Tag Archives: cool

3-year trends to April 2020

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

April, like March, continued cool

April raw anomaly data (orange)

Current raw anomaly values for April appeared very little changed from those of March. However, as noted below, many values are estimates only.

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes), which had been very high until January, remained near -1.5°.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): stayed just below normal.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): stayed near normal.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left) stayed near normal.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): fell from very high to high.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): remained normal.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right) stayed near -1.5°.

 Fully smoothed data values (red) 

The fully-smoothed daily maximum temperature anomaly for October 2019 again broke the 21st century record, reaching a value of 2.21° above normal. The daily minimum anomaly also rose, but the subsoil anomaly fell. Despite the high and increasing air temperatures, smoothed moisture anomalies for October 2019 did not move further towards drought.

[Note.
Due to illness, 45 days were missed for some Manilla values for the whole of April 2020. No values were noted for cloud or soil temperature; daily maximum and minimum air temperatures were estimated by regression on values from Tamworth Airport Automatic Weather Service.]

Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

Smoothing Continue reading →

March 2020: cool, moist

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by

Weather log for March 2020

[Note.
Due to illness, 45 days were missed for some Manilla values, beginning in March (23/3/20). No values were noted for cloud or soil temperature; daily maximum and minimum air temperatures were estimated by regression on values from Tamworth Airport Automatic Weather Service.]

March weekly mean temperatures were near normal, but cooler in the second week.
Cloudy skies, with high dew points and rain came early and late in the month. There were nine rain days, with the highest reading of 19.0 mm on the 26th.

Comparing March months

The mean monthly temperature, at 21.8°, was rather low: cooler than in the last six March months. Days, at 28.6°, were third coolest for March in the new century, only March of 2001 and 2003 having cooler days.
Most moisture values were rather higher than in March of 2018 or 2019. The rainfall total of 53.2 mm was at the 60th percentile for March (and near the average (53 mm)).

Drought

I will report separately on the on-going drought.

Data. A Bureau of Meteorology automatic rain gauge operates in the museum yard. From 17 March 2017, 9 am daily readings are published as Manilla Museum, Station 55312.  These reports use that rainfall data when it is available. Recording resumed on 20 July 2019. Unfortunately, the gauge failed during February (25/02/2020 ). Until its repair on 11/3/20, I used my own gauge.
My estimates of early morning dew point have drifted anomalously low. From August 2019, I use data from the Tamworth Airport published graphs.
All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to March 2020

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

March continued cool

March raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes), which had been very high until January, remained below -1.5°.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): fell to just below normal.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): was still near normal.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left) fell from plus 100 mm/month to normal.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): remained high.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): returned to normal.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right) returned from -3.0° to -1.5°.

 Fully smoothed data values (red) 

Most smoothed anomaly values for September 2019 moved a little further towards drought. Smoothed daily maximum temperature anomaly reached a new 21st century record of +2.07° above normal in September, with a higher record to be expected in October or later.

[Note.
Due to illness, 45 days were missed for some Manilla values, beginning from 23/3/20. No values were noted for cloud or soil temperature; daily maximum and minimum air temperatures were estimated by regression on values from Tamworth Airport Automatic Weather Service.]

Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

Smoothing Continue reading →

Cool Dry April 2017

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by
Pavonia blooms on a roadside

Roadside Pavonia

April began with cool days and nights, about three degrees below normal. However, the weather did not get any cooler until the last few days. In particular, ANZAC Day, at 27.4°, was the warmest day of the month – but that was more than a degree cooler than ANZAC Day 2002. (The average daily maximum temperature for ANZAC Day (from 2000) is 24.3°. The hottest was 28.7° (2002) and the coldest 16.8° (2012).)

Soaking rain of 10.6 mm, registered on the 26th, came with a remarkably warm night of 16.6°. Coming so late in autumn, this was 7.9° above normal, breaking the record of 7.1° above normal for an April night (20/04/06).
Further rain on the 27th (11.2 mm) fell as showers on a very cold day of 14.3°, that was 9.8° below normal. The final three nights were cold. The 30th, at 4.3°, was the coldest night of the month, but it was far from frosty.

Weather log for April 2017

Comparing April months

This month was cool, with a mean temperature of 17.0°, but not nearly as cool as April in 2008 (15.8°), 2006 (16.6°), or 1999 (15.6°). It was also rather low in moisture, with only 24 mm of rain, only 33% cloudy mornings, a daily temperature range as wide as 15.6°, and an early morning dew point of only 6.3°. What is unusual is the combination of low temperature values and low moisture values. Manilla’s climate generally swings between high temperature with low moisture (“droughts”) and low temperature with high moisture (“flooding rains”), as the poet said. (See these graphs.)
The total rainfall of 24.0 mm was at the 40th percentile, below the April average of 40 mm. There are no serious shortages of rainfall for groups of months to this date.

Climate for April 2017.

Data. A Bureau of Meteorology automatic rain gauge operates in the museum yard. From 17 March 2017, 9 am daily readings are published as Manilla Museum, Station 55312.  These reports use that rainfall data when it is available. All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

Cool spring 2016

Posted in Manilla NSW, Season Weather by
Photo of a wildflower

Nodding Chocolate Lilies

Through September, days were very cool, making for a narrow daily temperature range. Then, through October, both days and nights were very cool. In November, days and nights were nearer to normal but, in contrast to September, the daily temperature range was wide. The dew point failed to rise during the season, making the air very dry in November.
Rain fell frequently up to the middle of November, then ceased. There were 24 rain days, when there are normally 19 in spring. The highest reading was 28.8 mm on the 14th of September. The season total of 216.4 mm was rather high, in the 77th percentile.

Graphical log for spring 2016
All temperature measures were below normal by 1.5° to 2.0°. Only spring of 2001 had low values like that but in 2010 the mean daily maximum (only) was 2.5° below normal.
Measures of moisture were near normal, with cloud, rainfall, and daily temperature range on the moist side, and dew point on the dry side.

Climate for spring 2016

Data. Rainfall figures for this season began from the automatic rain gauge at Manilla, published on the internet by the Bureau of Meteorology as Station 55031. That gauge ceased reporting on the 8th of October, and later readings are from my non-standard gauge. All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.