Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“May 2016 still warm”

May raw anomaly data (orange)

In May 2016, the raw anomaly of daily maximum temperature fell to just above the normal range. Raw values for anomalies of all but a few variables were nearer to normal than the “droughty” partially-smoothed values of recent months. Skies became more cloudy, and subsoil temperature warmer, while the dew point stayed rather low.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Fully-smoothed data are now available for the spring months, September, October, and November of 2015. In that season, most temperature anomalies moved higher, and most moisture anomalies moved lower towards a state of very mild drought. Moving against the trend were subsoil temperature (moving lower) and rainfall (moving higher).

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.