Tag Archives: 2012

In 2012, Autumn Weather Normal Again

Posted in Manilla NSW, Season Weather by

Weather log autumn 2012.
After the cold, wet summer, autumn weather was normal, like last year. Days were warm in early April, and nights cold in mid-May. Rain was rather light: the four days with more than 10 mm of rain came in late April.
Average air temperatures were close to normal, but the early morning Dew Point was 2.1 degrees down, showing very dry air, as in autumn 2008. The subsoil was very warm.
While the percentage of mornings with more than 4/8 cloud (39%) was lower than in the last two autumns, it is still nearly twice that of autumns in the previous decade, which averaged just 25%.
Rain fell on 16 days (normally 12), but the total rainfall of 87.4 mm is only on the 35th percentile for autumn. Like autumns in 2009 and 2010, it is about 45 mm below the average (133 mm). Nevertheless, an enormous amount of rain fell in spring, summer, and autumn taken together: 852 mm! Only 1956 and 1890 had more rain in those three seasons: 1012 mm and 939 mm.Climate autumn 2012

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to May 2012

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at ManillaTrends to May 2012.

New raw data for May 2012 anomalies show a dry climate, quite unlike the extremely wet and very cold summer. Daily max temp was slightly above normal and rainfall well below normal. The Dew Point was extremely low, daily min temp very low, and temperature range very wide. Subsoil temperature remained high: for five months it has been two degrees warmer than might be expected from the daily maximum air temperature.

Spring (SON) 2011 anomalies (now fully smoothed) changed as follows:
Max temp fell rapidly from one degree below normal;
Rainfall began high and increased very rapidly;
Cloudiness remained rather high;
Dew Point was low, but rose slightly;
Temp range and Min temp were both rather low and decreasing;
Subsoil temp was normal.

A new 13-year record high monthly rainfall anomaly of +43.8 mm came in November. This beats the record set the previous month by 5 mm, but it may be beaten the following month.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Very dry air in May 2012

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by

The daily weather logWeather log May 2012.

Most days were fine, and only two or three were cool and overcast. There were 13 frosts, twice the usual number, but May 2006 had 14. Rain totalling 13.8 mm fell on five rain days, with a maximum reading of 6.2 mm on the 25th.

 Comparing May monthsClimate May 2012.

This was a very dry month, marked by dew points four degrees below normal, but it was not as dry as May 2006, as is clear from the graph.
The rainfall total is well below the May average of 40.3 mm: it is in the 24th percentile (3/4 of May months have been wetter). In extreme contrast, the nine-month rainfall total of 852 mm is extra-ordinarily high. Only 13 nine-month totals have been higher, and then only in the four years 1890, 1928, 1956 and 2012 (April). The record for a nine-month rainfall total was 1030 mm, set in June 1956.

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

 

3-year trends to April 2012

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“April 2012 like winter 2011”Trends to April 2012.

New raw data for April 2012 anomalies are quite similar to the smoothed values for winter 2011 for all variables but one: subsoil temperature is very high, as it has not been since March 2007.
As in winter 2011, most anomalies are near zero, but skies are very cloudy and, paradoxically, Dew Points are very low.

Record rainfall anomaly

Fully-smoothed data points for October 2011 include a new 13-year record high monthly rainfall anomaly of +38.6 mm (first graph). This beats the record set the previous month by 10 mm, but it will be beaten the following month by a similar margin. Smoothed rainfall anomalies in the last months of 2011 will be well over twice as high as those in the last months of 2010.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

April 2012 cloudy and wet

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by

The daily weather logWeather log April 2012.

Most days had normal temperatures, but several were cool and overcast. Cold nights came during sunny spells, the coldest, on the 11th, being nine degrees below normal, but not a frost. Rain totalling 58.2 mm fell on seven rain days, mainly late in the month, with a maximum reading of 14.2 mm on the 24th.

 Comparing April monthsClimate April 2012.

All the mean temperatures were near normal, except that subsoil temperature was the highest for April on this record: 2.1 degrees above normal.

There were more cloudy days than recorded in earlier Aprils.
The rainfall total of 58.2 mm is well above the April average of 39.3 mm: it is in the 80th percentile. The total for March and April taken together (73.6 mm) is exactly on the average. As in March, totals for periods from five months to twenty-four months are still near record high values, and no totals up to the thirty-year total are below normal.

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.