Warm, dry October 2019

White box tree

My old E. albens.

The first week was 5 deg warmer than average, and the fourth and fifth weeks were also warm. The 7th of the month, at 37°, was the second hottest October day in this century, then the night of the 25th, at 21.3°, was the warmest October night.
Most days were sunny. Rain was recorded on the 12th (16.6 mm) and the 17th (4.4 mm).

October 2019 weather log

Comparing October months

This was the second-warmest October of the new century by all three temperature measures: daily max: 29.7°; daily mean: 21.2°; and daily min: 12.7°. The warmest had been October 2015, with 30.2°, 21.7°, and 13.1°.
It was a dry month but, by various measures, not as dry as in 2013 or 2014.
The rainfall total of 21.0 mm is in the 16th percentile, and the 20th driest on record.

October climate

Drought

I will report separately on the on-going drought that continues to break low-rainfall records at durations of 15-months and longer.


Data. A Bureau of Meteorology automatic rain gauge operates in the museum yard. From 17 March 2017, 9 am daily readings are published as Manilla Museum, Station 55312.  These reports use that rainfall data when it is available. Recording resumed on 20 July 2019.
My estimates of early morning dew point have drifted anomalously low. From August 2019, I use data from the Tamworth Airport published graphs.
All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

Very warm nights in March 2019

Photo of dead public lawn

Our Nature Strip

While there were no very high or low temperatures, weekly mean temperatures were high. Warm spells through the second and fourth week-ends were about four degrees high.
There were nine rain days (twice the usual number for March), but none had more than 5 mm until the 30th. A rain front early that morning brought 39 mm.

Weather log for March 2019

Comparing March months

This month was very warm. It was like March in 2018 and 2016, but the nights were warmer. Both the mean minimum temperature (17.9°) and the monthly mean temperature (24.9°) were record high values for March in the 21st century.
It was not a dry month: values of all the moisture indicators were near normal. The (estimated) rainfall of 54.9 mm is very close to the long-term average of 53.4 mm. However, March rainfall at Manilla is strongly skewed, having many values just below the average and just a few values up to 240 mm above it. The median March rainfall is much lower: only 39 mm. This month’s total of 54.9 mm is at the 60th percentile: it is higher than 60% of all historic March rainfall values.

The last 7 March months

Drought

The on-going drought is reported in three posts, with three different kinds of graph:

  • a line graph shows rainfall status in the last two months, with duration on the x-axis and severity on the y-axis;
  • a contour graph shows 25 months sequentially on the x-axis, duration on the y-axis and severity by tints;
  • a duration graph shows how shortages began and ended in the last 20 years, with time on the x-axis and duration on the y-axis.

 


Data. A Bureau of Meteorology automatic rain gauge operates in the museum yard. From 17 March 2017, 9 am daily readings are published as Manilla Museum, Station 55312.  These reports use that rainfall data when it is available.  Since no 9 am readings have been recorded since August, I have substituted my non-standard gauge readings for all days.
All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

Autumn 2018 dry and very warm

Gum nuts and blossoms

Gumnut and Gum-Blossum

The air became four degrees warmer than normal by day and by night in mid-March and continued warm until late in April. As normal temperatures returned the climate became dry, with no rain for thirty-nine days.

Graphical weather log for autumn 2018

Both autumn 2016 and autumn 2018 had record high average temperatures. This season had the highest mean daily maximum (27.7°), but 2016 had the highest mean daily minimum (12.1°). In the combined average, 2016, with 19.9°, was warmer than 2018, with 19.7°.

All four indicators of moisture (rainfall, dew point, cloud, and daily temperature range) agree in showing this autumn to be drier than last autumn, and even than the three autumns before that.
The total rainfall of 45 mm was the 12th driest on record, but it was not the driest in the 21st century. Similarly dry autumns occurred in 2002 (60 mm), 2005 (35 mm), 2006 (53 mm), and 2008 (37 mm). That is about twice as many as history would suggest.

Climate for autumn 2018


Data. A Bureau of Meteorology automatic rain gauge operates in the museum yard. From 17 March 2017, 9 am daily readings are published as Manilla Museum, Station 55312.  These reports use that rainfall data when it is available. During this autumn season 30 daily readings were missed, and I replaced them with my own readings.

All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

April 2018 very warm and sunny

Gum tree

Schoolyard Lemon-scented Gum

Warm spells several degrees above normal persisted until late in the month. Then normal temperature returned.
While no day went over 35°, thirteen days went over 30°, which was a record. ANZAC Day, at 27.3°, was 3° warmer than usual. That was much the same as last year, but not nearly as warm as in 2002 (28.7°).
A record 25 nights were warmer than 10°. There were no frosts, the coldest night (the 29th) being 5.2°.
There were only three rain days, with the highest reading of 10.2 mm on the 20th. The number of cloudless mornings (16) was a new record, beating April 2001 (15).

Weather log for April 2018

Comparing April months

As in March, so in April, this very warm dry month matched the same month in 2016. The three highest mean temperatures for April months were: in 2018, 20.7°; in 2005, 20.6°; and in 2016, 20.5°. For mean daily maximum temperatures, however, 2005 was the warmest, at 29.5°. April 2018 claims the record highest mean minimum temperature of 12.5°, beating April 2014, which had 12.2°.
The rainfall total of 17.8 mm was at the 31st percentile, well below the average (40 mm). In 2018, rainfall has been below normal in January, March and April. However, serious rainfall shortages below the 10th percentile are still seen only in the medium term: the 60-month total of 2780 mm is at the 8th percentile, and the 72-month total of 3370 mm is at the 6th percentile.

Climate in April months


Data. A Bureau of Meteorology automatic rain gauge operates in the museum yard. From 17 March 2017, 9 am daily readings are published as Manilla Museum, Station 55312.  These reports use that rainfall data when it is available.  The gauge, which had last reported on 24 September 2017, came on line again on the 16th of March.

All data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

March 2018 very warm indeed

Acacia salicina

Young Cooba

Eight days went over 35° this March, beaten only by nine days in March 2016. The 19th (38.6°) was the fifth hottest March day of the new century. Weekly mean temperatures rose to 4.6° above normal by the 18th, and remained almost as high beyond the end of the month.
There were seven rain days, with the highest reading of 16.5 mm (est.) coming early in the month.

Weather log for March 2018

Comparing March months

Average temperatures this month very nearly match those of the record-breaking March 2016. They are only 0.1° lower! Moisture variables are also similar: rather dry, in stark contrast to the sogginess of March 2017.

The rainfall total of 25.6 mm (est.) was at the 40th percentile, well below the average (53 mm). Serious rainfall shortages are seen only in the medium term: the 60-month total of 2770 mm (8th percentile) and the 72-month total of 3410 mm (9th percentile).

Climate in March months


Data. A Bureau of Meteorology automatic rain gauge operates in the museum yard. From 17 March 2017, 9 am daily readings are published as Manilla Museum, Station 55312.  These reports use that rainfall data when it is available.  The gauge, which had last reported on 24 September 2017, came on line again on the 16th of March. However, not all later days have readings reported.

All data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.