Tag Archives: 2016

3-year trends to July 2016

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“July 2016 extreme cloudiness”

Trends to July 2016.

July raw anomaly data (orange)

In July 2016, raw anomalies for most variables returned towards normal from extreme values in June. Some now fell within the normal range: daily maximum temperature, rainfall, and dew point. Subsoil temperature remained high. Daily temperature range was still very low and daily minimum temperature very high. The variable that became even more extreme in this month was cloudiness.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Fully-smoothed data can now be calculated up to January 2016. By that month the climate, as smoothed, was slightly warmer than in my 1999 to 2009 reference decade.

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

June 2016: extreme rain

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by
Photo of Namoi River in high flow

Namoi River Fresh

This was the fifth wettest June in history, and had the second coldest day in this century.
Average temperatures were several degrees high until the last week, when they fell to three degrees low. In times of cloud and rain, cold days followed warm nights; at other times warm sunny days followed cold nights. There was one extremely warm night and one extremely cold day. The night before the 19th did not get cooler than 12.8°, making it the 5th warmest June night in this century. On the 27th the maximum temperature was only 8.5°: the second coldest day in this record from 1999. People remember the Friday before Queen’s Birthday in 2007 being bitterly cold, but that day reached 8.8°. The 20th of that month was the coldest, reaching only 8.3°.
This month, there were 8 frosts (usually 13) the coldest night being -1.8° in the screen.
Rain fell on 17 days, one day short of the record number here in any month (18 in June 1950!). [Note: Later, March 2017 also had 17 rain days.] The highest reading was 37.0 mm recorded on the 5th. As in May, the afternoon humidity was very high (seldom below 50%).

Weather log for June 2016

Comparing June months

The mean daily maximum temperature (16.4°) was very low, just not nearly as low as in June 2007 (14.3°). On the other hand, the mean daily minimum temperature (5.8°) was very high, as it was in June 2005, 2008, 2009, and 2013. The average temperature for the month (11.1°) was 0.8° above normal. Similarly, the subsoil temperature (16.8°) was 1.5° above normal.
The daily temperature range, normally 15.0°, was 10.6°, the narrowest yet seen in June, narrower than in 2007. Skies were rather cloudy, and the dew point normal.
The phenomenal rainfall of 114.8 mm was in the 97th percentile. There have been four wetter June months since 1883, but they were all before 1931. Thus, this is the wettest June in 86 years! Now, the greatest rainfall “shortage” is the 36-month total (1636 mm) which is in the 16th percentile. Greenhatch Creek is barely flowing, and a neighbour’s dam is almost full.

Climate for June 2016

Data. Rainfall figures for this month are from the automatic rain gauge at Manilla, published on the internet by the Bureau of Meteorology as Station 55031. All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to June 2016

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“June 2016 extreme rain”

Trends to June 2016.

June raw anomaly data (orange)

In June 2016, raw anomalies for all moisture variables became very high, while daily maximum temperature became very cool. Rainfall was more than 70 mm higher than normal (40 mm), and daily temperature range more than 4 degrees narrower than normal (15 degrees). Skies were cloudy and the dew point high. The two other temperature variables did not conform. Daily minimum temperature anomaly was very high, making the climate more coastal. Subsoil temperature anomaly was also high: the curve shows it trailing daily maximum temperature anomaly, after leading it for years.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Fully-smoothed data are now available up to December 2015. In general, it was a time of normal climate. Anomalies were small and changing only slowly. Daily maximum temperature was rather high, and dew point rather low.

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

Autumn 2016 had many warm spells

Posted in Manilla NSW, Season Weather by
Photo of a garden in Manilla NSW

Autumn Garden

The season was marked by a series of warm spells. The three warmest, coming early in each month, reached 3° to 4° above normal. In the first two, days and nights were equally warm; in the third, nights were much higher above normal than days, making the daily temperature range narrower than normal by 4°. The only cool spells having temperatures below normal were in the third week of March and the last week of May. All three frosts of this season came in the final week .
Rain came in five episodes, spaced a week or two apart. There were 12 rain days, which is the usual number, but the highest reading was only 20.8 mm.

Weather log for autumn 2016
This was the warmest autumn in this short record. Daily maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures were all more than 1.5° above the average for the decade beginning March 1999. The subsoil temperature at 750 mm was also rather high.
The composite Moisture Index was normal, rainfall being a little low and cloudiness rather high (36%, when the autumn “normal” is 25%).
The total rainfall of 88.3 mm was below the autumn average of 134 mm, and in the 35th percentile.

Climate for autumn 2016.

All data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla. Rainfall data up to 26/3/15 is from Manilla Post Office, Station 055031.

May 2016: cooling down

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by
Photo of caterpillars in procession.

White Cedar caterpillars.

Until the last week of May, the warm weather of March and April continued. Three nights (early mornings) were more than eight degrees warmer than normal. At 16.5°, the early morning of the 1st was the second warmest for May in this century after 16.9° on 3/5/2000. The first frost (a black frost) came on the 25th, not as late as in 2014, when the first frost came on the 8th of June! (More frost information is here.)

I recorded rain on 7 days (normally 3 in May) but 4 of them had less than 2 mm. The highest reading was 13.8 mm on the 2nd. The afternoon humidity was very high (seldom below 40%) which may explain the bothersome mosquitoes.

 Weather log for May 2016

Comparing May months

The month was warm, especially at night, but not as warm as May in 2007 or 1999.
Skies were more cloudy than usual, at 45% cloudy mornings (more than 4/8 cloud). May is usually sunny, with only 24%, but both 2014 and 2015 had a record 52%
The total rainfall of 34.5 mm was near the average of 41 mm, in the 54th percentile. (Since 1998, every May rainfall except 2011 has been below average.) For the seventh month in a row, there are no serious rainfall shortages for totals for any number of months. Again, the greatest shortage is the 48-month total (2211 mm) which is now in the 14th percentile. Ponds persist in Greenhatch Creek, but a neighbour’s dam is dry.

Climate for May 2016

Data. All data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla. Rainfall data up to 26/3/15 is from Manilla Post Office, Station 055031.