Decadal and Inter-decadal changes in rainfall: II.

Log of smoothed summer and winter rainfall anomalies.

Part 2 of 3: The record restricted to 1891-1982 (92 years)

(See Notes below for data and plotting details.)

No climatic record is ever long enough to demonstrate apparent cycles, trends or extremes beyond doubt. In Part 1, a linear trend of summer rainfall rising at 24.7 mm per century was fitted to the whole 130-year record. Although this is a very high (perhaps unsustainable) rate of increase, the trend line explains hardly any of the variation. The R-squared value is 0.03! However, there does seem to be a steeper quasi-linear trend prevailing for most of the period of record. The graphs I have posted here show a restricted record beginning in 1891 and ending in 1982. This simulates an analysis done in 1983 (which could not have used more recent data) and supposes that records earlier than 1891 were unavailable for some reason.

I have chosen these dates so that
(i) the near-record smoothed summer rainfall maximum of 1891 is excluded but the record smoothed summer rainfall minimum of 1900 is included;
(ii) the record smoothed summer rainfall maximum of 1975 is included but the very low smoothed summer rainfall minimum of 1987 is excluded.
(Due to the smoothing window extending six years before and after a specified date, smoothed rainfall values can be calculated only from 1897 to 1976.)

Log of smoothed sum and difference of summer and winter rainfall anomalies.

Linear trends

For this restricted data set of 92 years, all four linear trends are very much steeper than for the whole 130-year record. The R-squared values are also much higher, indicating that the Continue reading

September 2014 cool and dry

Acacia decora hedge

A hedge of western golden wattle

The daily weather log

Two 5-day cool spells began on the 2nd and the 17th. Days and nights were both three or four degrees cooler than normal. At the same time, the air was very dry: a new lowest September dew point of minus 8.1° came on the 19th.
At other times, temperatures were near normal. There were four frosts (normally three). There were four rain days, which is normal.
The first thirty-degree day since mid-winter came on the 30th. At Manilla, it often comes near the spring equinox (September 22nd). In the 21st century, the first thirty-degree day came as early as August 23rd in 2009 and as late as November 9th in 2010.

Weather log September 2014.

 Comparing September months

Last September had been the warmest in this century. While not cold like September 2004, this month was half a degree cooler than normal. Like September in 2003, 2007, and 2012, it was both cool and dry. By contrast, the cool Septembers of 2010 and 2011 were wet, affected by La Nina.
Cloudiness and daily temperature range were near normal, but the mean dew point (1.4°) was not much higher than the extreme low value (0.6°) set last year.
The total rainfall of 18.8 mm is in the 26th percentile, well below the September average of 41 mm. Totals for periods of more than one month now have serious shortages for six months (7th percentile), nine months (7th percentile), and fifteen months (5th percentile), and a severe shortage for eighteen months (4th percentile).

The current drought report (6/10/2014) of the Bureau of Meteorology shows some serious and severe rainfall deficiencies in the area. Ten-month deficiencies extend west to Manilla from the Northern Tablelands, and there are 24-month rainfall deficiencies near Manilla and widespread around Walgett, 300 km to the north-west.

Climate September 2014.  


Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash  Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to September 2014

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“September 2014 had little rain”

Trends to September 2014

 September data (orange)

Most raw anomaly values for September remained on the cool-moist side of normal. However. both rainfall and dew point were again well below normal.

Fully smoothed data (red)

The latest fully-smoothed data (March 2014) continued the trends established in summer. All were moving away from drought, except for daily minimum temperature. That is, nights were becoming very warm.


Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999. They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 

September Climate Anomalies Log

Heat Indicators log for September months

This post is the seventh in a set for the 12 calendar months that began with March. Graphs are sixteen-year logs of the monthly mean anomaly values of nine climate variables for Manilla, NSW, with fitted trend lines. I have explained the method in notes at the foot of the page.

Raw anomaly values for September

Extreme values of September anomalies in this period were all in the “Moisture Indicators” group:

Temperature range anomaly (minus) +3.6 deg: September 2010;
Cloudy days % anomaly +33%: September 2010;
Dew Point Anomalies (4) -3.8 deg: September 2011, -4.7 deg: September 2012, -4.9 deg: September 2013, -4.1 deg: September 2014.

Trend lines for September

Heat Indicators

The trend of daily maximum temperature anomalies was concave, with a minimum at 2007. The trend of mean temperature anomalies was similar, but less concave. The trend of minimum temperature anomaly was almost straight, but had a weak maximum in 2008 and ended low. The subsoil temperature anomaly trend was parallel to that of the daily maximum, but higher.

Moisture Indicators log for September months

Continue reading

Decadal and Inter-decadal changes in rainfall: I.

Log of smoothed summer and winter rainfall anomalies.

Part 1 of 3: The whole 130-year record

(See Notes below for data and plotting details.)

Anomalies of smoothed summer and winter rainfall

Episodes of high or low summer rainfall do not coincide with those of winter rainfall (except in 1891). Nor do they consistently oppose each other, although this is common. The summer rainfall anomaly (red) was extremely low (-101 mm) about 1900, and extremely high (+119 mm) about 1975. The winter rainfall anomaly (blue) had lower extreme values: 1939 (-48 mm) was the lowest of several low values, and 1987 (+63 mm) the highest of several high ones.

Seasonal sums and differences

I plotted the smoothed yearly value of rainfall anomaly as the sum (purple) of a winter anomaly value and that of the following summer. There was an extreme maximum in 1891 (+139 mm!), and minimal values in 1899 (-79 mm) and 1913 (-87 mm), among others.
The difference between summer and winter seasonal anomalies (orange) shows as an extreme summer excess in 1974 (+163 mm), and extreme winter excesses in 1900 (-126 mm) and 1987 (-114 mm).

Log of smoothed sum and difference of summer and winter rainfall anomalies.

“Dreadful Thirst”

Banjo Paterson’s comic verse “City of Dreadful Thirst” refers to the town of Narromine, 300 kilometres west of Manilla.
Continue reading