Tag Archives: climate anomalies

3-year trends to December 2012

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Retreat from drought”Trends to December 2012.

In December, the anomaly of daily maximum temperature retreated from the November extreme of +3 degrees to +1.5 degrees. Dew Point and daily temperature range also retreated from drought values. Cloudiness remained normal and daily minimum temperature high. Subsoil temperature returned to the very high values of the winter months.
The variables maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and temperature range are now close to the smoothed values they had three years ago, in December 2009.

Fully-smoothed data (in red) for June 2012 have reached new records for low Dew Point anomaly (-2.61 degrees) and for high subsoil temperature anomaly (+1.99 degrees).

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to November 2012

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“In drought”

Trends to November 2012.

In November, the anomaly of daily maximum temperature (which had paused near zero for five months) suddenly rose to +3°. Daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature also rose, but moisture variables (including daily temperature range) retreated from values typical of extreme drought. November was hotter, but not quite so dry.

Fully-smoothed data (in red) now include all of autumn (March-April-May) 2012. During autumn, all smoothed variables showed a steady advance towards the top right corner of the graphs (“droughts”). However, four variables were still on the “flooding rains” side of neutral: maximum temperature, rainfall, cloud, and minimum temperature. Two variables were already on the “drought” side: dew point and subsoil temperature. Temperature range was neutral.
The May 2012 value of smoothed dew point anomaly (-2.30°) is a new record low for smoothed data, beating the record of the previous month (-2.00°). Following months will be even more arid.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to October 2012

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Rushing into drought”Trends to October 2012.

In October, while daily maximum temperature remained not far above normal, raw values of all other monthly mean anomalies (except minimum temperature and soil temperature) moved further in the “drought” direction. Most extreme was the dew point, which was nearly seven degrees below normal! Daily temperature range was also extremely wide. Rainfall was very low,and cloudiness lower than in recent months.
Minimum temperature anomaly moves erratically. October’s extremely low value resulted from moderate maximum temperature and extreme daily temperature range.
Subsoil temperature returned to normal after seven months above normal.

Fully-smoothed data (in red) now include April 2012. All variables for that month show an advance towards the top right corner of the graphs (typical of droughts).
The April 2012 value of smoothed dew point anomaly (-2.00°) is a new record low for smoothed data, beating the record of July 2011 (-1.70°).

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to September 2012

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Still Very Dry Air”Trends to September 2012.

In September, daily maximum temperatures finally rose above normal. As in August, Dew Points (humidity) remained extremely low, daily minimum temperature very low, rainfall low, and daily temperature range very high. Cloudiness finally fell below normal, and subsoil temperature fell towards normal.

Fully-smoothed data (in red) now include March 2012. All variables for that month show a retreat from the “flooding rains” climate peak. Because the daily minimum temperature anomaly did not reach a minimum in March as I expected, the sequence of peaks for individual variables must be amended as follows:
Nov-11: Rainfall (max); Subsoil temp (min);
Dec-11: Temp range (min); Dew Pt (max);
Jan-12: Temp max (min);
Feb-12: Temp min (min).
The February 2012 value of smoothed minimum daily temperature anomaly (-1.11 degrees) was not quite as low as the record set in March 2008 (-1.17 degrees).

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to August 2012

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Dry Air: Warm Soil”Trends to August 2012.

Daily maximum temperatures remained just below normal in August, as in May, June, and July. Cloudiness was also stable, at about 8% above normal.
From July to August:
* Rainfall went from very high to very low;
* Dew Point went from low to extremely low;
* Temperature Range went from low to high;
* Daily min temps went from very high to very low;
* The subsoil remained extraordinarily warm.
The subsoil temperature anomaly has moved with the anomaly of maximum air temperature for eight months, but is tracking 2.5 degrees higher. This relation is shown by a green line on the bottom left graph.

Fully-smoothed data (in red) now include the whole summer season ending February 2012. At Manilla, this covered a “flooding rains” climate peak that was very much wetter, and somewhat cooler than that a year earlier. The variables reached peaks in sequence as follows:
Nov-11: Rainfall (max); Subsoil temp (min);
Dec-11: Temp range (min); Dew Pt (max);
Jan-12: Temp max (min);
Mar-12: Temp min (min).
Peaks for some variables are not in the usual sequence.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.