21-C Rain-ENSO-IPO: Line graphs

From 1999, rainfall at Manilla NSW matched ENSO only up to 2011, before the IPO became positive.

Manilla rain, ENSO, IPO

This graphical log compares the rainfall at Manilla NSW with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) through the 21st century to date. Values shown are anomalies, smoothed. (See Notes below on “Data”, “Smoothing”, and “Lagged Rainfall”.)

Rainfall (black) uses the left axis scale; the ENSO (magenta) and the IPO (green) use the inverted right axis scale.

[21st century temperature and rainfall at Manilla are compared as smoothed data in the post “21-C Climate: Mackellar cycles”.]

Matches between rainfall and ENSO

There is an excellent match between the rainfall and ENSO values in the left part of the graph.
I improved the visual match by various means:
1. The ENSO scale (magenta) is inverted, because positive values of the ENSO anomaly relate to negative values of rainfall anomaly here.
2. The scales are harmonised: the zero values are aligned, and 20 mm of monthly rainfall anomaly is scaled to (minus) one degree of ENSO anomaly.
3. Smoothing is applied to suppress cycles shorter than 12 months.
4. Rainfall anomaly values are lagged by two months. (See the Note below.)
As lagged, most peaks and troughs of rainfall coincide with troughs and peaks of ENSO, and their sizes (as scaled) are often similar.

Failure to match rainfall and ENSO

In the right part of the graph, the match between rainfall and ENSO fails. There are extreme mismatches: the Super-El Niño of 2014-16 had no effect on local rainfall, the rainfall deluge of 2011-12 came with a mild and declining La Niña, and the extreme drought of 2018 came while ENSO was neutral.
By visual inspection, I judge that a close relation of rainfall to ENSO, which had applied for the twelve years up to September 2011, then failed for the following seven years.

Influence of the IPO

The inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) affects the relation between ENSO and Australian weather. (See note below “Effect of the IPO”.)

Power et al.(1999) show that Australian seasonal weather and its prediction align with ENSO only when the IPO is negative. It follows that a good match between ENSO and Manilla rainfall was expected while the IPO (green) was negative from 1999 to 2013, and was not expected from 2014 to 2017. The trend of the IPO through 2016-17 makes it likely that the IPO continued positive through 2018, as the mismatch between rainfall and ENSO persisted.
Power et al. note that the relation is not sensitive to the width of a neutral zone chosen to separate the positive and negative regimens of the IPO. In this particular case, the rainfall/ENSO match failed as the IPO rose through minus one degrees. However, the rainfall/ENSO match began in 1999, much earlier than the time when the IPO fell through minus one degrees.

Scatter plots

In a following post I show scatter plots and regressions for the periods of match and mismatch on this graphical log.


NOTES

Data

Rainfall

Continue reading

July 2019 had the warmest days

Ruby Saltbush Enchylaena tomentosa

Drought-proof Ruby Saltbush

Only the middle week of July was not warmer than normal. Nearly all days and nights were above average for this coldest time of the year, but none was exceptional. No night minimum was as warm as ten degrees. There were 15 frosts (normally 17), but, as happened in July 2009 and 2010, there were no severe frosts reading below minus two degrees in the screen.
Rain was recorded on the 8th and 9th, estimated as 5.0 mm and 5.5 mm.

Weather log July 2019

Comparing July months

The last three July months saw maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures steadily rising, with the temperature range (17 deg) staying high. That was not true earlier in the decade: from 2008 to 2012 temperatures were steady and the daily temperature range (14 deg) was low, with cool days and warm nights. It was the case again in July 2015 and 2016, as shown here.
Indicators of moisture were again low, but not as low as in July 2018, with its record low dewpoint and cloudiness. The (estimated) rainfall total of 10.5 mm is at the 14th percentile for July.

Climate at July 2019

Drought

I have reported separately on the on-going drought that continues to break low-rainfall records at durations of 15-months and longer.


Data. A Bureau of Meteorology automatic rain gauge operates in the museum yard. From 17 March 2017, 9 am daily readings are published as Manilla Museum, Station 55312.  These reports use that rainfall data when it is available.  Since no 9 am readings have been recorded since August 2018, I have substituted my non-standard gauge readings for all days.
All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to July 2019

Record dry and warm (as smoothed)

3-year climate trends to July 2019

July raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes): above the maximum for smoothed values.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): just above the upper limit of normal values.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): very high.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left): very low.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): normal.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): low, like the other recent values.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right): very high.

 Latest fully smoothed data (red), January 2019

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature was a new record positive value of +1.79 deg, beating +1.62 deg set in March and December 2018.
Daily minimum temperature set a new record of +2.18 deg, beating +1.98 deg set the previous month.
Subsoil was normal due to phase lag.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall smoothed anomaly was a new 136-year record value of minus 31.75 mm per month, breaking the record of minus 30.8 mm set the previous month.
Cloudiness was normal.
Dew point was low.
Daily temperature range was normal.


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

Smoothing Continue reading

Drought worse in July.

At Manilla, most rainfall totals just got lower.
Rainfall status June and July 2019

Graph of Rainfall Shortages

This graph shows all the present rainfall shortages at Manilla, short term and long term, as percentile values. The latest values, as at the end of July, are shown by a thick black line with large circles. Those from one month earlier are shown by a thinner line with small diamonds. [The method is described in “Further Explanation” below.]

Results for July

Rainfall totals for months to July 2019 are the lowest ever registered here for six of the twenty-five chosen rainfall durations: 15-, 18-, 24-, 30-, 72- and 84-months.
Only three of the chosen durations do not have serious rainfall shortages below the 10th percentile: 1-month, 3-months and 360-months. Even those three values are far below normal, at the 12th, 14th, and 14th percentiles.

Weatherzone forum closed

I posted a provisional version of this graph to catch the final deadline for posting to the weatherzone forum. My first post was nearly 16 years ago.
That forum is now closed to postings and will close completely in November. It closed due to lack of public interest in climate and weather in Australia.


Further Explanation

The following notes explain aspects of this work under these listed headings:

Data analysis

Cumulative rainfall totals
Percentile values
Severity of rainfall shortages

Limitations of this analysis

Monthly rainfalls form a single population
Observations are not retrospective
The rain gauge failed

Data analysis

Continue reading

21-C Climate: Mackellar cycles

At Manilla, NSW, the anomaly of daily maximum temperature has continued to track, in the opposite sense, that of monthly rainfall.

Graphical log of smoothed rainfall and temperature.

The values shown are anomalies from normal values, smoothed to suppress cycles shorter than 12 months. (See notes below on Normals and Smoothing.)

The pattern is of quasi-biennial cycles that express the insight of Dorothea Mackellar that this is a land “of droughts and flooding rains*. Hot dry times alternate with cool wet times. For temperature, I have chosen the mean daily maximum, as it best matches the rainfall.

This post updates others in the Menu Category “Manilla NSW/21st century climate/Anomalies smoothed”, such as “17 years of ‘Droughts and Flooding Rains’ at Manilla” (29/06/2014).

“Droughts” (hot dry times)

Winter-spring 2002. The drought of 2002 was extreme, having rainfall in the lowest 1% in history. Lowest rainfall anomaly was in the winter and highest temperature anomaly in the spring.

Spring 2009. The temperature anomaly in spring 2009 was as high as in 2002, but the rainfall (as smoothed) barely qualified as “drought”.

Spring-summer 2013. The maximum temperature anomaly in spring 2013 was again like that in 2002 and 2009. This time, the rainfall minimum came later, in the summer. The drought was severe but not extreme.

Autumn-winter 2018. The temperature anomaly peak was higher than the earlier peaks. The minimum rainfall anomaly that followed in the winter was again extreme.

Summer 2018-19. At this time, the temperature anomaly was the highest, and the rainfall anomaly the lowest on this graph.

“Flooding Rains” (cool wet times)

Spring 2005. The spring of 2005 was wet, but the temperature was not cool but rather warm.

Summer 2007-8. Although the summer of 2007-8 was cool, rainfall was normal. Continue reading

June 2019 still warm and dry

Road in Manilla

The Bendemeer road

The second week was 3.2° warmer than normal, the third week cool, and the fourth warm again. There were 12 frosts (normally 13), with that on the 22nd reading minus 4.3° in the screen. It was one of only 20 readings below minus 4.0° this century.
The wettest of the four rain days registered only 2.3 mm.

Weather log June 2019

Comparing June months

The mean temperature for June has changed little in recent years. It has slowly fallen from 11.5° in 2013 to 10.8°. That is higher by 0.5° than the 10.3° that was normal in the first decade of this century. This month’s mean daily maximum (18.3°) and mean daily minimum (3.3°) were also just 0.5° above normal.
This June was a little more moist than last June in its higher dew point and narrower daily temperature range but less moist in cloudiness and rainfall. The low total rainfall of 4.8 mm (est.) is at the 8th percentile, the 12th driest June on record.
Climate for June 2019

Drought

The on-going unprecedented drought is reported in another post.


Data. A Bureau of Meteorology automatic rain gauge operates in the museum yard. From 17 March 2017, 9 am daily readings are published as Manilla Museum, Station 55312.  These reports use that rainfall data when it is available.  Since no 9 am readings have been recorded since August 2018, I have substituted my non-standard gauge readings for all days.
All other data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to June 2019

June warm and dry

3-yeqr climate trends to June 2019

June raw anomaly data (orange)

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature anomaly (all x-axes): near the upper limit of normal values.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly (lower left): near the upper limit of normal values.
Subsoil temperature anomaly (lower right): very high.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall anomaly (upper left): very low.
Cloudiness anomaly (upper right): normal.
Dew point anomaly (middle left): low, like the other recent values.
Daily temperature range anomaly (middle right): normal.

 Latest fully smoothed data (red), December 2018

Temperatures

Daily maximum temperature equaled the record positive value of +1.62° set in March 2018.
Daily minimum temperature set a new record of +1.98°, beating +1.65° set the previous month.
Subsoil was normal due to phase lag.

Moistures (moist is at the bottom)

Rainfall smoothed anomaly was a new 136-year record value of -30.8 mm per month, breaking the record of -29.7 mm set the previous month.
Cloudiness was normal.
Dew point was low.
Daily temperature range was normal.


Notes:

January data points are marked by squares.

Smoothing

Smoothing uses Gaussian functions.
For fully smoothed data the function has a Standard Deviation of 2.5 months, it spans 13 monthly data points, and has a half-width of 6 months, which suppresses cycles shorter than 12 months. For partly smoothed data, the span of the function is reduced to 11 months, 9 months and so on.
Continue reading