3-year trends to July 2016

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“July 2016 extreme cloudiness”

Trends to July 2016.

July raw anomaly data (orange)

In July 2016, raw anomalies for most variables returned towards normal from extreme values in June. Some now fell within the normal range: daily maximum temperature, rainfall, and dew point. Subsoil temperature remained high. Daily temperature range was still very low and daily minimum temperature very high. The variable that became even more extreme in this month was cloudiness.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Fully-smoothed data can now be calculated up to January 2016. By that month the climate, as smoothed, was slightly warmer than in my 1999 to 2009 reference decade.


Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

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