Tag Archives: february

3-year trends to February 2013

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Suddenly colder”Trends to February 2013.

Temperatures, both max and min, fell from very high in January to very low in February. Daily temperature range and rainfall remained normal. Dew point remained very low, while cloudiness and subsoil temperature remained high.

Winter 2012

Fully-smoothed data (in red) reveal that the trend in winter, as in autumn, was towards “droughts” (top right) for all variables except subsoil temperature (which peaked). Mean values over winter, however, were very different:
* Subsoil temperature: very high;
* Cloudiness and temperature range: rather high;
* Maximum temperature and rainfall: normal;
* Minimum temperature: rather low;
* Dew point: extremely low.
In August, dew point anomaly again reached a new record low: -3.21 degrees.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Cool February 2013

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by

The daily weather logWeather log February 2013.

Hardly any days or nights in February were warmer than normal. The daily maximum temperature of 23.6° on the 2nd was 10.1° below normal. (But one day in February 2009 reached only 17.8°!) The weekly mean temperature remained below normal by between one degree and five degrees.
Sunny days with low humidity came mainly early in the month. There were seven rain days (normal), but the highest reading was only 16.4 mm, on the 24th.

 Comparing February monthsClimate February 2013.

Mean maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures were low, like last February, but not quite as low as February 2008. As a rule, February in Manilla is practically as hot as January, but this time it was 6 degrees cooler.Record low morning dew points show the air was very dry, which is strange when there was more than usual cloud and rain.

The total rainfall (58.0 mm) was in the 56th percentile, just below the mean of 66.8 mm. Among rainfall totals for groups of months, only that for 12 months (490 mm) is below the median value.

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

 

3-year trends to February 2012

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“February 2012 very cold and wet”Trends to February 2012.

Recent partly-smoothed data points generally diverge rapidly from the near-neutral values of winter. February raw anomalies include extremely high rainfall and extremely low daily maximum and minimum temperatures.
Low humidity persists, marked by negative Dew Point anomalies, despite extreme rainfall and cloud cover.

Winter 2011 a time of trend reversal

Fully smoothed data points are now available for Winter 2011. Most variables show stable near-zero anomaly values at a time of trend reversal:
Max temp anomaly (x-axes, all graphs) had been rising since cold October 2010, but peaked in June 2011 while still negative.
Rainfall anomaly, which had reached a minimum just below zero in May, rose quite rapidly during the winter.
Cloudiness varied little around a minimum in July.
Uniquely, Dew Points were very low: the anomaly reached a new record low smoothed value of -1.70 degrees in July. This beat the drought year smoothed value of -1.48 degrees of September and October 2002.
Daily temperature range was slightly low and falling; so was daily minimum temperature. Subsoil temperature was slightly high and falling.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

February 2012 very wet

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by

The daily weather logWeather log February 2012.

As in December and January, nearly all the days and nights of February were cooler than normal. No days went over 35°, and no nights over 20°. Wednesday the 1st reached only 18.5°, which is 15.3° below normal! Rain that began three days earlier, totalled 145.2 mm by the 4th : one-fifth of a year’s rain in seven days! However, there was no flooding.
In all, February had 11 rain days, totalling 196.3 mm, with 73.2 mm on the 2nd.

Comparing February monthsClimate February 2012.

While this month’s mean daily maximum temperature was nearly 3° below normal, February 2008 was cooler on all measures.
The Dew Point was again low: very dry air persists, despite cloudy skies and extreme rainfall.
The rainfall of 193.6 mm is in the 97th percentile for February, the fifth wettest in 129 years. As this combines with the November deluge, rain totals for groups of 4, 5, and 6 months have near-record values: 4 months: 576 mm (3rd wettest); 5 months: 674 mm (4th wettest); 6 months: 765 mm (3rd wettest). Total rainfalls for longer periods, up to 30 years, are now all well above average.

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to February 2011

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Sudden Rise in Temperatures”Trends to February 2011.

In the current plots we see final smoothed trends for the winter (JJA) of 2010.

Daily Maximum Temperature

On each plot, the x-axis has the anomaly of mean daily maximum temperature.  In winter 2010 the smoothed temperature anomaly fell very rapidly to near the earlier record low smoothed value. Partially smoothed later values suggest that an extreme negative temperature anomaly came in November 2010. The raw value for February 2011 is remarkably high.

Rainfall

Rainfall anomalies are plotted (inverted) on the y-axis of the first graph. Fully-smoothed winter values were all positive, rising with falling maximum temperature. Later values generally rose rapidly to an apparent positive extreme in November.

Cloudiness

During winter of 2010 the anomaly of percent cloudy days rose to yet a new record for fully-smoothed values. It continued to rise to an apparent extreme in October 2010, since when it has remained extremely high.

Early morning Dew Point

The Dew Point anomaly was positive and rapidly rising in winter. It seems to have peaked at less than a record value in October 2010. By February the anomaly was much less positive.

Daily Temperature Range

The temperature range anomaly fell during winter to yet a new negative record for smoothed data. It continued to fall to an apparent negative peak in October 2010. The raw value for February and the little-smoothed value for January are right back near normal.

Daily minimum temperature

Winter daily minimum anomalies remained little below the peak of December 2009. Later values traced an arc through the “Equable” zone of the graph, until February’s raw value was again near the December 2009 peak (“Hot Days; Hot Nights”).

Subsoil temperature

The winter subsoil temperature anomaly was below zero and falling quite rapidly. It then accelerated downwards to an apparent negative extreme in November 2010. By February, the raw value was back higher than any point on the 3-year trace.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.