Tag Archives: climate

3-year trends to August 2010

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Summer retreated from drought”

Trends to August 2010.

Manilla’s recent climate continues to be marked mainly by cloudier skies and a narrower daily temperature range than in the 12-year averages.
In the current plots we see final smoothed trends for summer (DJF) of 2009-10.

Daily maximum temperature anomaly is shown on the x-axis of each plot. The minimum value in Feb 2008 (-1.61) and maximum value in Nov 2009 (+1.35) are also the extremes (in blue) of the smoothed data set. In summer 2009-10 the smoothed temperature anomaly fell much faster than it had risen in the previous winter and spring. During autumn the max temp anomaly was near zero, and the raw value for August is so low (cold) the scale has had to be extended.

Monthly total rainfall anomaly is on the y-axis (inverted) of the first graph. It showed a very mild drought throughout the last winter, spring, and summer. Autumn seems to have been less droughty, much like the previous autumn, but with the opposite trend. Recently, July 2010 was very wet, but August rainfall was normal.

The anomaly of per cent cloudy mornings fell during winter 2009 as the maximum temperature anomaly rose. During summer 2009-10 it rose again as the maximum temperature anomaly fell. However, for a given maximum temperature anomaly the cloudiness anomaly was now more positive (it was cloudier). Since the end of summer, skies have been extremely cloudy

On the graph for early morning dew point anomaly, the final year’s data plots like that of the cloudiness graph. However, dew point anomalies were not so positive: in winter and spring 2009 they were quite strongly negative. By autumn 2010, dew points seem normal, and recent values are high (humid climate).

For daily temperature range anomaly, again, the last year’s pattern on this graph is like that on the previous two graphs. In this case, values low on the graph are negative anomalies, representing narrow daily temperature ranges. For a given maximum temperature anomaly, the anomaly of daily temperature range was lower during the summer than it had been the previous winter.

(Note on the “Macquarie Island” label. This August  Manilla’s anomalously low maximum temperature (16.8°) is actually much higher than that of Macquarie Island (5.0°), and the anomalously narrow daily temperature range (11.9°) is still much wider than that of Macquarie Island (3.5°).)

In the case of daily minimum temperature anomaly, summer 2010 began with a maximal value, and the value stayed high through the season. Values may have been lower in autumn, then they seem to have risen even higher (very warm nights).

World-wide low temperature

At Manilla, in early 2008  there were record low values of daily minimum temperature, daily maximum temperature and subsoil temperature. These did NOT come with high rainfall and high dew point as would occur in a “flooding rains” peak of the quasi-biennial oscillation. They match low temperature at that time world-wide.

Subsoil temperature anomalies have remained close to zero for 17 months, despite big changes in the anomalies of other temperatures.

Note:
Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Cool days in August 2010

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by

The daily weather logWeather log August 2010 Manilla

August had no extremes. Only four days exceeded 20° (usually thirteen days), and only ten nights were frosty (usually fifteen). The subsoil temperature failed to rise during the month, ending at 13.5°, which is 1.0° cooler than normal.

Rain fell on 13 days, an August record for the decade, but the highest reading was only 10 mm.

Comparing August monthsClimate August 2010 Manilla

The mean daily maximum temperature (26.5°) was the lowest for November on this 12-year record. The mean daily temperature range (12.4°) was (with November 2008) a record low value.

Mean subsoil temperature (20.4°) was the lowest since November 1999. The month ended with subsoil temperature (then 22.2°) trailing only 10 days later than its usual date. It had begun the month 22 days late.
There were more cloudy mornings (53%) than in any November on this record.
The rainfall of 105.4 mm is in the 84th percentile for November, far above the long-term average of 67 mm. Totals for groups of months up to 15 months are now all above the median, as is the thirty-year total.

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to July 2010

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Extraordinarily moist”

Trends to July 2010.

The July 2010 raw data, (orange) shows an extraordinarily moist month. Anomaly values of rainfall, cloudy days, Dew Point, and temperature range are so extreme that the graph margins have had to be moved. The Minimum temperature anomaly is also extraordinarily high, but this result is not so clearly linked to moisture.
Extreme moisture is usually associated with low maximum daily temperatures, in the “Flooding Rains” corner of the graphs, but this July the maximum temperature is not extreme, but normal.

Note:
Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

July 2010 Rain Twice Average

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by

The daily weather logWeather log July 2010 Manilla

July began cold. The 2nd, with a maximum temperature of 9.1°, was the coldest July day in the record from 1999. The only two colder days were: 8/06/07 (8.8°), and 20/06/07 (8.3°).

Two warm spells followed, marked mainly by nights that were very warm for mid-winter. The minimum on the 12th (11.8°) was 10° above normal, and that on the 31st (13.5°) was 11.3° above normal. Colder nights included twelve mild frosts, the fewest on record.
There were 13 rain days spread through the month. The reading of 17.2 mm on the 29th was topped by 34.2 mm on the 31st.

“Normal Temperature”

Each Manilla monthly weather graph has dashed curves to show the temperatures that are normal for each day of the year. They are harmonic curves matching 10-year averages from March 1999. On this July graph, the lowest values are marked with a double “X”. Winter cold is due to lack of heat from the sun, which yields least heat on the 21st of June (the winter solstice). On that day the sun is lowest and shines the shortest time. However, it takes many days for the air to cool down. On average, the coldest day in Manilla comes 17 days later (July 8th) and the coldest night 22 days later (July 13th). Manilla’s coldest day and night follow the solstice with an unusually short lag time. (See Wikipedia: “Seasonal lag”.)

See the monthly weather report for January 2010 for the highest normal temperatures of the year. These relationships are shown on a graph here.

Comparing July monthsClimate July 2010 Manilla

Due to cloudy nights, the mean daily minimum temperature (4.6°) was by far the highest in the 12-year record for July, and 2.4° above the average. Because the mean maximum temperature was normal (16.9°), the mean average temperature was also high (10.8°). The mean daily temperature range (12.3°) was the narrowest in the July record.

Very high humidity was shown by a mean early morning Dew Point of 4.6°, higher than any since July 1999 (5.7°). The percentage of cloudy mornings (61%) was the highest, not only for July months, but for any month in this record. Nineteen mornings were completely overcast.
The rainfall of 79.8 mm is in the 90th percentile for July: only 12 July months have been wetter. It is close to double the long-term average of 41 mm. As a result, total rainfalls for the last two months and three months are now above the median. No serious rainfall shortages remain. The worst shortages are far from serious: the 15-month and the 9-year totals are both in the 14th percentile.

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to June 2010

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Back from a very mild drought.”

Trends to June 2010

Raw data for June 2010 (orange) are mainly near the smoothed values for January 2009, 17 months earlier. As an exception, the minimum temperature anomaly was very high, making the daily temperature range very low.

The last fully-smoothed data point, December 2009 (red), had hot days with a slightly lower daily maximum temperature anomaly than the record set the month before. Rainfall anomaly during this “drought” peak was not very low at all (-16 mm). Other variables for November 2009 were near normal, except daily minimum temperature anomaly, which was a record high value of +1.31 degrees.

Note:
Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.