Tag Archives: climate anomalies

3-year trends to June 2019

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June warm and dry

3-yeqr climate trends to June 2019

June raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes): near the upper limit of normal values.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): near the upper limit of normal values.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): very high.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left): very low.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): normal.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): low, like the other recent values.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right): normal.

 Latest fully smoothed data (red), December 2018

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature equaled the record positive value of +1.62° set in March 2018.
Daily minimum temperature set a new record of +1.98°, beating +1.65° set the previous month.
Subsoil was normal due to phase lag.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall smoothed anomaly was a new 136-year record value of -30.8 mm per month, breaking the record of -29.7 mm set the previous month.
Cloudiness was normal.
Dew point was low.
Daily temperature range was normal.

Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

Smoothing

Smoothing uses Gaussian functions.
For fully smoothed data the function has a Standard Deviation of 2.5 months, it spans 13 monthly data points, and has a half-width of 6 months, which suppresses cycles shorter than 12 months. For partly smoothed data, the span of the function is reduced to 11 months, 9 months and so on.
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3-year trends to March 2014

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Plunge toward ‘flooding rains’ *“Trends to March 2014.

Raw values of climate anomalies for March 2014 are nearly all in the bottom left corner “flooding rains” after months in the opposite corner “droughts”. Daily minimum temperature remains high: nights are warm.
Fully-smoothed values for September 2013 show that the drought was becoming as severe as in 2002. The dew point anomaly reached a new record low value of -3.94°.

* By arrangement with the Licensor, The Dorothea Mackellar Estate, c/- Curtis Brown (Aust) Pty Ltd.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to February 2014

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Drought advanced in winter; now retreating”Trends to February 2014

Raw values of climate anomalies for February 2014 moved positively away from the high temperature and low moisture of “droughts”. Daily minimum temperature increased but this, too, goes with more moisture.
Data points for the three months of winter 2013 are now fully-smoothed. They show a steady progress towards drought in increasing maximum temperature and daily temperature range, and reducing rainfall, cloudiness, and humidity (dew point). Daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature  peaked already in July.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to January 2014

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“January rain fails”Trends to January 2014

Raw values for several climate anomalies in January 2014 were extreme: daily maximum temperature: plus 2.1°, rainfall: minus 85 mm, dew point: minus 7.3°, and temperature range: plus 1.5°.
Fully-smoothed values for July 2013 move in the direction of “droughts”.
Subsoil temperature reaches a new record for fully-smoothed data of plus 2.36°, beating the record set a month earlier.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to June 2013

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Suddenly very wet”Trends to June 2013.

 

While days were only a little cooler than normal in June, moisture variables were extremely high. Rainfall, cloudiness and daily temperature range went beyond the blue lines. Cloudiness reached a record for this data set.
Both daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature were also very high.

The fully-smoothed data point for December 2012 shows a drift towards normal from the mild drought of October.

Note:
Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.