Tag Archives: Gaussian smoothing

3-year trends to November 2011

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Bizarre values of climate anomalies”Trends to November 2011.

Most raw values for variables for November 2011 are bizarre. The rainfall anomaly (top left) is so high the scale has had to be extended by four times. The daily maximum temperature anomaly (all graphs, x-axis) has jumped from very low to high. High temperature seldom occurs with high rainfall, but that is thought to be normal in an interglacial climate. Similarly for the high Dew Point (centre left) with high maximum temperature. Two other temperatures jumped up along with maximum temperature: minimum temperature, and subsoil temperature.

Fully-smoothed data points (red) are now available for the autumn months (MAM) of 2011. Each variable showed a steady trend in one direction (but this did not continue through winter).
Max temp increased towards normal.
Rainfall decreased through normal.
Cloudiness was high but decreasing.
Dew Point (humidity) was below normal and falling very rapidly.
Temperature Range was rising towards normal.
Min temp was falling through normal as max temp was rising: a trend from equable towards extreme.
Subsoil temperature increased with maximum temperature.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to October 2011

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Suddenly cold and wet”

Trends to October 2011.

Raw values of some climate variables for October 2011 are like those of October 2010 which, when smoothed, turned out to be a record cold-wet climate peak. Using the two sets of graphs (above and below), one can see:

1. Raw data values (orange) and little-smoothed data values flail around wildly, but the fully-smoothed values (red) near October 2010 (at the left edge of each graph above) trace simpler, more regular curves with points more closely spaced.
2. The approach routes to the two sets of raw data October values were quite different.

Graphs from one year earlier: October 2010.

Trends to October 2010.Maximum temperature anomaly values (x-axis, all graphs)

(a) Maximum temperature partly-smoothed values in 2010 fell from normal to extremely low values taking six months;
(b) The maximum temperature smoothed value for October 2010 became the peak of a cold time: a new record low;
(c) Maximum temperature partly-smoothed values in 2011 fell from normal to extremely low values (LIKE 2010) taking only two months (UNLIKE 2010).

Rainfall anomaly values (y-axis, top left graphs)

(a) Extremely high rainfall in October 2010 followed values that had been rising steadily for eight months;
(b) The smoothed rainfall value for October 2010 became the peak of a wet time: a near-record wet;
(c) Extremely high rainfall in October 2011 (UNLIKE 2010) followed even higher rainfall in September, but normal rainfall just before that.

Cloud anomaly values (y-axis, top right graphs)

(a) Extreme cloudiness in October 2010 followed values that had been rising steadily for ten months;
(b) The smoothed cloudiness value for October 2010 was near the November 2010 peak of a cloudy time: a record for smoothed cloudiness;
(c) Extremely cloudiness in October 2011 (UNLIKE 2010) broke a 10-month trend towards LESS cloudiness.

Dew Point anomaly values (y-axis, centre left graphs)

(a) Very high Dew Points in Aug-Sep-Oct 2010 followed values that had been rising steadily for almost a year;
(b) The smoothed Dew Point value for October 2010 became the peak of a humid time: a near-record;
(c) The Dew Point in October 2011 (UNLIKE 2010) was NOT very high: it was still below normal (i.e. arid) following five months of even lower values.

Temperature Range anomaly values (y-axis, centre right graphs)

(a) Extremely low temperature range in October 2010 followed even lower values;
(b) The smoothed temperature range value for October 2010 was close to the September 2010 record peak low value (-2.80 degrees), more than twice as low as the earlier record set in June 2007 (-1.09 degrees);
(c) The temperature range in October 2011 (UNLIKE 2010) was not very low, but it was much lower than the normal values of the preceding six months.

Min temp anomaly values (y-axis, bottom left graphs)

(a) The min temp in October 2010 was normal, following a full year of very high values;
(b) The smoothed min temp for October 2010 was rather high and falling steadily;
(c) The min temps in September and October 2011 (UNLIKE 2010) were very low, following six months of normal values (UNLIKE 2010).

Subsoil temp anomaly values (y-axis, bottom right graphs)

(a) Extremely low subsoil temp in October 2010 followed a rapid fall in the preceding two months;
(b) The smoothed subsoil temp value for October 2010 was near the peak (November 2010) of a near-record time of low subsoil temp;
(c) As in October 2010, extremely low subsoil temp in October 2011 followed a rapid fall in the preceding two months (LIKE 2010).

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to September 2011

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Paradoxical Trends.”Trends to September 2011.

September values are paradoxical.They show sudden reversals of trend and unusual relationships between the attributes.

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (x-axis, all graphs), which had been accelerating upwards, fell suddenly below normal.

Monthly rainfall anomaly (y-axis, top left graph), from very low in July, became extremely high.

Cloudiness (top right graph) fell suddenly to a value that was normal three years ago, but not since.

Dew Point anomaly (centre left), having been briefly near normal in August, resumed a trend to extreme aridity.

Temperature range anomaly (centre right) hovered near normal.

Daily minimum temperature anomaly (bottom left) suddenly fell even faster than that of daily maximum temperature

Subsoil temperature anomaly (bottom right), which had been above normal, fell along with daily maximum temperature anomaly.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Winter 2011 extremely dry

Posted in Manilla NSW, Season Weather by

Weather log winter 2011For temperature, this winter was normal. Otherwise, it was strange: it had the extreme low rainfall and low humidity that come with drought, without sunny skies or severe winter frosts.
During the season, two spells of weather stood out. In mid-June cool days and very warm nights came with rain, cloud, and high humidity. The last days of July and the first week of August had very warm sunny days with very low humidity. A mid-winter spell of cold weather in mid-July was not much colder than that in early June.
The number of frosts (40) was below the average number (44). The coldest screen reading was -3.7°, exactly on the average.
The percentage of mornings with more than 4/8 cloud (50%) was a new record for winter. Winters in 2008, 2009, and 2010 had percentages in the high forties, compared with the earlier average of 34%. On four mornings fog did not clear until late; five others had some fog in the valley.
Humidity was extremely low, marked by a mean early-morning Dew Point of 1.2°, the lowest winter mean on this record.
There were 19 rain days, which is normal. However, falls were extremely light: the highest daily reading of 8.2 mm was by far the lowest maximum reading in 13 winters. The winter total of 55.0 mm is in the 11th percentile: it was the 14th driest winter on record, only slightly wetter than that in the extreme drought year 2002 (44.6 mm).Climate winter 2011

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to August 2011.

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Summer showed warming and drying”Trends to August 2011.

New fully-smoothed data for summer 2010-11

Daily maximum temperature anomalies (x-axis, all graphs) are more clearly shown on the top right graph. They rose at 0.3° per month: about the same rate as they had fallen in the winter. From the extreme cold (-1.96°) of October 2010, the February value was half-way back to normal.

Monthly rainfall anomalies (y-axis, top left graph) decreased through summer, exactly reversing the winter trend.

Cloudiness (top right graph) also reversed the trend seen in winter but, for a given temperature value, there was now more cloud.

Dew Point anomaly (centre left) fell much more rapidly than it had risen in winter. It was near normal by February.

Temperature range anomaly (centre right) rose much more rapidly during summer than that of maximum temperature, and reached higher values. As has appeared persistently in this data series, temperature range is the first variable to reach a positive or negative peak anomaly value. Here, its minimum value was in September, a month before the minimum value of daily maximum temperature. On these axes, the curve loops clock-wise as a result.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (bottom left) fell steadily towards normal through spring and summer, completing a broad 30-month loop with daily maximum temperature anomaly.

Subsoil temperature anomaly (bottom right) fell along with daily maximum temperature anomaly.

Partially smoothed and unsmoothed data since February

Early winter 2011 had very low rainfall, very low Dew Points, and warm subsoil. Raw anomaly values for August suggest that the climate has since returned to normal, if somewhat warm and dry.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.