3-year trends to March 2020

March continued cool

March raw anomaly data (orange)


Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes), which had been very high until January, remained below -1.5°.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): fell to just below normal.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): was still near normal.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left) fell from plus 100 mm/month to normal.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): remained high.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): returned to normal.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right) returned from -3.0° to -1.5°.

 Fully smoothed data values (red) 

Most smoothed anomaly values for September 2019 moved a little further towards drought. Smoothed daily maximum temperature anomaly reached a new 21st century record of +2.07° above normal in September, with a higher record to be expected in October or later.

Due to illness, 45 days were missed for some Manilla values, beginning from 23/3/20. No values were noted for cloud or soil temperature; daily maximum and minimum air temperatures were estimated by regression on values from Tamworth Airport Automatic Weather Service.]


January data points are marked by squares.


Smoothing uses Gaussian functions.
For fully smoothed data the function has a Standard Deviation of 2.5 months, it spans 13 monthly data points, and has a half-width of 6 months, which suppresses cycles shorter than 12 months. For partly smoothed data, the span of the function is reduced to 11 months, 9 months and so on.

Fully smoothed data points are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange.

Limiting values

Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s