Tag Archives: climate anomalies

3-year trends to February 2012

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“February 2012 very cold and wet”Trends to February 2012.

Recent partly-smoothed data points generally diverge rapidly from the near-neutral values of winter. February raw anomalies include extremely high rainfall and extremely low daily maximum and minimum temperatures.
Low humidity persists, marked by negative Dew Point anomalies, despite extreme rainfall and cloud cover.

Winter 2011 a time of trend reversal

Fully smoothed data points are now available for Winter 2011. Most variables show stable near-zero anomaly values at a time of trend reversal:
Max temp anomaly (x-axes, all graphs) had been rising since cold October 2010, but peaked in June 2011 while still negative.
Rainfall anomaly, which had reached a minimum just below zero in May, rose quite rapidly during the winter.
Cloudiness varied little around a minimum in July.
Uniquely, Dew Points were very low: the anomaly reached a new record low smoothed value of -1.70 degrees in July. This beat the drought year smoothed value of -1.48 degrees of September and October 2002.
Daily temperature range was slightly low and falling; so was daily minimum temperature. Subsoil temperature was slightly high and falling.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to January 2012.

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Low Dew Points and cold days persist”Trends to January 2012.

Except for humid November 2011, Dew Points at Manilla (Centre left graph) have now shown remarkable aridity for nine months. The July 2011 value for Dew Point anomaly, now fully smoothed, requires the blue line to be moved yet again. It sets a new lower limit for smoothed Dew Point anomaly: minus 1.70 degrees.
Daily maximum temperature (X-axis, all graphs), from a remarkably low value (-4.7) in December, rose only to -3.6 in January.
On the top left graph, the rainfall anomaly returned from a record positive value in November to stongly negative within two months.
Cloudiness went from very high to extreme.
Daily temperature range (centre right graph) and daily minimum temperature (bottom left graph) moved back from the extreme values of December.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to December 2011

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Extreme changes”Trends to December 2011.

Raw values for some anomalies leap from one extreme to another from November to December 2011. Daily maximum temperature (X-axis, all graphs), from a very high value in November, went to such a remarkably low value (-4.7°) that the scale had to be extended by two degrees.
On the top left graph, the rainfall anomaly returned from an extreme positive value to near zero. Taking max temp and rainfall together, November values were part-way towards the climate of an interglacial epoch, while December values were part-way towards that of a glacial epoch. The centre left graph, including Dew Point anomaly, shows the same effect: hot humid (interglacial) jumping to cold arid (glacial).
While daily temperature range (centre right graph) changed little, daily minimum temperature (bottom left graph) moved with maximum temperature from an extreme of hot days and hot nights to a greater extreme of cold days and cold nights. The November and December values mentioned are far beyond the normal limits (dashed blue lines) set by smoothed data points since 1999.

The last fully-smoothed value (June 2011, in red) for Dew Point anomaly  requires the blue line to be moved. It sets a new lower limit for smoothed Dew Point anomaly: -1.58°. Next month may see the July 2011 value set a new record.
Except for humid November 2011, Dew Points at Manilla have now shown remarkable aridity for eight months.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to November 2011

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Bizarre values of climate anomalies”Trends to November 2011.

Most raw values for variables for November 2011 are bizarre. The rainfall anomaly (top left) is so high the scale has had to be extended by four times. The daily maximum temperature anomaly (all graphs, x-axis) has jumped from very low to high. High temperature seldom occurs with high rainfall, but that is thought to be normal in an interglacial climate. Similarly for the high Dew Point (centre left) with high maximum temperature. Two other temperatures jumped up along with maximum temperature: minimum temperature, and subsoil temperature.

Fully-smoothed data points (red) are now available for the autumn months (MAM) of 2011. Each variable showed a steady trend in one direction (but this did not continue through winter).
Max temp increased towards normal.
Rainfall decreased through normal.
Cloudiness was high but decreasing.
Dew Point (humidity) was below normal and falling very rapidly.
Temperature Range was rising towards normal.
Min temp was falling through normal as max temp was rising: a trend from equable towards extreme.
Subsoil temperature increased with maximum temperature.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to October 2011

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Suddenly cold and wet”

Trends to October 2011.

Raw values of some climate variables for October 2011 are like those of October 2010 which, when smoothed, turned out to be a record cold-wet climate peak. Using the two sets of graphs (above and below), one can see:

1. Raw data values (orange) and little-smoothed data values flail around wildly, but the fully-smoothed values (red) near October 2010 (at the left edge of each graph above) trace simpler, more regular curves with points more closely spaced.
2. The approach routes to the two sets of raw data October values were quite different.

Graphs from one year earlier: October 2010.

Trends to October 2010.Maximum temperature anomaly values (x-axis, all graphs)

(a) Maximum temperature partly-smoothed values in 2010 fell from normal to extremely low values taking six months;
(b) The maximum temperature smoothed value for October 2010 became the peak of a cold time: a new record low;
(c) Maximum temperature partly-smoothed values in 2011 fell from normal to extremely low values (LIKE 2010) taking only two months (UNLIKE 2010).

Rainfall anomaly values (y-axis, top left graphs)

(a) Extremely high rainfall in October 2010 followed values that had been rising steadily for eight months;
(b) The smoothed rainfall value for October 2010 became the peak of a wet time: a near-record wet;
(c) Extremely high rainfall in October 2011 (UNLIKE 2010) followed even higher rainfall in September, but normal rainfall just before that.

Cloud anomaly values (y-axis, top right graphs)

(a) Extreme cloudiness in October 2010 followed values that had been rising steadily for ten months;
(b) The smoothed cloudiness value for October 2010 was near the November 2010 peak of a cloudy time: a record for smoothed cloudiness;
(c) Extremely cloudiness in October 2011 (UNLIKE 2010) broke a 10-month trend towards LESS cloudiness.

Dew Point anomaly values (y-axis, centre left graphs)

(a) Very high Dew Points in Aug-Sep-Oct 2010 followed values that had been rising steadily for almost a year;
(b) The smoothed Dew Point value for October 2010 became the peak of a humid time: a near-record;
(c) The Dew Point in October 2011 (UNLIKE 2010) was NOT very high: it was still below normal (i.e. arid) following five months of even lower values.

Temperature Range anomaly values (y-axis, centre right graphs)

(a) Extremely low temperature range in October 2010 followed even lower values;
(b) The smoothed temperature range value for October 2010 was close to the September 2010 record peak low value (-2.80 degrees), more than twice as low as the earlier record set in June 2007 (-1.09 degrees);
(c) The temperature range in October 2011 (UNLIKE 2010) was not very low, but it was much lower than the normal values of the preceding six months.

Min temp anomaly values (y-axis, bottom left graphs)

(a) The min temp in October 2010 was normal, following a full year of very high values;
(b) The smoothed min temp for October 2010 was rather high and falling steadily;
(c) The min temps in September and October 2011 (UNLIKE 2010) were very low, following six months of normal values (UNLIKE 2010).

Subsoil temp anomaly values (y-axis, bottom right graphs)

(a) Extremely low subsoil temp in October 2010 followed a rapid fall in the preceding two months;
(b) The smoothed subsoil temp value for October 2010 was near the peak (November 2010) of a near-record time of low subsoil temp;
(c) As in October 2010, extremely low subsoil temp in October 2011 followed a rapid fall in the preceding two months (LIKE 2010).

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.