3-year trends to July 2015

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“July 2015: cooler, moister trend”

Trends to July 2015

July raw anomaly data (orange)

The near-normal values of June are now seen as merely interrupting a trend to cooler, moister climate. July had very low day temperature, very high cloudiness, and very low daily temperature range, but dew point was not extreme. Discordantly, rainfall, which had been very high in June, became very low in July.
Night-time and subsoil temperatures continued their trends towards higher values. (Relatively warm nights have now persisted for 17 months.)

Fully smoothed data (red)

January 2015 was relatively cooler by day than the previous month, but each of the other variables moved only slightly down the graphs.

El Niño

In this record, the last hot dry climate phase that matched an El Niño was in November-December 2009. At that time, the daily maximum temperature anomaly was very high, the rainfall anomaly was low, and the daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left graph) was a record high.
Later, in November-December 2013, without an El Niño, Manilla had a more extreme hot dry climate phase. As seen on these graphs (marked in blue), 21st century records were set then for anomalies of high daily maximum temperature, high subsoil temperature, and low dew point.
Now, in July 2015, an El Niño is forecast, but these Manilla graphs show no movement as yet away from cool moist climate.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

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