Tag Archives: trend

3-year trends to May 2016

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“May 2016 still warm”

Trends to May 2016

May raw anomaly data (orange)

In May 2016, the raw anomaly of daily maximum temperature fell to just above the normal range. Raw values for anomalies of all but a few variables were nearer to normal than the “droughty” partially-smoothed values of recent months. Skies became more cloudy, and subsoil temperature warmer, while the dew point stayed rather low.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Fully-smoothed data are now available for the spring months, September, October, and November of 2015. In that season, most temperature anomalies moved higher, and most moisture anomalies moved lower towards a state of very mild drought. Moving against the trend were subsoil temperature (moving lower) and rainfall (moving higher).

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to April 2016

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“April 2016 also warm”

Trends to April 2016

April raw anomaly data (orange)

In April 2016, raw values for anomalies of daily maximum temperature (x-axis), daily minimum temperature (lower left graph), and daily temperature range (centre right graph) were high. Those of other variables were near normal, except that rainfall was rather low.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

The latest fully-smoothed data is for October 2015. Values were near normal. Temperatures trended warmer except in the subsoil, which trended cooler.

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to March 2016

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“March 2016 like March 2015”

Trends to March 2016

March raw anomaly data (orange)

In March 2016, raw values for nearly all measured climate anomalies moved close to normal. The exceptions were daily maximum temperature (x-axis), which remained very high as in February, and daily minimum temperature (lower left graph), which rose from very low to very high. Raw anomaly values for this month are similar to those of March 2015, a year ago. This is not evident on these graphs. As March 2015 came in a cool period, smoothed values of its temperatures are low. The original raw values are shown in the graphs for that earlier date.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

The latest fully-smoothed data is for September 2015. Values were near normal and trending warmer and perhaps drier.

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to February 2016

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“February 2016: suddenly dry”

Trends to February 2016

February raw anomaly data (orange)

In February 2016, raw values for anomalies moved completely across the graphs, from cool and moist in January, generally to hot and dry in February. As in a desert, days became very hot, skies very sunny, and the daily temperature range extreme. Rainfall and dew point were only moderately low, while daily minimum temperature abruptly fell very low, and subsoil temperature remained very low.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

With data for August 2015, fully smoothed data is complete for winter 2015. Most anomalies for the season were quite small, but were moving away from cool and moist.

Trend lines on the graphs

Manilla’s climate often oscillates along the blue trend lines from bottom left (cool, moist) to top right (hot, dry) on the graphs. The climate can also vary along other axes.
In this time-frame the sub-soil temperature anomaly (bottom right graph) is leading the daily maximum temperature anomaly by several months. That produces a clockwise looping pattern. The daily minimum temperature anomaly (bottom left graph) sometimes moves with the daily maximum temperature anomaly, and sometimes moves against it. When against it, as from July 2013 to October 2014, the climate swings between Continental, with hot days and cool nights (as October 2013), and Maritime, with cool days and warm nights (as May 2014). Current raw data for January and February 2016 show a large swing from Maritime to Continental.

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

3-year trends to January 2016

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“January 2016: moist again”

Trends to January 2016

January raw anomaly data (orange)

In January 2016, raw values for nearly all anomalies moved well towards the cool and moist corner of the graphs.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

In the latest month with fully smoothed data (July 2015) anomalies were quite small, but were moving towards warm and dry. Partially smoothed data points for more recent months show that the warm and dry “El Nino” influence on values around October and November was smaller than it seemed at first. In particular, rainfall did not go below the “normal” range, but the anomaly of daily minimum temperature rose quite high.

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.