3-year trends to November 2014

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“November 2014 more droughty”

Trends to November 2014

November data (orange)

The raw anomaly value for daily maximum temperature became extremely high: +5.1°. (The record positive anomaly was +5.6°, set in November 2009.) There were also extreme “droughts” values for high daily minimum temperature, high daily temperature range and low monthly rainfall. Values for cloudy days, dew point and subsoil temperature were near normal.

Fully smoothed data (red)

The latest fully-smoothed data (May 2014) complete the season of autumn 2014. The movement away from the mild drought of late 2013 ended in this month. Rainfall was rather low, skies rather cloudy, dew point low (near a new “normal”), temperature range and subsoil temperature normal.
Contrariwise, the smoothed anomaly of daily minimum temperature peaked in May 2014, showing a more maritime climatic episode.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

Still hot and dry in November 2014

Silky oak trees in full bloom

November Silky Oaks

Although the month began near normal, with two rain days, the weather became hot and dry again. Saturday the 22nd reached 41.4°, to be the second hottest November day on this 15-year record.
There were two heat waves, with the average weekly temperature above normal by 6.1° on the 12th and by 7.0° on Sunday the 23rd. (November of 2009 had a worse heat wave, being above normal by 9.5°, and reaching 31.3°: the hottest week in any month.)
Most nights this month were warm, with low dew points. By contrast, many days were cloudy.

 Weather log November 2014

Comparing November months

On average, the month was not quite as hot as November 2009, the hottest this century. The air was again very dry, with an early morning dew point of 7.1°, a little higher than the lowest value (5.7°) recorded for November last year.
Following only three years after the wettest November on the 130-year record (242.9 mm), the total rainfall of only 24 mm was in the 15th percentile. That is, such low November rainfalls happen about one year in seven. However, the time since a lower November rainfall (15 mm in November 1990) is thirteen years: the longest gap ever.
For the third month in a row, little changed in rainfall totals for periods of more than one month. There is no longer a serious shortage in the 6-month total (now in the 10th percentile) but there are now serious shortages in the totals for 5 months (9th percentile), 9 months (8th percentile), 15 months (6th percentile), 18 months (6th percentile), and 30 months (9th percentile). There is one severe shortage: the total for 12 months (393 mm) is in the 4th percentile.

Climate fro November 2014


Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash  Street, Manilla.

November Climate Anomalies Log

Heat indicators log for November

This post is the ninth in a set for the 12 calendar months that began with March. Graphs are sixteen-year logs of the monthly mean anomaly values of nine climate variables for Manilla, NSW, with fitted trend lines. I have explained the method in notes at the foot of the page.

Raw anomaly values for November

Extreme values of November anomalies were as follows:

Daily Maximum Temperature Anomalies (4) +3.6 deg: November 2002; +5.5 deg: November 2009; +3.0 deg: November 2012; +5.0 deg: November 2014;
Daily Mean Temperature Anomalies (2) +4.6 deg: November 2009; +4.0 deg: November 2014;
Daily Minimum Temperature Anomalies (1) +3.8 deg: November 2009;
Rainfall Anomalies (4) +65 mm: November 2000; +66 mm: November 2001; +65 mm: November 2008: +176 mm!: November 2011;
Dew Point Anomalies (2) -5.4 deg: November 2013; -4.1 deg: November 2014;
Moisture Index (1) +3.3 deg: November 2011.

Trend lines for November

Heat Indicators

All heat indicator quartic trends began low and ended high. The trends for daily maximum and for subsoil had a peak in 2003 or 2004 and a trough in 2008 or 2010. The trend for daily mean was constant from 2004 to 2008, while the trend for daily minimum persistently rose, at a reducing rate.

Moisture indicators log for November

Continue reading

Rain came back in November 2013

The daily weather logWeather log November 2013

By November the 11th, there had been only 70 mm of rain since the deluge in June. The humidity had been getting lower by the month. From that day, rain and high humidity returned. Days and nights became cooler than normal, with more cloudy skies. Most of the seven wet days were showery, but the 29th had steady rain.

Comparing November monthsClimate November 2013.

The weather change on the 11th returned most monthly average values closer to normal. However, despite the rain, this was still an “Arid” month, with a record low November mean morning dew point, a wide daily temperature range, and few cloudy mornings. The mean subsoil temperature (23.8°) was 1.9° above normal, exceeded (in the 21st century) only by 24.7° in November 2002.
The total rainfall of 95.6 mm was in the 80th percentile, well above the average of 67 mm. This disposes of all serious shortages in rainfall totals. The worst figure now is the 5-month total of 166 mm, which is 56 mm below normal (19th percentile).


Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to November 2012

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“In drought”

Trends to November 2012.

In November, the anomaly of daily maximum temperature (which had paused near zero for five months) suddenly rose to +3°. Daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature also rose, but moisture variables (including daily temperature range) retreated from values typical of extreme drought. November was hotter, but not quite so dry.

Fully-smoothed data (in red) now include all of autumn (March-April-May) 2012. During autumn, all smoothed variables showed a steady advance towards the top right corner of the graphs (“droughts”). However, four variables were still on the “flooding rains” side of neutral: maximum temperature, rainfall, cloud, and minimum temperature. Two variables were already on the “drought” side: dew point and subsoil temperature. Temperature range was neutral.
The May 2012 value of smoothed dew point anomaly (-2.30°) is a new record low for smoothed data, beating the record of the previous month (-2.00°). Following months will be even more arid.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Warm, Dry November 2012

The daily weather logWeather log November 2012

Most days this month were warmer than normal. As last seen in 2002, no November daily maxima were below 25°. The month ended with a weekly average temperature nearly seven degrees above normal.
Seven afternoons had extra-ordinarily low humidities below 10 percent, and eight mornings had very low dew points (below 5°).
Rain came mainly as showers, totalling only 48.2 mm in seven rain days.

 Comparing November monthsClimate November 2012.

Warm temperatures this month were far lower than in November 2009, when Manilla and other places suffered a heat wave.

Very dry air is shown by the low mean early morning dew point of 8.8°. This is the lowest November value in 14 years, below the 1999 value of 9.6°. However, October’s value of 1.7° was very much lower.
The rainfall of 48.2 mm is in the 35th percentile for November, well below the average of 67 mm. The four-month rainfall total (92 mm) and the nine-month rainfall total (317 mm) are serious shortages, in the 8th and 9th percentiles. The 15-month total is still over a metre, which is keeping pools of water in the bed of Greenhatch Creek.


Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

 

3-year trends to November 2011

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Bizarre values of climate anomalies”Trends to November 2011.

Most raw values for variables for November 2011 are bizarre. The rainfall anomaly (top left) is so high the scale has had to be extended by four times. The daily maximum temperature anomaly (all graphs, x-axis) has jumped from very low to high. High temperature seldom occurs with high rainfall, but that is thought to be normal in an interglacial climate. Similarly for the high Dew Point (centre left) with high maximum temperature. Two other temperatures jumped up along with maximum temperature: minimum temperature, and subsoil temperature.

Fully-smoothed data points (red) are now available for the autumn months (MAM) of 2011. Each variable showed a steady trend in one direction (but this did not continue through winter).
Max temp increased towards normal.
Rainfall decreased through normal.
Cloudiness was high but decreasing.
Dew Point (humidity) was below normal and falling very rapidly.
Temperature Range was rising towards normal.
Min temp was falling through normal as max temp was rising: a trend from equable towards extreme.
Subsoil temperature increased with maximum temperature.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.