Tag Archives: 2016

Hard Winter for Solar-passive

Posted in Indoor Climate, Manilla NSW by

Graphical log of daily indoor and outdoor temperatures for winter 2016.

Temperature log: main features

This graph, for 2016, shows a winter pattern of indoor and outdoor temperatures that is typical for this house. Indoor temperatures vary much less than outdoor temperatures, they rise and fall with them, and they are higher nearly all the time.
While the outdoor temperatures shown go as low as minus three degrees, those indoors lie within the winter “comfort zone” from 17° to 24° (see this post) nearly all the time.

Weather this winter

This winter was harsh for a solar-passive house. Near-record rainfall (227 mm) came with the greatest number of cloudy days of any winter in the new century. There were 53 mornings with more than four octas of cloud, when the average is 33.

Heater use

Because cloud limited the the solar gain, I had to use blower heaters far more than in previous winters. My records show that I used 320 kWh ($80) in these heaters this winter, when I normally use about 40 kWh ($10).
Heaters were also used by guests who were present on the six days shown. As well as being unused to the climate, the guests lived in the colder west wing of the house. They may have used 72 kWh ($18). Those guests have kindly written reviews of their visit.
Even using 400 kWh of electricity for personal heating in a winter could not make a detectable change in house temperature. I have found that blower heaters are surprisingly good at making a room in this house comfortable. As the radiant temperature of the walls is only 2° or 3° too low for comfort, it can be compensated by making the air temperature only slightly higher.

The pattern in detail

While cloudy days are not plotted here (Cloud observations for this winter are plotted elsewhere.), cloudy days can be recognised on the graph. In this climate, days with low maximum temperature and high minimum temperature are always due to cloud. Only in fine weather are days warm and nights frosty. The graph shows how the weather goes through a cycle every week or two: sunny days get warmer, then rain sets in. As it clears, the air gets even colder, before warming up again.
Indoor temperatures follow the same cycle, but there are differences. There may be a delay of up to a day, and sometimes longer.

Correlations

I did scatter plots comparing all the variables shown in the first graph and I fitted linear regressions. I present the four scatter-plots that had the highest coefficients of determination (“R-squared”). Continue reading →

Extremely wet winter 2016

Posted in Manilla NSW, Season Weather by
Water flowing over a weir

Manilla Weir Fish Ladder

This winter, with 227.4 mm of rain, was the fifth wettest in the record from 1883. In order of rainfall, wetter winters were: 1920 (318 mm), 1998 (304 mm), 1950 (261 mm) and 1952 (233 mm). This winter’s total was more than 100 mm over the average (125 mm). The heaviest daily fall, 37 mm, was on 5 June, and there were four other falls of more than 15 mm; two in June and two in August.
There were big week-long swings in temperature through June and July. On four occasions nights were more than four degrees warmer than normal and on one occasion days were four degrees cooler than normal. No such swings occurred from late July to mid-August, then days became five degrees cooler than normal. In this winter, there were few spells of either hot days or cold nights. The number of frosts (42) was near the usual number (44).

Graphical log for winter 2016
While the mean temperature of the season was normal, most other measures of climate were not.
The winter seasons of 2016 and 2010 were both extremely moist. Winter 2016 had more rain (227 mm versus 160 mm) and more cloudy days (53% versus 49%). In other respects 2010 was more moist: the dew point was higher (3.7° versus 2.5°), and the days had a narrower temperature range (12.5° versus 12.8°). The daily temperature range for winter is usually much wider: 15.3°. It was 17.5° in winter 2002!

Climate for winter 2016

Rainfall figures for this month are from the automatic rain gauge at Manilla, published on the internet by the Bureau of Meteorology as Station 55031. All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

Wet August 2016 had two cold days

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by
Photo of knife-leaf wattle blooms

Knife-leaf Wattle

Six days with at least eight millimetres of rain made for a very wet August.
On the average, the temperature was normal until the fourth week, which was cool. However, there were two remarkably cold days. The 3rd, at 10.6°, was the second coldest August day and the 22nd, at 11.6°, the fifth coldest. Most nights were cool, around 1°, but several were much warmer, generally with the rain. Most days were sunny, and eighteen of the mornings were frosty, about three more than usual.

Weather log for August 2016

Comparing August months

On average, the days were cold: as cold as in August 2001, but not as cold as in 2008 or 2010. The average night-time temperature, however, was normal. The dew point, while not high, was higher than in the previous four August months.
The monthly rainfall total of 80.2 mm was twice the average (40 mm), and in the 89th percentile. No rainfall total for any number of months is now below the 19th percentile. That is the 42-month total of 1949 mm, which is a mere 313 mm lower than the median 42-month value. Both Greenhatch Creek and Rushes Creek have flowed in recent weeks.

Climate for August 2016

Data. Rainfall figures for this month are from the automatic rain gauge at Manilla, published on the internet by the Bureau of Meteorology as Station 55031. All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to August 2016

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“August 2016 cool and wet”

Trends to August 2016

August raw anomaly data (orange)

August 2016 was marked by low mean daily maximum temperature and high total rainfall. On the first graph the data point is in the cold wet “flooding rains” corner. However, the other five variables are close to normal.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Fully-smoothed data is now available for the summer of 2015-16. Most variables became static in that season, but cloudiness increased, dew point fell, and subsoil temperature rose.
Most variables were close to normal: rainfall, cloudiness, daily temperature range and subsoil temperature. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures were rather high, while dew point was low. [Low dew point anomalies near the line (y = -x – 3) rather than (y = -x) may be due to an instrument error, since corrected.]

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

July 2016 had a record warm night

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by
Photo of a pond at sunset

A neighbour’s dam

The second cloudiest month of this century brought the warmest July night.
There were two very warm spells in the trace of weekly average temperature. Both were due mainly to warm nights. The second spell, coming in the third week, reached nearly six degrees above normal. On the morning of Saturday the 23rd, the minimum reading on the screen thermometer, 14.4°, was the highest July minimum in the record from 1999.
Up to the 25th, the weather was changeable, with some days overcast and rainy, and others fine and sunny. A very warm sunny day on the 17th, following a frost, had the unusually wide daily temperature range of 21.9°. From the 25th, the weather settled to what is normal for July. In the whole month, there were sixteen frosts, which is normal.
The highest rainfall reading was only 11.4 mm. Ten days had rainfall recorded, but three of these had 0.2 mm, on days when rain was not seen.

Weather log for July 2016

Comparing July months

The mean daily maximum temperature (16.9°) was normal. The mean daily minimum temperature (4.0°) was two degrees above normal, making the average temperature (10.5°) one degree above normal. Similarly, the subsoil temperature (14.7°) was one degree above normal.
The daily temperature range, normally 15.0°, was 12.9°, not quite as narrow as in 2010 (12.3°). The early morning dew point was normal. At 2.2°, it was so close the the daily minimum temperature (4.0°) that fogs were to be expected.
The month was extraordinarily cloudy. Cloud cover is assessed by the number of octas (eighths) of the sky seen to be covered by cloud at 9 am. I compare cloudiness of months by the percentage of “cloudy mornings”: those when I see more than four octas of cloud. This month, with 21 cloudy mornings, had 68%. July normally has only 35%. The only month in this century with a higher value was June 2013, with 73%.
The monthly rainfall total of 32.4 mm is below the average (41 mm), in the 47th percentile. The greatest rainfall “shortage” is now in the 48-month total (2221 mm) which is in the 14th percentile. Both Greenhatch Creek and Rushes Creek are just flowing.

Climate for July 2016.

Data. Rainfall figures for this month are from the automatic rain gauge at Manilla, published on the internet by the Bureau of Meteorology as Station 55031. All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.