Tag Archives: Gaussian smoothing

3-year trends to June 2012

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at ManillaTrends to June 2012.

June 2012 anomalies show a return to normalcy for rainfall and maximum temperature. Three moisture-related measures returned to the values of last winter: rather high cloudiness, rather low daily temperature range, and (strangely) rather low Dew Point. Daily min temp returned to the high positive anomaly last seen in 2010.
The subsoil became extraordinarily warm. (Why?)

Fully-smoothed data (in red) show that the 13-year record high monthly rainfall anomaly of November 2011 (+43.8 mm) was not beaten in December, as had seemed likely. The smoothed maximum temperature of December 2011 equalled the record cool anomaly of -1.96 degrees set in October 2010.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

In 2012, Autumn Weather Normal Again

Posted in Manilla NSW, Season Weather by

Weather log autumn 2012.
After the cold, wet summer, autumn weather was normal, like last year. Days were warm in early April, and nights cold in mid-May. Rain was rather light: the four days with more than 10 mm of rain came in late April.
Average air temperatures were close to normal, but the early morning Dew Point was 2.1 degrees down, showing very dry air, as in autumn 2008. The subsoil was very warm.
While the percentage of mornings with more than 4/8 cloud (39%) was lower than in the last two autumns, it is still nearly twice that of autumns in the previous decade, which averaged just 25%.
Rain fell on 16 days (normally 12), but the total rainfall of 87.4 mm is only on the 35th percentile for autumn. Like autumns in 2009 and 2010, it is about 45 mm below the average (133 mm). Nevertheless, an enormous amount of rain fell in spring, summer, and autumn taken together: 852 mm! Only 1956 and 1890 had more rain in those three seasons: 1012 mm and 939 mm.Climate autumn 2012

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to May 2012

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at ManillaTrends to May 2012.

New raw data for May 2012 anomalies show a dry climate, quite unlike the extremely wet and very cold summer. Daily max temp was slightly above normal and rainfall well below normal. The Dew Point was extremely low, daily min temp very low, and temperature range very wide. Subsoil temperature remained high: for five months it has been two degrees warmer than might be expected from the daily maximum air temperature.

Spring (SON) 2011 anomalies (now fully smoothed) changed as follows:
Max temp fell rapidly from one degree below normal;
Rainfall began high and increased very rapidly;
Cloudiness remained rather high;
Dew Point was low, but rose slightly;
Temp range and Min temp were both rather low and decreasing;
Subsoil temp was normal.

A new 13-year record high monthly rainfall anomaly of +43.8 mm came in November. This beats the record set the previous month by 5 mm, but it may be beaten the following month.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to April 2012

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“April 2012 like winter 2011”Trends to April 2012.

New raw data for April 2012 anomalies are quite similar to the smoothed values for winter 2011 for all variables but one: subsoil temperature is very high, as it has not been since March 2007.
As in winter 2011, most anomalies are near zero, but skies are very cloudy and, paradoxically, Dew Points are very low.

Record rainfall anomaly

Fully-smoothed data points for October 2011 include a new 13-year record high monthly rainfall anomaly of +38.6 mm (first graph). This beats the record set the previous month by 10 mm, but it will be beaten the following month by a similar margin. Smoothed rainfall anomalies in the last months of 2011 will be well over twice as high as those in the last months of 2010.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to March 2012

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Retreat from cold wet extreme”Trends to March 2012.

New raw data for March 2012 anomalies show a retreat from low extremes towards normal for maximum and minimum temperatures, and temperature range. Rainfall (perhaps temporarily) moved to negative to positive, and subsoil temperature from negative to positive. Cloudiness remained very high, and Dew Point very low.

Fully-smoothed data points for September 2011 include a new 13-year record high monthly rainfall anomaly of +28.6 mm (first graph). This beats the record of +20.0 mm set in November 2005. The new record is sure to be beaten by October and November 2011 when their values can be smoothed.

Although the smoothed value for maximum temperature anomaly in September 2011 was not very low, the smoothed value for December 2011 may reach a record low.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.