Tag Archives: 3-year

3-year trends to April 2012

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“April 2012 like winter 2011”Trends to April 2012.

New raw data for April 2012 anomalies are quite similar to the smoothed values for winter 2011 for all variables but one: subsoil temperature is very high, as it has not been since March 2007.
As in winter 2011, most anomalies are near zero, but skies are very cloudy and, paradoxically, Dew Points are very low.

Record rainfall anomaly

Fully-smoothed data points for October 2011 include a new 13-year record high monthly rainfall anomaly of +38.6 mm (first graph). This beats the record set the previous month by 10 mm, but it will be beaten the following month by a similar margin. Smoothed rainfall anomalies in the last months of 2011 will be well over twice as high as those in the last months of 2010.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to March 2012

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Retreat from cold wet extreme”Trends to March 2012.

New raw data for March 2012 anomalies show a retreat from low extremes towards normal for maximum and minimum temperatures, and temperature range. Rainfall (perhaps temporarily) moved to negative to positive, and subsoil temperature from negative to positive. Cloudiness remained very high, and Dew Point very low.

Fully-smoothed data points for September 2011 include a new 13-year record high monthly rainfall anomaly of +28.6 mm (first graph). This beats the record of +20.0 mm set in November 2005. The new record is sure to be beaten by October and November 2011 when their values can be smoothed.

Although the smoothed value for maximum temperature anomaly in September 2011 was not very low, the smoothed value for December 2011 may reach a record low.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to February 2012

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“February 2012 very cold and wet”Trends to February 2012.

Recent partly-smoothed data points generally diverge rapidly from the near-neutral values of winter. February raw anomalies include extremely high rainfall and extremely low daily maximum and minimum temperatures.
Low humidity persists, marked by negative Dew Point anomalies, despite extreme rainfall and cloud cover.

Winter 2011 a time of trend reversal

Fully smoothed data points are now available for Winter 2011. Most variables show stable near-zero anomaly values at a time of trend reversal:
Max temp anomaly (x-axes, all graphs) had been rising since cold October 2010, but peaked in June 2011 while still negative.
Rainfall anomaly, which had reached a minimum just below zero in May, rose quite rapidly during the winter.
Cloudiness varied little around a minimum in July.
Uniquely, Dew Points were very low: the anomaly reached a new record low smoothed value of -1.70 degrees in July. This beat the drought year smoothed value of -1.48 degrees of September and October 2002.
Daily temperature range was slightly low and falling; so was daily minimum temperature. Subsoil temperature was slightly high and falling.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to January 2012.

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Low Dew Points and cold days persist”Trends to January 2012.

Except for humid November 2011, Dew Points at Manilla (Centre left graph) have now shown remarkable aridity for nine months. The July 2011 value for Dew Point anomaly, now fully smoothed, requires the blue line to be moved yet again. It sets a new lower limit for smoothed Dew Point anomaly: minus 1.70 degrees.
Daily maximum temperature (X-axis, all graphs), from a remarkably low value (-4.7) in December, rose only to -3.6 in January.
On the top left graph, the rainfall anomaly returned from a record positive value in November to stongly negative within two months.
Cloudiness went from very high to extreme.
Daily temperature range (centre right graph) and daily minimum temperature (bottom left graph) moved back from the extreme values of December.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to December 2011

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Extreme changes”Trends to December 2011.

Raw values for some anomalies leap from one extreme to another from November to December 2011. Daily maximum temperature (X-axis, all graphs), from a very high value in November, went to such a remarkably low value (-4.7°) that the scale had to be extended by two degrees.
On the top left graph, the rainfall anomaly returned from an extreme positive value to near zero. Taking max temp and rainfall together, November values were part-way towards the climate of an interglacial epoch, while December values were part-way towards that of a glacial epoch. The centre left graph, including Dew Point anomaly, shows the same effect: hot humid (interglacial) jumping to cold arid (glacial).
While daily temperature range (centre right graph) changed little, daily minimum temperature (bottom left graph) moved with maximum temperature from an extreme of hot days and hot nights to a greater extreme of cold days and cold nights. The November and December values mentioned are far beyond the normal limits (dashed blue lines) set by smoothed data points since 1999.

The last fully-smoothed value (June 2011, in red) for Dew Point anomaly  requires the blue line to be moved. It sets a new lower limit for smoothed Dew Point anomaly: -1.58°. Next month may see the July 2011 value set a new record.
Except for humid November 2011, Dew Points at Manilla have now shown remarkable aridity for eight months.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.