3-year trends to August 2006

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Two more years of stable climate”

Trends to August 2006

These graphs, ending with raw data for August 2006, show fully-smoothed data from September 2003 to February 2006. They include all months of the calendar years 2004 and 2005.
The climate at Manilla was stable during this time, with few smoothed data points falling beyond the “normal” range as specified in the note below.
The daily maximum temperature anomaly (X-values on all graphs) rose during the sunny ( low cloudiness) summer of 2004-05 and remained only half a degree above normal for the rest of 2005. While the maximum temperature was rising, rainfall was falling, reaching a smoothed anomaly of -13.5 mm in March 2005. Then, with maximum temperature steady, the rainfall anomaly increased at 4 mm per month to reach +20.0 mm by November 2005. (Note added in May 2014: It is unusual for rainfall to increase at constant temperature.)
The dew point rose with the rainfall, to reach a maximum smoothed anomaly of +1.09 degrees in November 2005.
Other variables moved very little in the whole period.

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999. They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

(Note added in May 2014: A much later post titled “3-year trends to May 2010” is the first of a consecutive series of parametric plots, updated monthly at the time of observation and originally posted elsewhere.
This earlier data was not edited in this form at the time.
To display all existing fully-smoothed data points at least once, I have prepared these back-dated posts in the same format for:
“3-year trends to August 2002” which includes smoothed data September 1999 to February 2002, covering the calendar years 2000 and 2001.
“3-year trends to August 2004” which includes smoothed data September 2001 to February 2004, covering the calendar years 2002 and 2003.
“3-year trends to August 2006” (this post) which includes smoothed data September 2003 to February 2006, covering the calendar years 2004 and 2005.
“3-year trends to August 2008” which includes smoothed data September 2005 to February 2008, covering the calendar years 2006 and 2007.
In these back-dated posts the anomaly values depend on climate normals that are based on the decade ending February 2009, and were thus not available until after that date. I have written the posts as if they were available at the time.
In places I have written some “Notes added in May 2014” (like this) commenting on how values observed at that time relate to more recent events.)

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