3-year trends to October 2016

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“October 2016 still cold”

Trends to October 2016

October raw anomaly data (orange)

In October 2016 daily maximum air temperature continued extremely low. Now daily minimum air temperature and subsoil temperature (bottom graphs) also became extremely low. Most other variables returned to near normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

The latest fully-smoothed data point is April 2016.
By then, most anomalies were moving definitely towards cool and moist. However, daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature were rising.
In April 2016, the smoothed anomaly of daily minimum temperature was extremely high. It was approaching the 18-year record value of +1.32°, set in December 2009.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to September 2016

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“September 2016 extreme cold and rain”

Trends to September 2016

September raw anomaly data (orange)

September 2016 was extremely wet and had extremely cold days. Axes on the graph had to be extended to anomaly values of minus 80 mm for rainfall and minus four degrees for daily maximum temperature. In sympathy, cloudiness and dew point were extremely high and daily temperature range was extremely low.
On the first graph, partially-smoothed rainfall and temperature values had moved consistently in the same direction since March.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

The latest fully-smoothed data point is March 2016.
Rainfall, temperature range anomaly and daily maximum temperature had been static for three months. The latter had been rather high, the others normal. Cloudiness, dew point and temperature range had begun to move down the graph, while daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature had begun to move up.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to August 2016

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“August 2016 cool and wet”

Trends to August 2016

August raw anomaly data (orange)

August 2016 was marked by low mean daily maximum temperature and high total rainfall. On the first graph the data point is in the cold wet “flooding rains” corner. However, the other five variables are close to normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Fully-smoothed data is now available for the summer of 2015-16. Most variables became static in that season, but cloudiness increased, dew point fell, and subsoil temperature rose.
Most variables were close to normal: rainfall, cloudiness, daily temperature range and subsoil temperature. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures were rather high, while dew point was low. [Low dew point anomalies near the line (y = -x – 3) rather than (y = -x) may be due to an instrument error, since corrected.]


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

September 2015 cold and dry

Photo of native clematis

Native clematis

Few days or nights in September were warmer than normal. The 23rd was a very cold day (17.1°) and the 24th had a very cold morning (-0.1°). The weekly temperature was near normal in the third week, but it had been cool in the first. It was cold (4.7 below normal) in the fourth week, and was rising through normal at the month’s end.
As is usual in September, most days were fine, and they were much warmer than the nights. The afternoon humidity was low (24%), but not nearly as low as in 2013 (15%).
Rain fell on only four days, with the highest reading 8.6 mm on the 4th.

Weather log for September 2015

 Comparing September months

In a dramatic change from August, both days and nights were very cold, as they were in September 2004.
The aridity was not quite as bad as in 2013, when the dew point was lower and there was less cloud.
Such cold, dry conditions are not those of an El Niño event (hot and dry) or of a La Niña event (cold and wet). If more extreme, they would be those of a glacial period.
The rainfall of 15.9 mm was well below average, in the 22nd percentile. There are still no serious shortages in rainfall totals for small numbers of months. A severe shortage (4th percentile) has appeared in the 30 month total (1186 mm). There are still deep ponds in Greenhatch Creek.

Climate for September 2015


Data. All data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla. Rainfall data up to 26/3/15 is from Manilla Post Office, Station 055031.

3-year trends to September 2015

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“September 2015: cold and dry”

Trends to September 2015

 

September raw anomaly data (orange)

September brought big changes in all raw values of climate anomalies, except for daily temperature range, which stayed rather low.
There was a sharp drop in temperatures: maximum, minimum and subsoil.
Moisture measures – rainfall, cloud and dew point – all fell.

These transitory values are unlike either the hot arid values of El Niño conditions in eastern Australia or the cold moist La Niña conditions. They are like a mild form of the cold arid conditions that are thought to have occurred in glacial periods.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Fully-smoothed anomaly values for March 2015 continued the trends of late summer. Most moved further away from drought. Daily minimum temperature became static, and subsoil temperature began to rise.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

2011-12 Summer Cold and Wet

Weather log summer 2011-12.In the whole of this summer, only 3 days went over 35° (usually 23) and only 5 nights went over 20° (usually 19).

The smoothed curves of temperature reached up as high as normal only twice. In early January both days and nights were normal. Later, with persistent rain around the 1st of February, nights warmed to normal, but days were extremely cold.
All the mean daily temperatures were the lowest in 13 summers: maximum 28.9°, mean 22.2°, and minimum 15.4°. Summer ’07-’08 had been just slightly warmer.
Daily temperature range this summer (13.5°) was very narrow, as in ’07-’08 and ’10-’11; all wet summers with very cloudy skies. Strangely, this cloudy wet summer had very low humidity, with morning Dew Point (12.7°) the lowest on this record.
While this was a very wet summer, at 333 mm, it was only the 19th wettest (86th percentile), and not much wetter than summers 4, 6, and 8 years ago.Climate summer 2011-12.

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

Wet cloudy October 2011 began cold

The daily weather logWeather log October 2011.

October began very cold throughout NSW, southern Queensland and central Australia. At Manilla the maximum on Sunday the 2nd was only 13.4°: 12.6° below normal, and the coldest October day in 13 years. During the month, the air slowly warmed up to normal. The subsoil was also very cold in the second week, but only slightly cool later.
Rain fell every few days except for the week beginning on Sunday the 16th. Most rain came as showers or storms. The highest reading was 22.6 mm on the 26th. In 10 rain days (3 more than usual) the total was 97.4 mm.

 Comparing October monthsClimate October 2011.

Mean temperature readings and the Dew Point were well below normal. The average October temperature has fallen steadily since October 2007.  While that month was rather dry and sunny, October 2002 was much drier (15 mm rain) and sunnier (only 6% cloudy days).
Fifty-eight percent cloudy mornings is a record high value for October, equal with last year, and more than twice normal.
The rainfall of 97.4 mm is very high, in the 84th percentile for October (Average: 58.1 mm.). Most rainfall totals for groups of months are now high. Among groups of 108 months or less, the driest is the 30-month total which is not very dry: in the 37th percentile. In that 30 months there was 1516 mm of rain, just 100 mm below normal.


Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.