Tag Archives: Gaussian smoothing

3-year trends to July 2015

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“July 2015: cooler, moister trend”

Trends to July 2015

July raw anomaly data (orange)

The near-normal values of June are now seen as merely interrupting a trend to cooler, moister climate. July had very low day temperature, very high cloudiness, and very low daily temperature range, but dew point was not extreme. Discordantly, rainfall, which had been very high in June, became very low in July.
Night-time and subsoil temperatures continued their trends towards higher values. (Relatively warm nights have now persisted for 17 months.)

Fully smoothed data (red)

January 2015 was relatively cooler by day than the previous month, but each of the other variables moved only slightly down the graphs.

El Niño

In this record, the last hot dry climate phase that matched an El Niño was in November-December 2009. At that time, the daily maximum temperature anomaly was very high, the rainfall anomaly was low, and the daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left graph) was a record high.
Later, in November-December 2013, without an El Niño, Manilla had a more extreme hot dry climate phase. As seen on these graphs (marked in blue), 21st century records were set then for anomalies of high daily maximum temperature, high subsoil temperature, and low dew point.
Now, in July 2015, an El Niño is forecast, but these Manilla graphs show no movement as yet away from cool moist climate.

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to June 2015

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“June 2015: back to normal”

15JunParam

June raw anomaly data (orange)

Nearly all raw anomalies for the latest month are nearer to normal than the partially-smoothed anomalies of the autumn months. They are also quite close to the smoothed values of a year ago. Rainfall stands alone as a high value.

Fully smoothed data (red)

In December 2014, most anomalies were normal, or near normal, and changing only slowly.

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

Cloudy autumn in 2015

Posted in Manilla NSW, Season Weather by
Photo of eucalyptus tree

Eucalyptus albens in bloom

For a time around the 20th of April, days averaged five degrees colder than normal. At that time nights were warm, making the daily temperature range a remarkable eight degrees less than normal. On three occasions the dew point (humidity) was down by six degrees or more: early and late in March, and in mid-May. The sub-soil temperature was low most of the time by up to half a degree, but ended one degree high. Rain fell in each fortnight. The number of rain days (19) was high, but the highest daily reading (26 mm) was normal. Weather log for autumn 2015 This autumn, like the last, was moist. The rainfall, at 137.5 mm, was a little higher (on the 60th percentile) and the mean daily temperature range was a new record narrow value of only 14.0°. The season was very cloudy, with 41% cloudy mornings, but did not beat last year’s record 48%. The early morning dew point, 7.2°, was not even up to normal (8.5°). Warm nights and cool days made the mean temperature normal. Climate for autumn 2015

 Temperature, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to May 2015

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“May 2015: less moist”

Trends to May 2015

May raw anomaly data (orange)

May anomalies moved back towards normal from the cool moist conditions of April for the variables daily maximum temperature, rainfall, and daily temperature range. Cloudiness, however, became extreme, as it had been in the (smoothed data) a year earlier. Daily minimum temperature became very high, keeping the climate in the “Maritime” area. This, again, prevailed just one year ago.

Fully smoothed data (red)

The latest fully-smoothed data anomalies (November 2014) complete the season for spring 2014 (SON). As is most clearly seen in the graph at the bottom right, the daily maximum temperature anomaly (smoothed) reached a minor maximum just above normal in October. Other variables moved little. All were “normal” except the Dew Point anomaly, which had the low value of minus three that has now become normal.

Springtime temperature peaks

Each of the spring seasons of 2012, 2013 and 2014 marked a peak in daily maximum temperature anomalies. Spring 2013 was the hottest, breaking the record for this data set. Spring 2013 also had extreme peaks of lowest rainfall, least cloud, lowest dew point, and highest daily temperature range. This is just what is expected at an extreme El Niño, but there was no El Niño at that time.

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to April 2015

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“April 2015: equable”

Trends to April 2015

  April raw anomaly data (orange)

In April, daily maximum temperature anomaly became very low (-2.1°) while daily minimum temperature anomaly remained high (+0.7°). Other anomalies, except subsoil temperature, moved down the graphs, showing moist conditions. The extremely low temperature range anomaly (-3.0°) shows that the climate was equable, as it had been in the spring of 2010 (a smoothed record value).

Fully smoothed data (red)

The latest fully-smoothed data anomalies (October 2014) moved little, being warm and slightly dry.

Loops in the subsoil anomaly graph

The parametric plot of subsoil temperature anomaly against that of daily maximum temperature (bottom right) shows several clockwise loops. That is, peaks or troughs of subsoil temperature precede those of daily maximum (air) temperature by a month or more. This is not what one would expect. Indeed, where graphs of these variables earlier in this sixteen-year record show such loops, they are always anti-clockwise. Subsoil temperature anmalies lag those of daily maximum air temperature. See the graphs for August 2002, August 2004, August 2006, August 2008, May 2010, and April 2012.

In the last mentioned graph, the three extreme points included show no lag between the two variables. That period, from early 2009 to late 2011 marks the transition from a stable regime of subsoil temperature lagging daily maximum air temperature to the current regime of subsoil temperature leading daily maximum air temperature.

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.