Tag Archives: trend

3-year trends to February 2015

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“February 2015: very dry”

Trends toFebruary 2015

  February raw anomaly data (orange)

In February, most anomalies moved back towards “droughts” from the “flooding rains” values of January. Rainfall became extremely low, but daily maximum temperature did not rise as far as “normal”.
Exceptionally, February daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature became very low.

Fully smoothed data (red)

The latest fully-smoothed data anomalies (August 2014) complete the winter of 2014. Through the winter season, most values were static and near normal. (Dew point, like most recent values of that variable, was 3 degrees lower than normal.)

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to January 2015

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“January 2015: rainy cool days”

Trends to January 2015

 

January raw anomaly data (orange)

Anomalies for all variables except subsoil temperature moved across the graphs, from “droughts” in November to “flooding rains” in January. Subsoil temperature had been normal from February to December (11 months!), then became cooler than normal in January.
Most raw anomaly values for January were close to the fully-smoothed anomaly values of the La Niña-affected cool summer of 2012. This month’s daily temperature range was even narrower, and the subsoil temperature lower, but the daily minimum temperature was not so low.

Fully smoothed data (red)

The latest fully-smoothed data anomalies (July 2014) were near normal. (Dew point, like most recent values of that variable, was 3° lower than normal.)

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to December 2014

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“December 2014 rain again”

Trends to December 2014

December data (orange)

From November to December, the raw anomaly value for daily maximum temperature returned to normal from extremely high. Rainfall anomaly moved from very dry to rather wet. Most other anomalies came back to near zero, where they had been (as smoothed values) in June 2014, six months earlier.
Temperature range became low while daily minimum temperature remained high. (Which causes which?)

Fully smoothed data (red)

The latest fully-smoothed data (June 2014) mainly show a renewed movement towards drought.

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to November 2014

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“November 2014 more droughty”

Trends to November 2014

November data (orange)

The raw anomaly value for daily maximum temperature became extremely high: +5.1°. (The record positive anomaly was +5.6°, set in November 2009.) There were also extreme “droughts” values for high daily minimum temperature, high daily temperature range and low monthly rainfall. Values for cloudy days, dew point and subsoil temperature were near normal.

Fully smoothed data (red)

The latest fully-smoothed data (May 2014) complete the season of autumn 2014. The movement away from the mild drought of late 2013 ended in this month. Rainfall was rather low, skies rather cloudy, dew point low (near a new “normal”), temperature range and subsoil temperature normal.
Contrariwise, the smoothed anomaly of daily minimum temperature peaked in May 2014, showing a more maritime climatic episode.

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to October 2014

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“October 2014 droughty”

Trends to October 2014

October data (orange)

All raw anomaly values for October, except subsoil temperature, moved suddenly to drought: high temperatures and little moisture. Subsoil temperature, which had been at a record high value fifteen months earlier, became very low.

Fully smoothed data (red)

The latest fully-smoothed data (April 2014), like that of the previous month, continued the trends established in summer. All (except daily minimum temperature) moved away from drought. A movement back towards drought came only later.
Since the major “flooding rains” episode of summer 2011-12, (lower left corner on the graphs)  Manilla’s climate has swung towards drought three times:
(i) a very mild drought in October 2012, returning to normal by March 2013;
(ii) a moderate drought that was very hot in October 2013 and dry in January 2014, returning to normal about May 2014;
(iii) perhaps a further drought about October 2014 (to be identified later).

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.