothing uses Gaussian functions.
For fully smoothed data the function has a Standard Deviation of 2.5 months, it spans 13 monthly data points, and has a half-width of 6 months, which suppresses cycles shorter than 12 months. For partly smoothed data, the span of the function is reduced to 11 months, 9 months and so on.

Fully smoothed data points are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange.

Limiting values

Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

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