Tag Archives: normal

August 2014 normal but with dry air

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by

The daily weather log

Purple flowers

Early-blooming Hardenbergia

The weekly temperature was normal throughout, but the first half of the month had sunny warm days, cold nights and very dry air. The night of the 3rd (-4.0°) was the coldest August night this century, and the early morning of the 12th had the lowest August dew point (-8.7°). Two brief overcast and rainy spells began on the 16th and 26th, yielding 54.4 mm in five rain days. The reading of 26.6 mm on the 17th was one of the highest for August in recent years.
The number of frosts (12) was a little below normal (15).

Weather log August 2014

 Comparing August months

While August 2008 had been the coolest, and August 2009 the warmest in the 21st century, nearly all averages this month were near normal. As exceptions, the daily maximum temperature was slightly low and the dew point (as in the two previous August months) was very low. Few mornings had dew on the grass.
The total rainfall of 54.4 mm is in the 75th percentile, well above the August average (40 mm). This rain also raised the rainfall totals for periods of more than one month, so that only the 18-month total of 691 mm now remains as a serious shortage (9th percentile).

Climate August 2014  

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash  Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to July 2014

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“July 2014 dry again”

Trends to July 2014

 July data (orange)

Most raw anomaly values for July have now moved back to be like the smoothed values during the summer drought. Very few of the partially-smoothed values during the last few months suggested a trend in this direction.

Fully smoothed data (red)

January 2014 is now the latest fully-smoothed data point. Through November, December and January all variables moved decisively away from drought, except for rainfall and daily minimum temperature. In those months, rainfall remained near a (drought) minimum. Daily minimum temperature (which has a cryptic relation to drought) increased, bringing very warm nights in autumn.

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999. They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 

Dry July 2014

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by

The daily weather log

Photo of sunlit house interior

July sun heats the house

Normal sunny July weather was broken by two rainy days in mid-month and another “rainy” day later. With the first rain there was a very warm night of 11.0°, at the time when nights are usually at their coldest (1.8°).
Late in the month days and nights were two degrees warmer than usual.Weather log July 2014

 Comparing July months

Average temperatures were normal, but the rainfall was low and the humidity (Dew Point) was very low. Recent July months have been quite different. Last July was very warm, July 2012 was very wet (ninth wettest), and July 2010 was very cloudy and wet, with warm nights. This month was not as dry as July 2011, which was not as dry as July in the drought year: 2002.
The total rainfall of 11.4 mm is in the 15th percentile. Taking rainfall totals for more than one month, the 4-month total of 83 mm is now a serious shortage (6th percentile). There are also serious shortages in the totals for 12 months (6th percentile), 15 months (8th percentile), and 18 months (9th percentile), Other totals have higher percentile values, and most totals for 36 months or more are above normal. In the very long term, the 30-year rainfall total (19,314 mm) has just fallen below the median for the first time since August 2010.
(Note. Figures for 30-year totals begin in 1914. The lowest 30-year total rainfall was 18,026 mm (601 mm per year) in November 1940; the highest was 21,031 mm (701 mm per year) in December 1978.)Climate July 2014

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to June 2014

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Climate normal for now”

Trends to June 2014

 June data (orange)

Raw anomaly values for June 2014 have nothing in common with the droughty conditions at the end of 2013. Daily maximum temperature and rainfall (top left graph) are both normal. A return to a moist climate, like that in spring 2011, shows as cloudy skies (top right), high dew point (mid left), and narrow temperature range (mid right). Daily minimum temperature (lower left) has moved independently to a high value (that is, very warm nights). Only subsoil temperature (lower right) has jumped back to warm 2013 values, after a period of normalcy.

Fully smoothed data (red)

December 2013 is now the latest fully-smoothed data point. It seems to mark the point of lowest rainfall and dew point anomalies in recent months. In other variables (except daily minimum temperature) December continued a retreat from recent extreme (drought) values.

Note:
Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999. They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 

June 2014: normal weather

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by

The daily weather log

Vintage machinery fair

Oil Engine’s Day Out

In four short  rainy spells, nights were very warm and days cool. Otherwise, the weather was normal but rather cloudy. There were eight rain days (normally six). The wettest had 17 mm, which is normal. Only nine mornings were frosty, when normally there are thirteen.

Weather log June 2014

Comparing June months

Most average values were near normal for June. However, the nights were warm, the daily temperature range narrow, and the skies cloudy. The month was not extremely wet and cloudy like June last year.
The total rainfall of 40.2 mm is in the 55th percentile, close to the average.. Taking rainfall totals for more than one month, only the 12-month and 15-month totals are serious shortages (7th percentile). The 3-month total (71 mm) is in the 12th percentile. Other totals have higher percentile values, and most totals for 36 months or more are above normal.

Climate June 2014

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.