November 2015 had warm days and nights

Photo of seeding clematis

“Old Man’s Beard”

By the last week of October, the weather had cooled down to normal. In November, this continued until the 15th, with rain falling on eight of the days. The highest rainfall reading was 30.0 mm on the 5th.
After that, the weather was fine. Both days and nights were warm, but no day got to 40°. The weekly average temperature reached about four degrees above normal, as it had done early in October.

Weather log November 2015

 Comparing November months

This was a warm November, by day and by night. However, November 2014 had been hotter, and November 2009 very much hotter. The average daily maximum temperature in November 2009 (34.3°) was nearly 3° higher than in this month (31.5°).
Moisture indicators for this month were close to normal, although there was not much cloud. The dew point is no longer very low, as in the last three Novembers.
The rainfall of 73.8 mm was above average, in the 63rd percentile. The climate graph still includes the phenomenally high rainfall of November 2011: 242.9 mm, the highest November rainfall since the record began in 1883. (The next highest was 226 mm in November 1961.)
There are now no serious shortages in rainfall totals for ANY number of months. For the last 30 years, Manilla has enjoyed rainfalls close to normal. The 30-year total of 19,449 mm to this date is within 100 mm from the median 30-year total of 19,360 mm. In all that time, the most extreme major rainfall events were the 2002 winter-spring drought, and the 2011-2012 summer deluge.

Climate for November 2015


Data. All data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla. Rainfall data up to 26/3/15 is from Manilla Post Office, Station 055031.

3-year trends to November 2015

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“November 2015: warm days and nights”

Trends to November 2015

November raw anomaly data (orange)

While November daily maximum anomalies were not as warm as in October, daily minimum anomalies were warmer (on the lower left graph). Apart from these, nearly all other climatic anomalies for November were near normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

The latest fully smoothed data (May 2015) completes the autumn months (MAM) of 2015. In that season, no variables were changing much. Daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, subsoil temperature, and monthly rainfall were all near normal. Skies were rather cloudy, daily temperature range rather narrow and dew point (as is now usual) rather low. It seemed certain that the winter season would see a trend reversal: minimum values in the anomalies of daily maximum temperature and daily temperature range, and maximum values in the anomalies of daily minimum temperature, subsoil temperature, monthly rainfall, cloudiness, and dew point.

The three-year pattern

In these three years, a repeating annual cycle is best seen in the centre-right graph, which relates daily temperature range to daily maximum temperature. In May of each year the climate was relatively cool and equable (or maritime), while in October of each year it was relatively warm and extreme (or continental).


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to November 2014

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“November 2014 more droughty”

Trends to November 2014

November data (orange)

The raw anomaly value for daily maximum temperature became extremely high: +5.1°. (The record positive anomaly was +5.6°, set in November 2009.) There were also extreme “droughts” values for high daily minimum temperature, high daily temperature range and low monthly rainfall. Values for cloudy days, dew point and subsoil temperature were near normal.

Fully smoothed data (red)

The latest fully-smoothed data (May 2014) complete the season of autumn 2014. The movement away from the mild drought of late 2013 ended in this month. Rainfall was rather low, skies rather cloudy, dew point low (near a new “normal”), temperature range and subsoil temperature normal.
Contrariwise, the smoothed anomaly of daily minimum temperature peaked in May 2014, showing a more maritime climatic episode.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

Still hot and dry in November 2014

Silky oak trees in full bloom

November Silky Oaks

Although the month began near normal, with two rain days, the weather became hot and dry again. Saturday the 22nd reached 41.4°, to be the second hottest November day on this 15-year record.
There were two heat waves, with the average weekly temperature above normal by 6.1° on the 12th and by 7.0° on Sunday the 23rd. (November of 2009 had a worse heat wave, being above normal by 9.5°, and reaching 31.3°: the hottest week in any month.)
Most nights this month were warm, with low dew points. By contrast, many days were cloudy.

 Weather log November 2014

Comparing November months

On average, the month was not quite as hot as November 2009, the hottest this century. The air was again very dry, with an early morning dew point of 7.1°, a little higher than the lowest value (5.7°) recorded for November last year.
Following only three years after the wettest November on the 130-year record (242.9 mm), the total rainfall of only 24 mm was in the 15th percentile. That is, such low November rainfalls happen about one year in seven. However, the time since a lower November rainfall (15 mm in November 1990) is thirteen years: the longest gap ever.
For the third month in a row, little changed in rainfall totals for periods of more than one month. There is no longer a serious shortage in the 6-month total (now in the 10th percentile) but there are now serious shortages in the totals for 5 months (9th percentile), 9 months (8th percentile), 15 months (6th percentile), 18 months (6th percentile), and 30 months (9th percentile). There is one severe shortage: the total for 12 months (393 mm) is in the 4th percentile.

Climate fro November 2014


Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash  Street, Manilla.

November Climate Anomalies Log

Heat indicators log for November

This post is the ninth in a set for the 12 calendar months that began with March. Graphs are sixteen-year logs of the monthly mean anomaly values of nine climate variables for Manilla, NSW, with fitted trend lines. I have explained the method in notes at the foot of the page.

Raw anomaly values for November

Extreme values of November anomalies were as follows:

Daily Maximum Temperature Anomalies (4) +3.6 deg: November 2002; +5.5 deg: November 2009; +3.0 deg: November 2012; +5.0 deg: November 2014;
Daily Mean Temperature Anomalies (2) +4.6 deg: November 2009; +4.0 deg: November 2014;
Daily Minimum Temperature Anomalies (1) +3.8 deg: November 2009;
Rainfall Anomalies (4) +65 mm: November 2000; +66 mm: November 2001; +65 mm: November 2008: +176 mm!: November 2011;
Dew Point Anomalies (2) -5.4 deg: November 2013; -4.1 deg: November 2014;
Moisture Index (1) +3.3 deg: November 2011.

Trend lines for November

Heat Indicators

All heat indicator quartic trends began low and ended high. The trends for daily maximum and for subsoil had a peak in 2003 or 2004 and a trough in 2008 or 2010. The trend for daily mean was constant from 2004 to 2008, while the trend for daily minimum persistently rose, at a reducing rate.

Moisture indicators log for November

Continue reading

Rain came back in November 2013

The daily weather logWeather log November 2013

By November the 11th, there had been only 70 mm of rain since the deluge in June. The humidity had been getting lower by the month. From that day, rain and high humidity returned. Days and nights became cooler than normal, with more cloudy skies. Most of the seven wet days were showery, but the 29th had steady rain.

Comparing November monthsClimate November 2013.

The weather change on the 11th returned most monthly average values closer to normal. However, despite the rain, this was still an “Arid” month, with a record low November mean morning dew point, a wide daily temperature range, and few cloudy mornings. The mean subsoil temperature (23.8°) was 1.9° above normal, exceeded (in the 21st century) only by 24.7° in November 2002.
The total rainfall of 95.6 mm was in the 80th percentile, well above the average of 67 mm. This disposes of all serious shortages in rainfall totals. The worst figure now is the 5-month total of 166 mm, which is 56 mm below normal (19th percentile).


Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to November 2012

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“In drought”

Trends to November 2012.

In November, the anomaly of daily maximum temperature (which had paused near zero for five months) suddenly rose to +3°. Daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature also rose, but moisture variables (including daily temperature range) retreated from values typical of extreme drought. November was hotter, but not quite so dry.

Fully-smoothed data (in red) now include all of autumn (March-April-May) 2012. During autumn, all smoothed variables showed a steady advance towards the top right corner of the graphs (“droughts”). However, four variables were still on the “flooding rains” side of neutral: maximum temperature, rainfall, cloud, and minimum temperature. Two variables were already on the “drought” side: dew point and subsoil temperature. Temperature range was neutral.
The May 2012 value of smoothed dew point anomaly (-2.30°) is a new record low for smoothed data, beating the record of the previous month (-2.00°). Following months will be even more arid.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.