3-year trends to September 2015

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“September 2015: cold and dry”

Trends to September 2015


September raw anomaly data (orange)

September brought big changes in all raw values of climate anomalies, except for daily temperature range, which stayed rather low.
There was a sharp drop in temperatures: maximum, minimum and subsoil.
Moisture measures – rainfall, cloud and dew point – all fell.

These transitory values are unlike either the hot arid values of El Niño conditions in eastern Australia or the cold moist La Niña conditions. They are like a mild form of the cold arid conditions that are thought to have occurred in glacial periods.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Fully-smoothed anomaly values for March 2015 continued the trends of late summer. Most moved further away from drought. Daily minimum temperature became static, and subsoil temperature began to rise.


Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s