Tag Archives: rainfall shortage

Still hot and dry in November 2014

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by
Silky oak trees in full bloom

November Silky Oaks

Although the month began near normal, with two rain days, the weather became hot and dry again. Saturday the 22nd reached 41.4°, to be the second hottest November day on this 15-year record.
There were two heat waves, with the average weekly temperature above normal by 6.1° on the 12th and by 7.0° on Sunday the 23rd. (November of 2009 had a worse heat wave, being above normal by 9.5°, and reaching 31.3°: the hottest week in any month.)
Most nights this month were warm, with low dew points. By contrast, many days were cloudy.

 Weather log November 2014

Comparing November months

On average, the month was not quite as hot as November 2009, the hottest this century. The air was again very dry, with an early morning dew point of 7.1°, a little higher than the lowest value (5.7°) recorded for November last year.
Following only three years after the wettest November on the 130-year record (242.9 mm), the total rainfall of only 24 mm was in the 15th percentile. That is, such low November rainfalls happen about one year in seven. However, the time since a lower November rainfall (15 mm in November 1990) is thirteen years: the longest gap ever.
For the third month in a row, little changed in rainfall totals for periods of more than one month. There is no longer a serious shortage in the 6-month total (now in the 10th percentile) but there are now serious shortages in the totals for 5 months (9th percentile), 9 months (8th percentile), 15 months (6th percentile), 18 months (6th percentile), and 30 months (9th percentile). There is one severe shortage: the total for 12 months (393 mm) is in the 4th percentile.

Climate fro November 2014

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash  Street, Manilla.

October 2014 hot and dry

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by
Blooms of Melia azedarach

Fragrant white cedar blooms

The month began with a warm spell, which was followed by a cool spell about the 15th. It ended with a long hot spell, 4.8 degrees above normal, including the hottest October day this century (38.1°) on the 26th. As usual, there were no frosts.

Of three rain days (usually seven), only the 14th had much rain: 26.4 mm, with heavy showers.
Half the mornings had no cloud at all, and nine days had very wide temperature ranges, greater than 20°.

Weather log October 2014

 Comparing October months

This was the hottest October month at Manilla in this 16-year record. Maximum, mean and minimum temperatures were all highest values, but the maximum was no higher than in October 2007. The subsoil temperature returned to a value below normal.
As indicators of low moisture, the daily temperature range was very high and cloudiness and dew point were very low, as in the last two October months. Even less cloud had been seen in 2002 and 2004.
Recently, lower rainfall occurred in October 2002 (15.0 mm), 2012 (12.6 mm), and 2013 (15.0 mm). However, this month’s total of 27.0 mm is well below the October average of 58 mm, in the 21st percentile. Since last month, little has changed in rainfall totals for periods of more than one month. There is still a serious shortage in the 6-month total (8th percentile) but not now in the 9-month total (10th percentile). The 15-month total has advanced to severe (4th percentile), while the 18-month total has retreated to serious (5th percentile). A serious shortage has also appeared in the 30-month total (8th percentile).

Climate October 2014  

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash  Street, Manilla.

September 2014 cool and dry

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by
Acacia decora hedge

A hedge of western golden wattle

The daily weather log

Two 5-day cool spells began on the 2nd and the 17th. Days and nights were both three or four degrees cooler than normal. At the same time, the air was very dry: a new lowest September dew point of minus 8.1° came on the 19th.
At other times, temperatures were near normal. There were four frosts (normally three). There were four rain days, which is normal.
The first thirty-degree day since mid-winter came on the 30th. At Manilla, it often comes near the spring equinox (September 22nd). In the 21st century, the first thirty-degree day came as early as August 23rd in 2009 and as late as November 9th in 2010.

Weather log September 2014.

 Comparing September months

Last September had been the warmest in this century. While not cold like September 2004, this month was half a degree cooler than normal. Like September in 2003, 2007, and 2012, it was both cool and dry. By contrast, the cool Septembers of 2010 and 2011 were wet, affected by La Nina.
Cloudiness and daily temperature range were near normal, but the mean dew point (1.4°) was not much higher than the extreme low value (0.6°) set last year.
The total rainfall of 18.8 mm is in the 26th percentile, well below the September average of 41 mm. Totals for periods of more than one month now have serious shortages for six months (7th percentile), nine months (7th percentile), and fifteen months (5th percentile), and a severe shortage for eighteen months (4th percentile).

The current drought report (6/10/2014) of the Bureau of Meteorology shows some serious and severe rainfall deficiencies in the area. Ten-month deficiencies extend west to Manilla from the Northern Tablelands, and there are 24-month rainfall deficiencies near Manilla and widespread around Walgett, 300 km to the north-west.

Climate September 2014.  

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash  Street, Manilla.

Extremely Arid October 2013

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by

October’s climate was even more desert-like than this September or October last year. Afternoon humidity (normally 30%) was only 13.1%, which is the lowest value in ANY month in the last eight years. The early morning dew point of 0.5° was the lowest October value this century, and 7.8° below normal, a record anomaly value for any month. This very dry air often came with strong winds. Most of north-west NSW was affected.

The daily weather logWeather log October 2013.

The second of two warm spells brought weekly temperatures three degrees above normal. Each warm spell ended with a night above 20°. Three mornings from the 25th were exceptionally dry, having dew points of minus 7.2°, minus 8.0°, and minus 7.6°. (The record: minus 9.3° on 17/5/11.)
There were three rain days: the 2nd with 13.8 mm, and the 18th and 30th with 0.6 mm each.

Comparing October monthsClimate October 2013.

October’s days were not quite as warm as in 2007. Dryness was marked by low rainfall, little cloud, and wide daily temperature range, but most remarkably by the record low dew point and relative humidity.
At 21.0°, the subsoil was warmer than in any other October month. It was 1.6° above normal.
The total rainfall of 15.0 mm was in only the 12th percentile, far below the average of 58 mm. The three and four month rainfall totals (41 mm; 71 mm) are now severe shortages, in the 3rd and 4th percentiles.

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.