Extremely warm July 2013

The daily weather logWeather log July 2013.

There were three warm spells and no cold spells in July. Fourteen days went over 20 degrees, instead of the usual four. There were only eleven frosts, the fewest in 15 July months (usually 17). In five rain days, two high rainfall figures came on the 20th (19.2mm) and the 21st (9.6mm).

Comparing July monthsClimate July 2013.

After June’s extreme cloudiness and rain, July was very near to normal in everything but temperature. The average values of daily maximum, daily minimum, and daily mean temperature were all just under two degrees above normal. The daily maximum and daily mean are 15-year record high values, but the daily minimum had been higher in July 2010: 2.4 degrees above normal.
(Note: My “normal” is the ten year average from March 1999. For the official normal period 1961-1990 there are no Manilla figures (except rainfall). This month’s very high temperatures would be (perhaps) just over 2 degrees above the 1961-1990 average.)
Rainfall, at 29.8 mm, is in the 43rd percentile, a bit below the average (41.1mm). Rainfall totals for 24 months and more are very high. This accounts for the rare appearance of water flowing locally in Greenhatch Creek.


Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to June 2013

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Suddenly very wet”Trends to June 2013.

 

While days were only a little cooler than normal in June, moisture variables were extremely high. Rainfall, cloudiness and daily temperature range went beyond the blue lines. Cloudiness reached a record for this data set.
Both daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature were also very high.

The fully-smoothed data point for December 2012 shows a drift towards normal from the mild drought of October.

Note:
Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

June 2013: Extreme Cloud and Rain

The daily weather logWeather log June 2013.

The first weeks were warmer than usual, including a Queen’s Birthday Saturday that reached a pleasant 23°. In contrast, Tuesday the 25th reached only 9.7° making it the fifth coldest day of the century.

There were hardly any sunny mornings in the month, and most were close to overcast. Cloud kept the nights warm, limiting the number of frosts to only eight. The night of the 7th had a minimum of 12.6°, nine degrees above normal.

The wettest of 10 rain days had 38.0 mm, almost as high as a 38.2 mm reading in June 2008.

Comparing June MonthsClimate June 2013.

Extreme cloudiness and rain lead this month’s climate values. Having 73% of mornings with cloud covering more than half the sky makes this the cloudiest month in the 21st century by far. July 2010 and March 2011 reached only 61%. This month’s figure is over twice the June average of 33% cloudy mornings.

With a rainfall total of 98.0 mm, this is the eighth wettest June in 131 years. The wettest was June 1920, with 173 mm. That was the first of a cluster of four extremely wet Junes, ending with June 1931, that were among the ten wettest. Only eight years ago, June 2005 was the sixth wettest on record, at 109 mm.
This month’s rainfall defers any shortage. Among totals for more than one month, the driest is the 34th percentile for the last three months (Total 3-month rain: “only” 116 mm).
The mean daily maximum temperature, 17.3°, is just 0.5° below normal, but the mean daily minimum, 5.7°, is very high, 2.9° above normal (as in 2005, 2008 and 2009). The subsoil remains very warm.


Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

Autumn 2013 began wet

Weather log Autumn 2013Three quarters of the rain this autumn fell in the first two days: 31 mm and 45.4 mm. After that, the heaviest falls were 6.2 and 6.8 mm late in May. Days were cool with the rain, and warm in late March and late April. The warm days in late March came with warm nights, but the warm days in late April brought very wide daily temperature ranges instead.

This autumn was like autumn last year. That is, it was near average in most respects, but with high subsoil temperature and plenty of cloud. Dew points were even lower, reaching a record low value of 6.1°.
Rain fell on 11 days (normal), totalling 103 mm. This is below the 125-year autumn average of 133 mm, and in the 46th percentile.Climate autumn 2013

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to May 2013

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Still warm; not quite so dry”Trends to May 2013.

May continued warm, but not quite so dry. Skies became cloudy again, and minimum temperature rose back to normal.

Points in red for November 2012 complete fully-smoothed data for spring 2012. They define a reversal of climate. Anomalies of moisture variables (rainfall, cloud, dew point, and (minus) temperature range) peaked in the “drought” sense in September or October. The anomaly of daily maximum temperature peaked (probably) in November, and that of daily minimum temperature peaked later (date uncertain).

The curved red arrows on the first graph emphasise the fact that, for these peaks and troughs, temperature extremes came a month or more after rainfall extremes.

ENSO and this 3-year temperature-rainfall-humidity record

I discussed the match between Manilla climate variation at this time and the El Niño – Southern Oscillation in a post on the weatherzone forum thread “ENSO Discussion 2013”: Post #1195723 of 26 May 2013.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Another dry May in 2013

The daily weather logWeather log May 2013

Most days were warm and sunny, but there were cold, cloudy days from the 14th to the 24th, and three of them had a little rain. By the end of the month, there had been only 26.6 mm of rain in 90 days.
There were five frosty mornings, which is normal.

 Comparing May monthsClimate May 2013.

The mean maximum temperature was half a degree high and the mean minimum half a degree low. The mean early morning dew point (2.6°) showed low humidity, but it was not as low as the May record of 0.8° set last year. There were far more cloudy mornings (42%) than usual (24%), but fewer than in 2010 or 2011 (48%). The subsoil was 2.4° warmer than normal: its autumn cooling remained three weeks late.

The rainfall total of 13.6 mm was far below the average of 40.3 mm, but May has less rain than that in 23% of the years. Furthermore, Manilla’s May rainfall has been low for many years: in this century, only May 2011 (43.2 mm) beat the long-term average.
The two month total of 18 mm is now a severe shortage: in the 3rd percentile.


Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

 

3-year trends to April 2013

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Back to warm and very dry”Trends to April 2013.

In April the raw value of maximum temperature anomaly became high and (indicating aridity) those of rainfall, dew point, and minimum temperature extremely low, and that of temperature range extremely wide. Cloud remained normal, and subsoil temperature high.

Fully-smoothed data points (red) for October 2012 continued to move towards higher maximum temperature, but scarcely moved further towards drought.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.