3-year trends to March 2014

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Plunge toward ‘flooding rains’ *Trends to March 2014.

Raw values of climate anomalies for March 2014 are nearly all in the bottom left corner “flooding rains” after months in the opposite corner “droughts”. Daily minimum temperature remains high: nights are warm.
Fully-smoothed values for September 2013 show that the drought was becoming as severe as in 2002. The dew point anomaly reached a new record low value of -3.94°.


* By arrangement with the Licensor, The Dorothea Mackellar Estate, c/- Curtis Brown (Aust) Pty Ltd.


Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to February 2014

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Drought advanced in winter; now retreating”Trends to February 2014

Raw values of climate anomalies for February 2014 moved positively away from the high temperature and low moisture of “droughts”. Daily minimum temperature increased but this, too, goes with more moisture.
Data points for the three months of winter 2013 are now fully-smoothed. They show a steady progress towards drought in increasing maximum temperature and daily temperature range, and reducing rainfall, cloudiness, and humidity (dew point). Daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature  peaked already in July.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to January 2014

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“January rain fails”Trends to January 2014

Raw values for several climate anomalies in January 2014 were extreme: daily maximum temperature: plus 2.1°, rainfall: minus 85 mm, dew point: minus 7.3°, and temperature range: plus 1.5°.
Fully-smoothed values for July 2013 move in the direction of “droughts”.
Subsoil temperature reaches a new record for fully-smoothed data of plus 2.36°, beating the record set a month earlier.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to June 2013

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Suddenly very wet”Trends to June 2013.

 

While days were only a little cooler than normal in June, moisture variables were extremely high. Rainfall, cloudiness and daily temperature range went beyond the blue lines. Cloudiness reached a record for this data set.
Both daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature were also very high.

The fully-smoothed data point for December 2012 shows a drift towards normal from the mild drought of October.

Note:
Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to May 2013

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Still warm; not quite so dry”Trends to May 2013.

May continued warm, but not quite so dry. Skies became cloudy again, and minimum temperature rose back to normal.

Points in red for November 2012 complete fully-smoothed data for spring 2012. They define a reversal of climate. Anomalies of moisture variables (rainfall, cloud, dew point, and (minus) temperature range) peaked in the “drought” sense in September or October. The anomaly of daily maximum temperature peaked (probably) in November, and that of daily minimum temperature peaked later (date uncertain).

The curved red arrows on the first graph emphasise the fact that, for these peaks and troughs, temperature extremes came a month or more after rainfall extremes.

ENSO and this 3-year temperature-rainfall-humidity record

I discussed the match between Manilla climate variation at this time and the El Niño – Southern Oscillation in a post on the weatherzone forum thread “ENSO Discussion 2013”: Post #1195723 of 26 May 2013.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to April 2013

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Back to warm and very dry”Trends to April 2013.

In April the raw value of maximum temperature anomaly became high and (indicating aridity) those of rainfall, dew point, and minimum temperature extremely low, and that of temperature range extremely wide. Cloud remained normal, and subsoil temperature high.

Fully-smoothed data points (red) for October 2012 continued to move towards higher maximum temperature, but scarcely moved further towards drought.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to March 2013

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Now cool and wet”Trends to March 2013.

While raw values of temperature anomalies were not as low as in February, March was further towards cool, moist conditions than December or January, or any months since July.

Fully-smoothed data points (red) for September 2012 continued to move towards drought. The dew point anomaly reached a seventh successive new record low: -3.37 degrees.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.