3-year trends to June 2012

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at ManillaTrends to June 2012.

June 2012 anomalies show a return to normalcy for rainfall and maximum temperature. Three moisture-related measures returned to the values of last winter: rather high cloudiness, rather low daily temperature range, and (strangely) rather low Dew Point. Daily min temp returned to the high positive anomaly last seen in 2010.
The subsoil became extraordinarily warm. (Why?)

Fully-smoothed data (in red) show that the 13-year record high monthly rainfall anomaly of November 2011 (+43.8 mm) was not beaten in December, as had seemed likely. The smoothed maximum temperature of December 2011 equalled the record cool anomaly of -1.96 degrees set in October 2010.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal Weather in June 2012

The daily weather logWeather log June 2012.

Most weather features in June were normal.: much the same as last year and the year before. Even the frosts were normal. Eleven mornings were frosty, 7 below zero, and 2 below minus 2° (averages: 13, 8, and 2). The coldest morning, Sunday the 24th, was -4.0°. There were several early fogs in the valley but only that on the 24th stayed after 9am.
There were 8 rain days, the highest reading being 21.0 mm on the 3rd.

 Comparing June monthsClimate June 2012.

There is only one variable that is not on the June average: the subsoil temperature at 750 mm is extraordinarily warm, at 18.3°, 3.0° above normal.

The rainfall total of 45.8 mm is within 2 mm of the average (44.3 mm) and in the 60th percentile. Among totals for more than one month, only the 2-, 3-, and 4-month totals are below the median.


Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

 

3-year trends to June 2011.

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Dry air but not warm or sunny”Trends to June 2011.

Raw anomaly data for June 2011 (shown in orange) are a little strange.
Daily max temperature, shown on the x-axis of all six graphs, has stalled without quite rising to normal from the extreme cold of last October.
Two variables indicate severe drought: Rainfall was very low, and so was the early morning Dew Point.
Most other variables are near normal, or slightly to the “flooding rains” side of normal.
Percent of cloudy mornings (>4 Octas) remains stable at a very high positive anomaly. For a calendar month that had 35% cloudy mornings in the reference decade beginning in 1999, it now has 55% cloudy mornings.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

June 2011 rather cool and dry

The daily weather logWeather log June 2011.

June began and ended with warm sunny days. The second week was cold: the 9th had a maximum of only 12° after a frosty night of -2.7°. Days from the 12th to the 15th were not much warmer, made miserable by overcast and rain, but the nights were warm. The 8/8 cloud recorded on the morning of the 24th was fog, which cleared to a blue sky at 10:45.
The highest rainfall reading was only 8 mm, recorded on the 22nd. Five rain days totalled 17.8 mm.

 Comparing June monthsClimate June 2011.

Of the mean temperature readings, only the mean daily maximum was a bit lower than usual. Days were not as cold as in June 2007. This time, there were 14 frosts, which is near the decade average.
The rainfall of 17.8 mm is rather low: on the 20th percentile for June. (The long-term June average is 44.3 mm.) June rainfalls have fallen rather steadily since June 2005, the sixth wettest on record at 109 mm. Nearly all rainfall totals for groups of months (up to 360 months) continue to be near normal. Only those for three months and four months are below the 25th percentile.


Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

 

June 2010 Weather on Average

The daily weather log

Weather log June 2010

Twice the weather cycled from warm, through rain, to sunny and cold. There were 10 frosty mornings, ending with a minimum down to -3.1°. While frostier than last June, which had only 5 frosts, it was less frosty than June 2006 (21 frosts) or June 2000, which had five mornings below -4°.
A modest rainfall reading of 21.8 mm on the 3rd was the highest since December and the third highest in 12 months. Seven rain days brought 42.8 mm for the month.

 Comparing June months

Climate June 2010

All mean temperatures, Dew Point, and cloud were close to their averages. The daily maximum temperature was 0.6° down, and the daily minimum temperature 1.1° up, making the daily temperature range (13.2°) narrower than normal by 1.7°.
The rainfall of 42.8 mm is in the 57th percentile for June. It is close to the long-term average of 44 mm. In 14 months since April 2009 no month has beaten its average. All the same, groups of months show no serious rainfall shortages. Even the 15-month total (573 mm) has now risen to the 10th percentile.


Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.