3-year trends to October 2011

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Suddenly cold and wet”

Trends to October 2011.

Raw values of some climate variables for October 2011 are like those of October 2010 which, when smoothed, turned out to be a record cold-wet climate peak. Using the two sets of graphs (above and below), one can see:

1. Raw data values (orange) and little-smoothed data values flail around wildly, but the fully-smoothed values (red) near October 2010 (at the left edge of each graph above) trace simpler, more regular curves with points more closely spaced.
2. The approach routes to the two sets of raw data October values were quite different.

Graphs from one year earlier: October 2010.

Trends to October 2010.Maximum temperature anomaly values (x-axis, all graphs)

(a) Maximum temperature partly-smoothed values in 2010 fell from normal to extremely low values taking six months;
(b) The maximum temperature smoothed value for October 2010 became the peak of a cold time: a new record low;
(c) Maximum temperature partly-smoothed values in 2011 fell from normal to extremely low values (LIKE 2010) taking only two months (UNLIKE 2010).

Rainfall anomaly values (y-axis, top left graphs)

(a) Extremely high rainfall in October 2010 followed values that had been rising steadily for eight months;
(b) The smoothed rainfall value for October 2010 became the peak of a wet time: a near-record wet;
(c) Extremely high rainfall in October 2011 (UNLIKE 2010) followed even higher rainfall in September, but normal rainfall just before that.

Cloud anomaly values (y-axis, top right graphs)

(a) Extreme cloudiness in October 2010 followed values that had been rising steadily for ten months;
(b) The smoothed cloudiness value for October 2010 was near the November 2010 peak of a cloudy time: a record for smoothed cloudiness;
(c) Extremely cloudiness in October 2011 (UNLIKE 2010) broke a 10-month trend towards LESS cloudiness.

Dew Point anomaly values (y-axis, centre left graphs)

(a) Very high Dew Points in Aug-Sep-Oct 2010 followed values that had been rising steadily for almost a year;
(b) The smoothed Dew Point value for October 2010 became the peak of a humid time: a near-record;
(c) The Dew Point in October 2011 (UNLIKE 2010) was NOT very high: it was still below normal (i.e. arid) following five months of even lower values.

Temperature Range anomaly values (y-axis, centre right graphs)

(a) Extremely low temperature range in October 2010 followed even lower values;
(b) The smoothed temperature range value for October 2010 was close to the September 2010 record peak low value (-2.80 degrees), more than twice as low as the earlier record set in June 2007 (-1.09 degrees);
(c) The temperature range in October 2011 (UNLIKE 2010) was not very low, but it was much lower than the normal values of the preceding six months.

Min temp anomaly values (y-axis, bottom left graphs)

(a) The min temp in October 2010 was normal, following a full year of very high values;
(b) The smoothed min temp for October 2010 was rather high and falling steadily;
(c) The min temps in September and October 2011 (UNLIKE 2010) were very low, following six months of normal values (UNLIKE 2010).

Subsoil temp anomaly values (y-axis, bottom right graphs)

(a) Extremely low subsoil temp in October 2010 followed a rapid fall in the preceding two months;
(b) The smoothed subsoil temp value for October 2010 was near the peak (November 2010) of a near-record time of low subsoil temp;
(c) As in October 2010, extremely low subsoil temp in October 2011 followed a rapid fall in the preceding two months (LIKE 2010).

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

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