Summer 2015-16 cool then warm

Photo of San Pedro cactus blooming

San Pedro cactus blooms

Taken as a whole, this summer was nearer to normal than last summer. Several numbers were close to average: daily maximum temperature, daily mean temperature, daily minimum temperature, and daily temperature range. The mean early morning dew point was rather low, while the cloudiness and total rainfall were a little high.
There were two very hot days over 40° (the usual number) and 29 hot days over 35° (just 6 more than usual).

Weather log for summer 2015-16A very cool spell came in early December, between other cool spells in late November and late December. Then, from mid-February through to early autumn, the weather was very warm. With this warmth came dry air, a wide daily temperature range, and sunny skies.
The total rainfall of 253.6 mm was above the summer average of 227 mm. After 20 rain days (the usual number), rainfall ceased on the 4th of February. Had it continued, the total might have reached a very wet 350 mm.

Climate log for summer 2015-16.


All data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla. Rainfall data up to 26/3/15 is from Manilla Post Office, Station 055031.

February 2016: hot, dry days

Photo of cooba blossom

Cooba in February

Weekly average temperatures began 2 or 3 degrees low, but ended with a long warm spell 3 degrees high, that extended into March. Days were especially hot, with the 26th reaching 41.5°, the equal second hottest February day. Nights were seldom very warm, and the early morning of the 26th was 25° cooler than the afternoon.
Few days were cloudy, none of them late in the month
Rain fell only on the 3rd, as three heavy showers of 7mm, 27mm and 13mm. The second shower, at 5pm, had the most intense rain of the new century: 27 mm in less than 27 minutes. Bureau of Meteorology data show that such a half-hour storm, yielding 1 mm of rain per minute, has only a 10% chance of happening here in any year. It is a “one in 10 year event”.

Weather log February 2016

Comparing February months

While the average temperature for the month (25.8°) was normal, the mean daily maximum, at 34.7°, was the hottest for February. A rather low mean daily minimum, (16.8°) made the daily temperature range a desert-like 17.9°. This is the widest February value, 3.5° wider than normal.
Other signs of dryness were the low early morning dew point (10.8°) and very few cloudy mornings (17%).
The total rainfall of 47mm was below the average of 67 mm, but right on the median 50th percentile: just half of all February months have been wetter. Again, there are no serious rainfall shortages for totals for any number of months.

Climate for February 2016


Data. All data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla. Rainfall data up to 26/3/15 is from Manilla Post Office, Station 055031.

January 2016: moist again

Photo of Senna-bush

Jewel-box Cassia

Unlike December, this month saw varying temperatures. The week around the 7th was quite cool. The maximum on the 3rd reached only 22.3°, but worse was to come. The 15th reached only 21.1°: equal coldest January day in the new century (with 31/1/2001). It was more than 12° below normal, and that happens less than once in a year. There was also one very hot day above 40°, which is the normal number for January.
Rain fell, mainly as showers, on ten days spaced through the month. The higher readings were 28.4 mm on the 6th, 24.2 mm on the 23rd, and 27.6 mm on the 24th.

Weather log January 2016.

Comparing January months

Like January last year, this month could be called “moist”. It was cloudy, and the rather cool days were only 14° warmer than the nights.
The total rainfall of 104.7 mm was well above the average of 87 mm, and in the 72nd percentile. Again, there are no serious rainfall shortages for totals for any number of months. In fact, totals for 2-, 3-, 4-, 5-, and 6-months are very high.

El Niño

Manilla’s climate is now out of step with the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This “super” El Niño has not brought dryness here, and the dryness in January 2014 (for example) came at a time without an El Niño.

Climate for January 2016


Data. All data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla. Rainfall data up to 26/3/15 is from Manilla Post Office, Station 055031.

December 2015: normal month, normal year

Senna bush photo

Senna-leaf circles

Very few days or nights were more than four degrees from normal this month. The coldest day (the 23rd) was 24.9°, only 7.6° below normal.
Rain fell, mainly as showers, on nine days spaced through the month. The highest reading was 31 mm on the 10th.

Weather log December 2015

 Comparing December months

Nearly all climate variables were very close to normal. Those furthest from normal were:
Early morning dew point, 9.4°, below normal by 3.9°;
Daily minimum temperature, 17.1°, above normal by 0.7°;
Cloudy days percent, 45%, above normal by 14%.
The total rainfall of 101.9 mm was well above the average of 74 mm. It was almost the same as in last December (99 mm): in the 74th percentile, The two-month total for November and December was also high (176 mm). There are no serious rainfall shortages for totals for any number of months.

Climate for December 2015

The Year 2015

Compared to other years in the new century, this year had day temperatures that were on the average (25.6°), and nights (10.8°) that were just 0.6° above average. The subsoil temperature (20.1°) was also near average.
Like last year, the percentage of mornings with more than four octas of cloud (37%) was close to the recent average (40%) for 2007 to 2014, but much more cloudy than the earlier average (26%) for 2000 to 2006.
The rainfall, 621 mm, was only 31 mm below the long-term rainfall average of 652 mm.


Data. All data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla. Rainfall data up to 26/3/15 is from Manilla Post Office, Station 055031.

Warm Spring 2015

 

View of Redjack Mountain from Manilla

Redjack Mountain

After cool spells in early and late September, the season was marked by two long very warm spells in early October and late November. In these, days were five degrees above normal, the air was very dry, and there was little cloud.

Weather log for spring 2015

On the average, the season was only the fourth warmest spring of the new century. Spring days had been much warmer in 2002 and in 2014, while spring nights had been just as warm in 2002, 2005, 2009, and 2014 as in 2015.
Measures of moisture (rainfall, humidity, cloud, and a narrow daily temperature range) were a little below normal, but not as low as in the last three spring seasons. Humidity (as dew point) had been extremely low in spring 2013.
The total rainfall for the season, 125 mm, was in the 31st percentile. Just four years ago, the spring rainfall total for 2011 was the record-breaking 431.7 mm.

Climate for spring 2015


 Temperature, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.