Author Archives: surlybond

Winter 2014 normal

Posted in Manilla NSW, Season Weather by
Berries on a melia tree

Chinaberries in winter

This winter, there were no very warm or very cold spells. There was one sunny spell with a wide daily temperature range in early August, followed by a week with a narrow temperature range.
There were 38 frosts. While this is below the 16-year winter average of 44, it is near the average for the last seven winters. From 2001 to 2006 the winter average was higher: 47 frosts.
Rain fell on 15 days (normal), with a highest reading of 26.6 mm, which is also normal in winter.Weather log for winter 2014

Seasonal means and totals were all not far from normal except for the dew point. The dew point of 0.7 degrees was more than two degrees low, showing extremely dry air, as in winter 2012. The daily minimum temperature was almost a degree high, reducing the temperature range and raising the mean temperature as well.

The winter rainfall total of 106 mm is just below the average (125 mm) and in the 40th percentile.

Climate for winter 2014

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperature, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

Warming and Carbon Emissions: Shifting Trends

Posted in Climate Change, World Climate by

Log from 1850 of world surface air temperature and carbon emissions

Trends in global temperature and in carbon emissions changed sharply several times during the last 160 years.
One question is at the heart of concern about human influence on climate: how does global temperature relate to human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide?
This graph shows that relation: it does not explain it.

[This post published 9/05/2014 was made “sticky” during early April 2018 to show the inclusion of Gail Tverberg’s recent graph of world energy consumption.]

Data

I display two well-established data sets:
1. The HadCRUT4 record of estimated global surface air temperature. Values are expressed as the anomaly from 1961-1990 mean values in degrees celsius.(See Note 1. below.)
2. Global Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions, tabulated and graphed as tonnes of carbon (See Note 2. below.)) by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge.(See Note 3. below.)

The format of the data is given in Note 4. below.

Multi-decadal linear trends

Trends in carbon emissions

Throughout this time, the rate of carbon emissions increased exponentially, but at rates that changed abruptly at certain dates. In units of log-cycles per century, the rates were:

From 1850: 1.97 units;
From 1913: 0.28 units;
From 1945: 2.14 units;
From 1973: 0.77 units.

Energy consumption 1820-2010Note added April 2018.
The two episodes of low rate of growth of carbon emissions, from 1913 to 1945 and from 1973 to 2009, relate to times of low growth in world energy consumption. This graph by Gail Tverberg shows that world energy consumption grew so slowly from 1920 to 1940 and from 1980 to 2000 that it did not keep up with the growth of population. Continue reading →

3-year trends to August 2014

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“August 2014 back to normal”

Trends to August 2014

 August data (orange)

Most raw anomaly values for August have returned to near normal. The daily maximum temperature anomaly has finally fallen below normal and rainfall has risen above normal. The dew point anomaly remains well below normal, but its value is on the (green) trend line that has applied during the last three years.

Fully smoothed data (red)

Fully-smoothed data is now available for the summer season ending in February 2014. During the summer all variables except daily minimum temperature moved decisively away from drought. Rainfall increased rather slowly, but cloudiness increased very rapidly, and daily temperature range fell very rapidly.

The hot-arid climatic peak (drought) of spring 2013

Extreme anomaly values of climate variables came in the following order:

Highest minimum temperature (not high): July;
Highest subsoil temperature (extreme): July;
Widest temperature range (very wide): October;
Highest maximum temperature (extreme): October;
Least cloudiness (normal): October;
Lowest dew point (extreme): December;
Lowest rainfall (very low): December-January.

This is not the order that is typical in recent extreme episodes. The smoothed rainfall anomaly minimum of -22.3 mm (not nearly as low as the -27.1 mm of July 2002) came much later than the peak of daily maximum temperature. On the top left graph the trace curved anti-clockwise, which is unusual.

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999. They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 

August 2014 normal but with dry air

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by

The daily weather log

Purple flowers

Early-blooming Hardenbergia

The weekly temperature was normal throughout, but the first half of the month had sunny warm days, cold nights and very dry air. The night of the 3rd (-4.0°) was the coldest August night this century, and the early morning of the 12th had the lowest August dew point (-8.7°). Two brief overcast and rainy spells began on the 16th and 26th, yielding 54.4 mm in five rain days. The reading of 26.6 mm on the 17th was one of the highest for August in recent years.
The number of frosts (12) was a little below normal (15).

Weather log August 2014

 Comparing August months

While August 2008 had been the coolest, and August 2009 the warmest in the 21st century, nearly all averages this month were near normal. As exceptions, the daily maximum temperature was slightly low and the dew point (as in the two previous August months) was very low. Few mornings had dew on the grass.
The total rainfall of 54.4 mm is in the 75th percentile, well above the August average (40 mm). This rain also raised the rainfall totals for periods of more than one month, so that only the 18-month total of 691 mm now remains as a serious shortage (9th percentile).

Climate August 2014  

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash  Street, Manilla.

August Climate Anomalies Log

Posted in 21st-century climate, Calendar month anomalies, Climate Change, Manilla NSW by

Heat Indicators log for August months

This post is the sixth in a set for the 12 calendar months. Graphs are sixteen-year logs of the monthly mean anomaly values of nine climate variables for Manilla, NSW, with fitted trend lines. I have explained the method in notes at the foot of the page.

Raw anomaly values for August

Extreme values of August anomalies in this period were:

Temperature range anomaly (minus) +4.1 deg: August 2010;
Dew Point Anomaly -4.5 deg: August 2012.

Trend lines for August

Heat Indicators

The trend of mean temperature anomalies was almost constant. The trend of daily maximum temperature anomalies was almost constant, but had a weak minimum at 2007. The trend of minimum temperature anomaly had a weak minimum in 2001 and a weak maximum in 2010. The subsoil temperature anomaly trend ended very high, after a weak minimum in 2005.

Moisture Indicators log for August months

Continue reading →