Tag Archives: climate

Dry July 2014

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by

The daily weather log

Photo of sunlit house interior

July sun heats the house

Normal sunny July weather was broken by two rainy days in mid-month and another “rainy” day later. With the first rain there was a very warm night of 11.0°, at the time when nights are usually at their coldest (1.8°).
Late in the month days and nights were two degrees warmer than usual.Weather log July 2014

 Comparing July months

Average temperatures were normal, but the rainfall was low and the humidity (Dew Point) was very low. Recent July months have been quite different. Last July was very warm, July 2012 was very wet (ninth wettest), and July 2010 was very cloudy and wet, with warm nights. This month was not as dry as July 2011, which was not as dry as July in the drought year: 2002.
The total rainfall of 11.4 mm is in the 15th percentile. Taking rainfall totals for more than one month, the 4-month total of 83 mm is now a serious shortage (6th percentile). There are also serious shortages in the totals for 12 months (6th percentile), 15 months (8th percentile), and 18 months (9th percentile), Other totals have higher percentile values, and most totals for 36 months or more are above normal. In the very long term, the 30-year rainfall total (19,314 mm) has just fallen below the median for the first time since August 2010.
(Note. Figures for 30-year totals begin in 1914. The lowest 30-year total rainfall was 18,026 mm (601 mm per year) in November 1940; the highest was 21,031 mm (701 mm per year) in December 1978.)Climate July 2014

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

Manilla in Global Warming Context: II

Posted in 21st-century climate, Climate Change, Global context, Manilla NSW, World Climate by

Logs of smoothed world and local temperatures. (25/7/14)

This post updates a similar post that was based on data available in July 2011. I now have data from three more years.

World surface air temperature

The blue line shows how the air has warmed and cooled during the 21st century. It is based on GISS, which is one of three century-long records that estimate the surface air temperature of the whole earth. The other two are HadCRUT and NCDC.
Monthly values of GISS vary wildly, and I have smoothed them with a 37-month moving average. Ole Humlum uses 37-month smoothing in many graphs on his website.

The 37-month smoothing allows plotting only up to 18 months ago, in December 2012. As you see, the GISS air temperature anomaly (See Note 1.), when smoothed in this way, moves rather steadily in one direction for years at a time.

The world’s surface air warmed rapidly from early 2000 to late 2002, then warmed slowly to a peak in early 2006. This is the warmest the world surface air has been in hundreds of years. After that peak, the air cooled rapidly by two-thirtieths of a degree to a trough in late 2007. It warmed again slowly to a lower peak in early 2010, steadied for a year, then fell to a trough in January 2012 that was like the previous trough. The air warmed rapidly through 2012. Continue reading →

3-year trends to June 2014

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Climate normal for now”

Trends to June 2014

 June data (orange)

Raw anomaly values for June 2014 have nothing in common with the droughty conditions at the end of 2013. Daily maximum temperature and rainfall (top left graph) are both normal. A return to a moist climate, like that in spring 2011, shows as cloudy skies (top right), high dew point (mid left), and narrow temperature range (mid right). Daily minimum temperature (lower left) has moved independently to a high value (that is, very warm nights). Only subsoil temperature (lower right) has jumped back to warm 2013 values, after a period of normalcy.

Fully smoothed data (red)

December 2013 is now the latest fully-smoothed data point. It seems to mark the point of lowest rainfall and dew point anomalies in recent months. In other variables (except daily minimum temperature) December continued a retreat from recent extreme (drought) values.

Note:
Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999. They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 

June 2014: normal weather

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by

The daily weather log

Vintage machinery fair

Oil Engine’s Day Out

In four short  rainy spells, nights were very warm and days cool. Otherwise, the weather was normal but rather cloudy. There were eight rain days (normally six). The wettest had 17 mm, which is normal. Only nine mornings were frosty, when normally there are thirteen.

Weather log June 2014

Comparing June months

Most average values were near normal for June. However, the nights were warm, the daily temperature range narrow, and the skies cloudy. The month was not extremely wet and cloudy like June last year.
The total rainfall of 40.2 mm is in the 55th percentile, close to the average.. Taking rainfall totals for more than one month, only the 12-month and 15-month totals are serious shortages (7th percentile). The 3-month total (71 mm) is in the 12th percentile. Other totals have higher percentile values, and most totals for 36 months or more are above normal.

Climate June 2014

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

Profile of an Extreme Drought

Posted in 21st-century climate, Climate events, Manilla NSW by

Rainfall vs Maximum temperature, 2002 droughtAt Manilla, NSW, there was a drought in 2002 that was extreme, but brief. There have been no other extreme droughts at Manilla in the 21st century. The current drought is not as bad (yet).
The first graph shows a profile of the 2002 drought. Low rainfall is at the top, and hot days are on the right. Droughts, with low rainfall and hot days, will be near the top right corner. Normal climate is marked by a rectangle (coloured aqua (aqua)) in the middle.
The climate in these months moved into drought and out of it. January 2001 (Start) had perfectly normal climate with no drought, and so did February 2003 (Finish). Rainfall first became lower than normal after January 2002, and reached a minimum 27 mm below normal in July 2002. Rainfall returned to the normal range by December 2002. Day-time temperature went above the normal range in May 2002, reached a peak 1.3 degrees above normal in September-October 2002, and fell back into the normal range in January 2003. For rainfall lower than normal, the drought lasted ten months: for days hotter than normal, it lasted eight months. In this drought, the time of lowest rainfall came two to three months earlier than the time of hottest days.

(There is more detailed analysis of  the 2002 drought in a post dated September 2004.)

Graphs showing the progress of the drought as rainfall shortages are in the post “The 2002 rainfall shortages at Manilla”.

The loop on the graph shows this drought as a simple event with a beginning, a middle, and an end. Droughts are not usually seen to be so simple. This graph is made using two “tricks”: anomalies and smoothing. You must judge whether you trust them to describe the drought as it happened.

Continue reading →