3-year trends to March 2018

Hot and rather dry

3-year trends to March 2018.

March raw anomaly data (orange)

March 2018 was more like January than February. Day and night temperature anomalies were high. Moisture anomalies retreated somewhat from very low values. Subsoil temperature moved back from low to normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

In the latest fully-smoothed data, for September 2017, temperatures, which had been static, began to increase. On the other had, moisture anomalies, which had been moving up the graphs towards drought, became static.

Earlier, the month of February 2017 marked a sharp reversal of trend in climate anomalies. Daily maximum temperature anomaly peaked. Most anomalies (not rainfall) retraced in March and April the values of January and December. The curvature of the trace (relative to daily maximum temperature anomaly) kept the same sense after April 2107 as before December 2016. For subsoil temperature anomaly, the trend reversal came four months later, in June 2017.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

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3-year trends to February 2012

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“February 2012 very cold and wet”Trends to February 2012.

Recent partly-smoothed data points generally diverge rapidly from the near-neutral values of winter. February raw anomalies include extremely high rainfall and extremely low daily maximum and minimum temperatures.
Low humidity persists, marked by negative Dew Point anomalies, despite extreme rainfall and cloud cover.

Winter 2011 a time of trend reversal

Fully smoothed data points are now available for Winter 2011. Most variables show stable near-zero anomaly values at a time of trend reversal:
Max temp anomaly (x-axes, all graphs) had been rising since cold October 2010, but peaked in June 2011 while still negative.
Rainfall anomaly, which had reached a minimum just below zero in May, rose quite rapidly during the winter.
Cloudiness varied little around a minimum in July.
Uniquely, Dew Points were very low: the anomaly reached a new record low smoothed value of -1.70 degrees in July. This beat the drought year smoothed value of -1.48 degrees of September and October 2002.
Daily temperature range was slightly low and falling; so was daily minimum temperature. Subsoil temperature was slightly high and falling.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.