Tag Archives: 3-year

3-year trends to June 2011.

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Dry air but not warm or sunny”Trends to June 2011.

Raw anomaly data for June 2011 (shown in orange) are a little strange.
Daily max temperature, shown on the x-axis of all six graphs, has stalled without quite rising to normal from the extreme cold of last October.
Two variables indicate severe drought: Rainfall was very low, and so was the early morning Dew Point.
Most other variables are near normal, or slightly to the “flooding rains” side of normal.
Percent of cloudy mornings (>4 Octas) remains stable at a very high positive anomaly. For a calendar month that had 35% cloudy mornings in the reference decade beginning in 1999, it now has 55% cloudy mornings.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to May 2011

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Flooding rains climate peaked here in October 2010”Trends to May 2011.

Smoothed data for spring 2010

Fully smoothed data points for spring (SON) of 2010 are plotted in red on the left edge of the graphs. They show that several variables reached peak values during the season. First, temperature range anomaly reached a minimum in September. Next, in October, daily maximum temperature anomaly reached a minimum, rainfall anomaly a maximum, and Dew Point anomaly a maximum. In November, subsoil temperature anomaly reached a minimum. Cloudiness anomaly may have reached a maximum in that month, but perhaps smoothed December or January values will be higher. Daily minimum temperature anomaly did not peak. Through spring it fell steadily from a high positive value.
In a “weatherzone” post, I noted a tendency for variables to peak in a particular order.
“For a “flooding-rains” peak:

  • First: Daily Temperature Range (min);
  • One month later: Rainfall (max), Cloud (max);
  • Two months later: Daily Maximum Temperature (min), Dew Point (max);
  • Four months later: Daily Minimum Temperature (min), Subsoil Temperature (min).”

Not much is different in this case. In particular, daily temperature range was the first to peak (WHY?), and subsoil among the last. However, the time of rainfall maximum did not precede the time when daily maximum temperature reached a minimum.

Data after November 2010

During summer (DJF) most variables seemed to be moving towards “droughts” but this pattern broke down in autumn:

  • Maximum temperature anomaly did not quite reach normal before falling again;
  • Rainfall anomaly became negative then returned to positive;
  • Cloud anomaly had just one negative value before returning to record cloudiness;
  • Dew Point anomalies accelerated to extremely low values;
  • Temperature range anomaly went very positive before falling slightly;
  • Minimum temperature anomaly fell rapidly, independent of maximum temperature anomaly;
  • Subsoil temp anomaly stabilised at a slightly positive value.

I am surprised that extreme cloudiness and extreme low humidity occur together. I am also puzzled about the weak association between daily maximum and minimum temperatures. This is a worry because daily minimum temperatures provide the most consistent signal of climate change during the last century.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to April 2011.

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Sunny return from “flooding rains””Trends to April 2011

Most of the April 2011 raw data values (in orange), other than daily maximum temperature, are now on the “droughts” side of normal rather than the “flooding rains” side, which had dominated for about a year.

Smoothed October values include new 12-year record anomalies for daily maximum temperature (low) and cloudy days (high).

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to March 2011.

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Extreme cloudiness”Trends to March 2011.

Most of the March 2011 raw data values (in orange) are nearer to normal than to recent extremes. As an exception, the March cloudiness anomaly is a record +37%: there were 19 cloudy mornings instead of 8.

Smoothed September values include new 12-year record anomalies for daily maximum temperature (low), cloudy days (high) and daily temperature range (low).

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to February 2011

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Sudden Rise in Temperatures”Trends to February 2011.

In the current plots we see final smoothed trends for the winter (JJA) of 2010.

Daily Maximum Temperature

On each plot, the x-axis has the anomaly of mean daily maximum temperature.  In winter 2010 the smoothed temperature anomaly fell very rapidly to near the earlier record low smoothed value. Partially smoothed later values suggest that an extreme negative temperature anomaly came in November 2010. The raw value for February 2011 is remarkably high.

Rainfall

Rainfall anomalies are plotted (inverted) on the y-axis of the first graph. Fully-smoothed winter values were all positive, rising with falling maximum temperature. Later values generally rose rapidly to an apparent positive extreme in November.

Cloudiness

During winter of 2010 the anomaly of percent cloudy days rose to yet a new record for fully-smoothed values. It continued to rise to an apparent extreme in October 2010, since when it has remained extremely high.

Early morning Dew Point

The Dew Point anomaly was positive and rapidly rising in winter. It seems to have peaked at less than a record value in October 2010. By February the anomaly was much less positive.

Daily Temperature Range

The temperature range anomaly fell during winter to yet a new negative record for smoothed data. It continued to fall to an apparent negative peak in October 2010. The raw value for February and the little-smoothed value for January are right back near normal.

Daily minimum temperature

Winter daily minimum anomalies remained little below the peak of December 2009. Later values traced an arc through the “Equable” zone of the graph, until February’s raw value was again near the December 2009 peak (“Hot Days; Hot Nights”).

Subsoil temperature

The winter subsoil temperature anomaly was below zero and falling quite rapidly. It then accelerated downwards to an apparent negative extreme in November 2010. By February, the raw value was back higher than any point on the 3-year trace.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.